Scientific method in an era of magical thinking

Scientific method and critical thinking are the only known, proven and repeatably reliable way to understand the world and our place in it.

I decided to write this short article motivated by the many dramatic developments around the world, with main one being the fanatic attack on Salman Rushdie, a man who lived in hiding most of his life, received fatwas and death threats and just got stabbed for expressing free speech and free thought. 

Also:

• Historical droughts, heat waves, ecological disasters around the world,
• accelerating climate disaster,
• war between russia and Ukraine,
• pandemics, the anti-vax movement, flat-earthers,
• mass extinction,
• religious fanatics, faith healers, quantum quacks, 
• repeating financial and economic meltdowns following the exact same patterns,
• denial of science, denial of data, denial of truth etc.

An unshakable impression I get, and it's more stronger every day, is that there is a dangerous lack of rationality and critical thinking in our society.

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance” 

Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World

Is there a fault on the side of scientific community? Unfortunately there may be...

I sometimes see situations where overly agreeable or meek scientists, critical thinkers and philosophers will bend over backwards to accommodate irrationality in a discussion, just to not hurt someones feelings. They might use phrases like “we could be wrong” or “we could never be 100% certain” in an effort to smooth the conversation, hoping the other side understands such clarifications for what they are i.e. expressions of scientific rigour and curiosity. Unfortunately more frequently such words are taken by the irrational side as ammunition, justification that “science is always changing its mind”, ironically proving the point that emotions cloud judgement. Sadly the irony is lost on the scientifically challenged…

"Science adjusts its views based on what's observed. Faith is the denial of observation, so that belief can be preserved."

Tim Minchin

In a post-truth world defending truth requires strength of will and unwavering character. You might need to fight, but do not fear if data is on your side.

I long advised critical thinkers to give no ground. I view our purpose and mission is to elevate humanity from its intellectual dark age.

Religion was dragged out of the dark ages kicking and screaming. Mental health used to be the domain of demons, the cosmos was revolving around earth which itself used to be flat. Sickness was gods wrath instead of bacteria, viruses or parasites. Health was a blessing instead of nutrition and hygiene based. And the countless free thinkers burned at the stake or persecuted for the audacity to think and ask questions, like Giordano Bruno or Galileo, make me loose sleep at night.

Our world is reaching a level of complexity which does not leave any room for magical thinking. Unfortunately there is plenty still around. We will simply not be able to maintain the technological marvel we created if there is nobody who understands how it works, or worse yet, doesn't understand how to understand.

I fear the immortal words of Carl Sagan are more true today than they were ~15 years ago.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. And this combustible mixture of ignorance and power, sooner or later, is going to blow up in our faces. Who is running the science and technology in a democracy if the people don't know anything about it?”

Carl Sagan

No need for nuclear war, it looks like the climate catastrophe will be enough.

"Science is more than a body of knowledge, it's a way of thinking. A way of skeptically interrogating the universe with a fine understanding of human fallibility. If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we're up for grabs for the next charlatan, political or religious, who comes ambling along.”

Carl Sagan

We are in a precarious situation. We will depend on future generations to help solve the existential dangers we created by never caring about the future, the sustainability of that we are doing, the impact on society. Are we equipping next generations and ourselves today with the best intellectual tool for the job, or should we consult our fortune teller?

Scientific method in a nutshell, paraphrasing Richard Feynman:

1. Have an idea about how the world works. Your idea must be falsifiable, otherwise the idea is meaningless and has no predictive or explanatory power.
2. Make a prediction using your idea. Be precise. If we assume X, what else must be true?
3. Compare the prediction to the real world. Make a test. Perform an observation. Measure stuff.
4. If your prediction does not agree with the real world, your idea is wrong.

I attempted to produce here a list of “commandments” to follow. I hope someone will find them valuable.

1. It is our holiest mission to embrace enlightenment and do justice to the efforts of giants, on whose shoulders we are standing.
2. Free speech and free inquiry is the basis of our modern world, without which we loose everything. However remember free speech is not a license to be a malignant hate monger. Do you use your free speech to express negative emotions or facts? If the answer is negative emotions, stop. Emotions are a great motivator, they can point us towards important things, but we can be wrong…
3. Critical thinking should never be suspended nor sacrificed for anything or anyone. It is the paramount achievement of humanity and must be celebrated. Be enthusiastically open to honestly challenging your own beliefs.
4. Embrace scientific method. Strive to believe as many true things and as few false things as possible. Understand the causal chain of events and reduce explanations to first principles or ideas already known to be true.
5. Morality and the wellbeing of conscious creatures, including humans, is not a metaphysical problem. It can and should be understood scientifically as a set of truth claims, which must be investigated like anything else in our natural universe. Familiarise yourself with Sam Harris and his book “The Moral Landscape”. YouTube.
6. Do not become distracted by your or others emotions. Emotions, both positive and negative, prevent us from diligently following the scientific method and thinking critically. They can easily lead to accepting falsehoods which feel comfortable.
7. Live in balance with nature. Understand happiness does not come from more things once your needs are met. Strive to understand your impact on the world both today and tomorrow. Embrace minimalism. Walk instead of driving a car, socialise with others, ask for help, depend on others, show humanity.
8. Do not chase profits at the price of loosing your humanity. Unchecked, valueless, shameless capitalism, exploitation, modern slavery, pyramid schemes etc. is also part of how we got into our current mess.
9. Be open to differences in cultures, tastes, views and opinions, but only if those differences don’t require you to abandon or suspend rationality, critical thinking and scientific method.
10. By default, approach everyone with respect, charity and without malice, but always be ready to defend yourself and your beliefs. Understand what you believe and why.
11. If you do not have a rational and logical reason for your beliefs, abandon those beliefs. Do not lie to yourself. Do not deceive others.
12. Do not be naive or weak. Train your body and your mind to be the strongest and most competent you can be. Do not let other take advantage of you. Distance yourself from toxic individuals.
13. Give everyone a fair chance to explain themselves. Do not respect those opinions or beliefs which fail to have a rational and logical explanation. Opinions don’t need to be respected, people should be.
14. Not everyone understands, values or accepts the scientific method and critical thinking. Consider educating others but know you will sometimes fail. Value your own time and effort. Commit yourself to helping those who will appreciate your help, or better yet those who ask for it.
15. You do not have to understand everything right away. It is okay to take mental shortcuts if the effort required is unjustified, but remember you are taking a shortcut. Strive to come back and understand later, or reevaluate once the topic becomes more consequential to your life.
16. Your freedoms do not operate in a vacuum. Individual choices have impact on the whole world. While thinking about your freedoms and privileges do not forget about your responsibilities, to yourself, to your family, your community and the whole world.
17. Take ownership of both your successes and your failures. Do not unjustly push blame onto others. Understand your are not perfect, learn from your mistakes and do not dwell on the past. Fix your future. Continuously improve. The world doesn’t owe you anything.

As life is complicated, I do not expect this list to be exhaustive. I plan to continuously improve it. This seems a good place to start.

If you don’t know the following authors I strongly recommend reading some of their work or viewing their talks.

• Richard Dawkins: Selfish Gene, God Delusion
• Sam Harris: Free Will, Letter to a Christian Nation
• Steven Pinker: Enlightenment Now, Rationality
• Christopher Hitchens 
• Carl Sagan
• Neil DeGrasse Tyson
• Matt Dillahunty - the man who changed my life, one logical argument after another.
• Stephen Fry
• George Carlin
• Richard Feynman
• Bertrand Russell
• Ricky Gervais
• David Attenborough
• Paul Bloom
• Bill Maher
• Terry Pratchett
• Michael Shermer
• TheraminTrees - I do recommend everyone to watch all videos by this author.

Margaret Downey is one of my top atheist role models. Founder and President of the Freethought Society, founder of the Anti-Discrimination Support Network, tireless champion of equal rights for non-theists.

I believe in a better future, for your children and mine. Let's make it a reality together!