Scotland's changing landscape - what could be on the horizon?

With Scotland’s BMW landfill ban set to come into force in 2025, the country’s waste infrastructure is already under immense pressure. Waste operators and local authorities are working hard to strike a balance between remaining compliant, remaining profitable and supporting customers in achieving their ESG goals.

Scotland is focused on reducing the environmental impact of biodegradable waste that is destined for landfill via the AT4 test, measures biodegradable waste’s stability and ensures that only stable waste that can’t break down further or release GHGs, odour and leachate goes to landfill. It’s a significant change for the country and forcing those within the industry to consider other disposal routes – whether that’s waste crossing the border into England, where AT4 compliance is not yet implemented, or investing in innovative solutions that support a more circular way of thinking.

The UK’s Spring Budget also spotlighted waste when Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced the standard rate of Landfill tax would rise to £126.15 per tonne, and the lower rate would increase to £4.05 per tonne in 2025-26. This, combined with Energy from Waste (EfW) being brought under the ETS from 2028 and the decision to halve waste sent to landfill by 2042, was a clear signal from the government that operators must consider their long-term waste strategy and look for alternative offtake methods, particularly for independent waste operators who won’t be able to afford price hikes.

The question is, will Scotland follow suit with a rise in Landfill Tax, and how will this impact operators in an already pressurised environment?

We polled our LinkedIn followers, asking: ‘The recent announcement of a 21.6% increase in England's Landfill Tax has sparked discussions within the waste sector. What action is Scotland likely to take?’ A massive 67% voted that Scotland would match the increase, while another 11% believe the Scottish government will impose an even higher tax rate. Predictions are echoed by RMAS, whose recent research confirmed that Scotland would have to follow suit if the UK increased or decreased the tax rate.

If Scotland opts to maintain current rates, it will encourage carbon-heavy movement across the border and discourage investment in alternatives to landfill. In contrast, the combined impact of the ban on biodegradable waste and the potential tax increase is likely to drive more waste away from landfill and encourage much-needed innovation in the treatment of waste. 

The immediate response to industry changes will likely be to send more material, such as RDF, to EfW plants, domestically and exported into Europe. However, if waste is used as RDF for EfWs, the introduction of the ETS in the EU and UK will add further cost and, therefore, be another catalyst for greater innovation – such as increased plastics sorting and recycling to reduce the impact of ETS. This is particularly true as landfill will no longer be a viable route for some of these materials as they will be banned, so alternatives will be required.

When the traditional disposal routes increase in price, profit margins become tighter, and waste operators, especially independent ones, will seek the most economically viable route for waste treatment and disposal. This is essential to avoid passing price increases onto customers and losing business to bigger players who can absorb the additional cost.

Therefore, independent waste handlers must look for alternative offtake routes opening up as industries move towards greater decarbonisation. If undertaking waste treatment such as Advetec’s biotechnology method becomes financially viable, then waste operators are likely to invest—particularly when you consider that the SRF offtake market is rapidly growing to about 4m tonnes per year. Advetec’s technology helps operators identify the right off-taker for the specific SRF produced from their customers’ waste according to waste characterisation and extensive output testing.

Being open-minded to such innovation will ensure independent operators safeguard their operations against legislative change and futureproof their organisation in an ever-evolving marketplace.