Self-Driving Trucks Will Disrupt the Future of Logistics

Automation Will Mean Truckers Lose their Jobs

The Future of Work Is Not What You Think

Recently Convoy, a trucking startup founded by former Amazon Execs got $400 million in funding from investors including the likes of Al Gore. They are being called the "Uber of logistics".

Meanwhile, Presidential democratic candidate, Andrew Yang, is probably running about 8 years too early. But by 2028 the world is a vastly different place. Logistics and trucking are one of those spaces to watch, along with SO many others.

I’m seeing a lot of skepticism about automation, whether in studies or online forums & social media. Nobody thinks a bloodbath for some of our jobs are coming to retail, transportation or finance, or that it will impact their jobs. That’s only normal, right?

Hype, Myth or Slow Burn Advent of Robots?

The hype of technological automation always comes slower than the doomsayers say. But that’s not the same thing as saying that it’s not coming, am I right? As a fringe Yang-Gang member, I often wonder about the future of work.

To me, transportation is more radical a disruption then cashiers, retail sales jobs, and fast-food industry workers, probably put together. This is because transportation includes logistics and there are huge incentives to automate it so far as is possible.

This is because the truck driver is one of the most common American middle class white male jobs. And I think they are doomed.

Does Automation Really Impact the Landscape of America’s Most Common Jobs?

Even in 2019, just like in Retail, in trucking, we are seeing the beginning of the wave. Nobody is talking about it! At least 2,500+ truck drivers have lost their jobs in 2019 as the transportation ‘bloodbath’ unfolds. Why don’t we talk about it?

But that’s nothing compared to the actual reality, right? The federal government puts the number of heavy truck drivers at 1.8 million. As automation hits, how many of these do you suppose will be at risk?

This is an $800 billion industry we are talking about. Trucking and logistics and their future aren’t very human, in my humble opinion.

But hang on a second, if people matter maybe advances will create even more jobs? Skeptics (of the trucking bloodbath scenario) in the industry, government, and academia are saying trucking jobs will not be endangered by autonomous driving, and in the brightest scenarios, as in new research by Uber’s Advanced Technologies Group, there may be an increase in trucking jobs as more self-driving vehicles are introduced.

So in a world of so much misinformation and lack of fact checking, who are we to believe? Can we trust Uber? It’s in their best interests to say that their solution would make the world a better place, am I right?

End of the Road for Truckers?

If you read the blogs of trucking companies, they talk about “people taking the lead”. That’s not, I’m afraid, how automation will occur in the real world. AI, Machines, and robots will increasingly be taking the opportunity. But it’s a question of how fast that transition will occur.

Nobody wants to scare their workers. Truckers (like the rest of us) think machines or robots could never do what they put up with. I think by 2030, we’ll see such a different world a lot of these people working today as truckers will have to take early retirement packages.

Can you imagine? 8 million Americans, mainly men, drive heavy trucks for a living, the single most common job in many U.S. states. Driving is one of the biggest occupations in the world. Another 1.7 million people drive taxis, buses and delivery vehicles in the U.S. alone. Well, they are in for a rude awakening.

The Next Wave of Job Disruptions, Circa 2025

Transportation automation could easily impact 2 million workers alone.

Don’t get me wrong. The enemy is too big. Google (Waymo), Uber, Tesla Amazon and the major truck manufacturers are looking to a future in which people like that white American male will be replaced — or at the very least downgraded to co pilots — by automated vehicles that will save billions but will cost millions of jobs.

The trucking industry is expected to be disrupted by driverless technology in the coming decades. It could take ten years to see significant changes, it could take longer. Suffice to say it’s skills shortages that could fuel the path to automation in a bunch of industries in North America in the coming years.

That’s how the real world works and industries change. The necessity of cost-cutting in healthcare and even education will, within this century, lead to the same thing. It’s a paradox because these advancements will also create a bunch of new jobs (not always however at the same pace).

Uber sees a future in which self-driving trucks drive highway miles between what they call transfer hubs, where human drivers will take over for the last miles through complex urban and industrial terrain. God knows sometimes what Tesla sees.

Apple might even have skin in the game, after all is said and done. If Waymo goes well, logistics and last-mile robotic delivery might be the next battleground between Google and Amazon. Waymo One has to be one of Alphabet's most promising other bets.

The future of trucking is more complicated than it seems. Legacy trucking and logistics companies or startups will obviously be in trouble, competing against larger forces outside of their control. Here’s a domain where you won’t be able to compete with robots, literally.

A report issued earlier this year by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) is warning that autonomous trucks could displace as many as 900,000 professional truck drivers in as soon as the next decade (the 2020s).

The report entitled, “Automated Trucking: Federal Agencies Should Take Additional Steps To Prepare For Potential Workforce Effects,” was published on March 7, 2019 and, to this point, has received very little coverage in the establishment trucking press.

A Tale of Two Trucker Trends

It’s not rocket science, guys. They see two possible scenarios:

• Long-haul highway driving will be fully automated, resulting in fewer trucking jobs and possibly lower wages, or
• Self-driving trucks may still need operators, possibly changing the skillset and wages without significantly affecting the number of trucking jobs.

Whatever you believe will happen, the future is coming.

It’s coming right at you, gunning for your blue-collar jobs.

It’s adapt or die time. For retail, for truckers and, frankly, for a lot of things and people in the 2025 to 2050 period.

As we get used to the advent of robots, robo-transport and increasing automation in logistics systems, we have to assume robots will even become involved in the last mile delivery problem that’s so expensive for retailers.

Automation won’t just impact truckers, bus drivers, Uber & Lyft drivers, but delivery people and package delivery folk. It’s across the board. When we talk about robots coming, we aren’t exaggerating.

Listen, even the “trade war” is impacting the livelihood of the first wave of truckers losing their jobs in 2019. Think about that white American demographic, right? Truckers voted for Donald Trump in droves. Now, they say his trade war is ‘killing’ their ability to make a living.

Truck drivers tend to be conservative. The very kind of skeptics about technology you might expect to be resilient and doubtful (Gen X) about the potential of smart machines.

Truck drivers supported Trump massively, according to an Overdrive magazine survey from 2016. Around 75% said they planned to vote for Trump, up from 66% who supported Sen. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012. Trump will likely no longer be in office by the time the trucking jobs apocalypse hits mainstream proportions.

Just like in retail, upgrading logistics with automation will take decades, not years. However, if Amazon is any indication, starting to invest in the space, they know the future is closer than many of us do. Connect the dots on your own. It’s good to be skeptical.

Every week, a major tech company seems to announce some new development in automated trucking. This doesn’t mean truckers will suddenly be sent home. But it means the industry needs to adapt. Putting people first is simply not enough. Since BigTech will squeeze logistics in ways that we can't yet fathom, even with the promise of self-driving trucks and drones.

The median trucker salary is actually about $42,000. With shortages in some places and job losses in others, it’s hard to see what’s really going on. Automated trucks, including self-driving trucks, are being developed for long-haul trucking operations, but widespread commercial deployment is likely years or decades away. Trucking jobs aren’t doomed, but they aren’t safe.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) has been consulting with the Department of Labor (DOL) in conducting a congressionally-directed analysis of the workforce impacts of automated trucking, in the Spring of 2019. I’ve not seen the results, but I’m pretty sure even they won’t be able to analyze the future of this industry accurately.

This is because the true potential of a Waymo, or a Tesla or everyone else combined in the self-driving space is not known yet. The fate of white American trucker jobs, though, isn’t bright in North America. We have to start to face the facts: if you work in transportation or retail, your livelihood is under threat by smarter machines that will only get smarter.

Trucking is highly cyclical, and we’re coming off from a massive uptick in the market and we’re prone to thinking humans matter more than automation in small business and the logistics trucking world. But what got us ahead might not work any longer. One day the rules of our industry and culture will shift. We want to put our guys first, but a ruthless economic press is coming like a tidal wave of automation.

Automated vehicle technology may eventually make commercial trucking more efficient and safer, but it also has the potential to change the employment landscape for nearly 1.9 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, among others.

The Future won’t care about us, that’s why we have to care about the future. I’m a futurist and I cover the future of work in retail, trucking, logistics, sales, marketing and the future of society in general in the 21st century, when AI, machine learning, robotics, and smart machines will transform the landscape of work.

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