Senegal: time to pay attention

The most consequential news story today is not the health of a small island nation's ageing monarch (though I wish him well). Instead, it's Senegal's postponed elections and the risk to regional and global stability.

The post-2016 era of geopolitics is one of multipolar confusion and a new rush to influence countries gaining stature.

Senegal has always been the most stable country in the decolonising Sahel region, with peaceful transitions of power stemming from a truly pluralistic politics and wider society. I was lucky enough to spend time in Dakar and St Louis last November, and was blown away by the richness and diversity of these places: a 98% Islamic country with visibly free political and religious expression, amazing polyrhythmic music, and sublime food. Having grown up partly in Brazil, so much of what I had experienced there suddenly made bittersweet sense.

But that stability is now under threat. For the first time, the country's elections (due to take place this month) have been postponed. There are major concerns over the motivations of the incumbent president and questions about the legitimacy of judicial decisions against opposition candidates.

Senegal is a critical player in ECOWAS, West Africa's political and economic union - which Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger (three countries governed by recently-established military juntas) quit last week.

Why is this important?

Firstly, and most importantly because people everywhere - and especially in states that bore the brunt of colonial abuses - deserve stable democratic institutions, processes, and rule of law, with all the attendant benefits that they bring. I speak for myself when I say we should pay more attention when those benefits are at risk.

Secondly, because the Sahel region is an 'epicentre of terrorism'. Nearly half of deaths globally caused by terrorism happen there and that contagion frequently spreads to other parts of Africa and the globe. This is not contained within the African continent; it directly affects the Middle East, Europe and the Americas.

Thirdly, because the historical post-WWII blip of international order, relative peace, and growing liberty has been over for some time. The USA and European powers are fading in relevance and influence at the same time that Russia and especially China are growing.

While Russia is in many ways a failed state, Putin never misses an opportunity: just last week, Burkina Faso received 25,000 tons of wheat 'free' from Russia, while the malignant presence of the mercenary Wagner Group in Mali, Central African Republic and other African nations is now (belatedly) well-known.

What are the implications?

At the moment, for those in Europe and the USA (who make up the vast majority of those who may read this), this is a watching brief rather than a full crisis. But given the escalating number of conflicts already underway, the 'Western' world should be extremely wary of the Sahel region further spiralling into instability.

Senegal is only among the first of many countries around the world with planned elections in 2024. A time when democracies concentrate on the domestic is a time when undemocratic countries can capitalise and further tip the balance against peace and progress.

Fundamentally, in an era where the importance of democracy is increasingly contested, the implications are clear: those who value life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness need to make personal and professional decisions that explicitly support the public good.