seven drivers that shape the future

chapter 1

introduction

We have all seen the data and the headlines: what we are currently living is presenting us with the worse economic and social scenarios since the Great Depression. In what the IMF calls 'The Great Lockdown', it is forecasted that the World’s product will decrease by, at least, 3% in 2020 in real terms – which compares to a 0,1% decrease in the financial crisis of 2009. And, although several international institutions forecast a partial recovery in 2021, the fact is that there’s severe uncertainty on the path ahead. Overall, the combined loss of the global GDP could exceed 9 trillion US dollars across 2020/21. To put the figure in perspective that’s roughly the equivalent to a year’s production of Germany, the UK and France combined. And a non-controlled pandemic going through 2021 could knock another 8% out of the World’s income. Inevitably this means unemployment will increase sharply, with countries like the US seeing all the job creation since the end of the Financial crisis simply erased in the US – we’ve seen 26,5 million jobs gone in 5 weeks. 

Because of its extraordinary nature, seeking an answer to how severe and how long will this recession be, depends heavily on the pace of science – after all, this wasn’t caused by the collapse of the stock market and the ill-fated actions of a central bank, a war on resources or the bankruptcy of a financial institution.  

The general consensus amongst virologists seems to be that the pandemic will only end by obtaining herd immunity. And this will be achieved when enough people have become immune to the virus, so that it runs out of people to infect. The path for natural immunity to occur from being infected, at least for now, seems to be unlikely[1].The alternative is the development of an extremely effective vaccine that would be scaled up for the whole of humanity as was the case with smallpox.  

Consequently, getting to such point, seems to be a tremendously difficult goal, achievable only in a longer term. So, amidst significant uncertainty, the most likely consideration seems to be that we will need to face the reality: live with it.  

What is significantly different in this context from, lets’ say, the previous depressions, is that the underlying cause deeply challenges what we value most. It imperils not just our jobs or businesses but our own lives and the ones of those we love. It changes our view of the world, of how we behave and how we [will need to] work. As a society, this is probably only comparable to experiencing war… without a visible enemy. 

Within this context, resuming social and economic activity presents risks, but it is inevitable. And we would further state that, in a significant number of ways – ranging from minimizing unemployment and securing families’ income to ensuring mental and physical wellbeing – it is highly desirable (at least for a significant part of the general population). So, regardless of what we might hope, just simply getting out and going back to work whilst expecting that all will be as before, is not possible. Let us repeat, going back to the ‘old normal’ is not an option.  

In some aspects, life will need to adjust only temporarily, but in a significant number of ways we believe a ‘new normal’ has just been accelerated. 

seven drivers that shape the future 

At pur’ple, we’ve reflected on what social and economic trends are being accelerated that affect work and organizations, and we believe there are seven movements, engine drivers, that are already shaping the future of work.

1. purpose is an imperative. We believe purpose is no longer an option, it has become an imperative. Never before, for most of today’s global active workforce, has the focus been more on a shared purpose and created so much energy for a common good.  By joining this movement, in so many different ways, they’ve tasted its power: as citizens, consumers or employees. This means that, for organizations, the quest for a bigger clarity on their role in society beyond profit, is now paramount to survival. The ones that fail this test will not survive the judgment of their clients, employees and society as a whole. Thus, purpose has become more than just an opportunity - to align their teams, to influence consumers, to present proof of value to stakeholders. It has become an imperative, not an option. 
2. rewire leadership. We believe leadership needs to undergo deep renovation. The boundaries of leadership have been re-drawn: beyond formal leadership, acceleration needs to be embodied by real leaders that emerge from the ranks, seamlessly shifting in as starlings in flight, showing true empathy and instilling trust in their teams. Resilient, flexible and agile, they become beacons of working towards a common purpose. 
3. organizations become ecosystems. We believe organizations need to transform into true networks – ecosystems that redefine the traditional ‘industry’ concept. To face disruption, survive and compete, organizations will need to be leaner, more agile and quick to act, further reinventing themselves. Hyper collaboration has proven itself and to widen their key competencies, but also to transform fixed into variable costs, organizations will turn to the gig economy and other firms, becoming networks and ecosystems. 
4. digital as a human experience. We believe digital should merge the human touch. It is impossible to put that digital genie back in the bottle, once we win over this pandemic. Digitization has been pushed on all of us literally overnight and made clear that organizations will need to move quickly into transforming that digital experience for clients and employees alike into one that regains its human nature. 
5. go beyond the workspace. We believe the workspace will morph into an hybrid. Where previously, employers and employees alike saw only barriers, a virus has succeeded in pushing a significant portion of the workforce into their homes and experience the advantages (and shortfalls) of not commuting to work every day. Moving ahead and managing foreseeable new outbreaks in the short term will reinforce this even more. The physical workplace as given room to a hybrid workplace.
6. create the collective brain. We believe that organizations will base their competitive advantage on learning. The organization’s ability to survive will clearly be judged on its capability to compete on the rate of learning. We believe the key for this is to move even further and transform learning into a new paradigm: from a directive and centralized training policy into a collective brain that relies on the power of each neuron to learn and connect with others.
7. sit HR at the table. We believe HR should become CPO. If there was any doubt to the paramount importance of the HR function, the Coronavirus outbreak has created the conditions to clearly differentiate those leaders who have put people’s safety above all, who have dug the teams out of panic, who have accelerated new ways of working and clearly contributed to focus and kept them moving. These have earned the right to be at the Executive table. They have fought the battle and won.

We are living the challenge of a generation. We all have been summoned to it and we need to raise to what’s at stake, act and move on!

Article written by Rui Luz and João Almeida

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In the next weeks, we will be providing additional insights on why we believe each of  these 7 drivers are shaping the future of work and how you too can release their power in your organization. 

[1] According to the WEF, a study in China on discharged patients of COVID-19 as revealed that ca. 15% have tested positive again, sometime after been cured. Additionally, even in the case of achieving enough antibodies to be immune, how that immunity behaves over time is still to be seen.