Shanghai: What To Do Next?

This is now my tenth consecutive day in Shanghai lockdown!

Firstly, I want to thank all of the remarkable and extremely hard-working healthcare workers in Shanghai and throughout China who are doing an unbelievable job helping people every day, performing never ending testing & diagnosis for those who are being impacted by Covid. There are heroes everywhere, whether it's in the local community as volunteers helping the elderly or mothers with numerous children, community management companies making sure that everyone is getting some basic food; police, fire, and government doing their utmost to keep people safe and systems working. We should applaud everyone who is trying their best to get through this challenging time.

Shanghai is one of the most dynamic, creative and innovative cities in the world. What makes it great is its people, who come from throughout China and around the world to do whatever they want to do, make things that you never thought people make, prosper, risk, sometimes fail, only to stand up and try again. Shanghainese, whether they have been born here or moved here, are a people who build their lives on doing what they want to do, every day and in every way and we will endure!

Before I share my thoughts today, I must stress that I am not a medical doctor, not a virologist, not a public healthcare professional and certainly not a civic leader. I am just a citizen, a business owner, investor, employer, father, husband, man who is getting tired of being locked down, struggling to do the right things and keep the ship moving. Sometimes I see things and I ask why? Sometimes I think things and ask why not?

The responsibility of power is to make decisions for the benefit of all. In times of crisis, this responsibility takes on a greater urgency and importance in weighing the greater good over the ideological and political. This responsibility entails more than just good ideas, but making sure that it actually happens, implemented, effectively, efficiently and to the benefit of as many people as possible.

In a highly risk adverse society such as China, decisions are fraught with danger. But it is in times like this, that leadership needs to stand and do what is right, for the betterment of all, majority and minority, with the never ending focus of keeping the ship moving in the right direction. Mistakes are always part of the game. It's how well you recover from them that's the mark of a great player.

Testing everybody in Shanghai is just like taking your temperature. It gives you information about the moment. Maybe it helps to identify people who are ill. But it does not guarantee that those today will not be infected tomorrow or one week later or one month later.

In Shanghai we are in total lockdown, trying to stomp out an outbreak. But this is not the solution. There is no purpose for Shanghai if we are locked down forever. There is no reason to be here if we cannot live, do business, take our chances and do whatever it is that we want to do.

Lockdowns cannot be perfect. Community testing cannot guarantee that everybody is tested. The cost of the lockdown is staggering, especially in a city that is the epicenter of business, finance, insurance, culture and more.

People need to eat, people need healthcare that has nothing to do with Covid. Babies are being born. These past days, the weather has brought us azure blue skies, shining sun, warm winds and spring flowers. Hopefully a sign of rebirth.

Although Omicron is certainly more contagious, daily infection reports from the Shanghai Health Ministry confirm that it is overwhelmingly asymptomatic. The old test, trace, treat, ring fencing that worked effectively in early 2020 is now too slow and cumbersome to be effective.

With a shorter incubation, Omicron infections can be identified faster, resulting in short term lockdowns while a community is tested. Tamping down the spread of the transmission as an alternative to citywide lockdowns. Like a weekend curfew - tapping on the brakes to slow down a car that is going a bit too fast.

But lockdowns and testing are not the cure or the solution. One cannot fight today's war with the tactics and equipment from the past war.

Today we have very effective antivirals which reduce the risk of severe illness to the highly vulnerable such as the elderly and immunocompromised patients.

The world has highly effective vaccinations. Shanghai should step up vaccinations of seniors and high risk citizens. In the past month, virtually no vaccinations have been conducted in Shanghai.

One PCR test costs more than a single vaccination shot. PCR tests do not reduce the risk for the individual, but a series of vaccination shots saves lives!

Not just vaccinating with two shots, but fully vaccinate with three shots and also boost with a forth. Better still, authorize the use of mRNA vaccinations as a pilot for the people of Shanghai, to use as their third booster, especially for seniors who already have their two shots; to use for unvaccinated seniors who have not yet had their shots and to use as a second booster for the immunocompromised.

Managing omicron is not about controlling the virus. Control and contain measures slow the transmission, but now is the time to bolster individual and population defenses with more vaccinations, expanded healthcare support facilities, use home recovery and care for the vaccinated and lower risk citizens.

We must make full use of all of the tools available and tackle the problem at its core. There are many active viral infectious diseases in our world. We attack them, we manage them, and we continue to live. This is what we must do here today!

With mandatory vaccinations, we can reduce the risk of severe illness and death from 20 times that of the flu to twice that of the common flu. This saves lives and enables the economy to open and function again.

The number of infected is not critical if 95% have no sickness and require no healthcare. This is not Ebola. We must protect lives and livelihood, reducing the risk of deaths and severe illness to manageable levels, similar to that of the common flu or other general viral infections, while enabling the fully vaccinated to go about life step-by-step, safely, towards normalcy.

In life, what happens is not as important as how you react to what happens. Sometimes it is necessary to take the first step, even when you do not see the entire staircase. Let’s take a step together.

From Shanghai, I hope you are well, safe, healthy and prosperous.

Alexander Glos