Shielding Latvia and Securing Canada: The Urgent Need to Combat Russian Disinformation

Amidst rising geopolitical tensions, Russia’s recent announcement slamming Latvia with allegations of discrimination against Russian-speaking citizens sets the stage for a complex and potentially destabilizing disinformation campaign. Canada must recognize the dangerous shadow of misinformation looming over its allies and itself and take decisive action to safeguard democratic values and sovereignty.

In this post, we have provided an in-depth study of the successful information warfare campaigns that Russia deployed against Georgia and Ukraine/Crimea. At the end of this article, I have provided a deep dive into what Latvia and Canada have in store for them and how DDI can provide both the defence and intelligence needed.

In a bold yet predictable move, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has launched allegations against Latvia, accusing it of infringing upon the rights of Russian-speaking citizens. This incendiary rhetoric, underpinned by threats of international legal consequences, marks the beginning of yet another orchestrated disinformation campaign. As this strategy unfolds, Canada cannot stand by idly—its forces deployed in Latvia and the integrity of international relations are at risk.

The playbook is well-worn. Rewind to Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, where Russia adeptly wielded misinformation to sway perceptions and justify nefarious actions under the guise of protection and legality. In Georgia, claims of genocide were broadcast relentlessly, clouding the reality of Russian aggression with narratives of humanitarian necessity. Fast-forward to Crimea, and the world witnessed an even more refined operation. Unmarked soldiers, dubbed "little green men," quietly ensured control while Russian media fanned the flames of ethnic solidarity and alleged oppression.

Such carefully crafted operations are not isolated incidents but rather a blueprint for Russia's comprehensive strategy to destabilize and dominate. When I speak with Western military, experienced political leaders, and diplomats, I am always shocked that they think the latest tactic from FSB or other Russian agencies is “new.” None of it is new. Russia is predictable; they have a playbook, and it rarely deviates. In Latvia, we can anticipate a similarly methodical rollout: an infusion of state and social media with tales of victimization and oppression, supported by digital warfare, to incapacitate response mechanisms and create confusion from Riga to Ottawa.

But why does this matter to Canada? With Canadian troops on Latvian soil as part of NATO's deterrence efforts, they are directly in the crosshairs of Russia's hybrid warfare strategies. This threat transcends the military domain—sophisticated cyber operations and disinformation campaigns aim to fracture alliances, undermine political will, and sow discord abroad and at home. Canadian infrastructure, economy, and social cohesion could become indirect casualties of this insidious warfare.

Canada must defend its military and political alliances in this evolving threat climate and arm itself with robust disinformation defenses. This is where Disinformation Defence IIntelligence (DDI) takes center stage.

Call to Action: It is time for Canada to take a firm stand. By investing in DDI, we can provide Canada with real-time intelligence, access, and advice on cybersecurity measures, leveraging Ukraine veterans' vast battle experience, expertise, and strategic communications needed to counteract the swelling tide of falsehoods. Canada must ensure its commitment to truth and transparency is ironclad by supporting its allies while protecting its shores from the influence of those who would see them destabilized.

Canada must be a bulwark against the menace of disinformation in preserving the sanctity of informed democracy and protecting the integrity of international relationships. The time to act is now, lest we find ourselves swept away by the rising tides of manipulation, unprepared and unprotected. The threat is real, the solution is within reach, and the responsibility is ours.

Full disclosure: I have worked with stakeholders in Canada for more than eight months on developing DDI to work within Canada’s robust ethical and moral frameworks, including sacrosanct policies and principles of operations. While I understand that Canada is not currently at war, surely, at this point, some sense of urgency will descend on Ottawa.

Road Map: Russian Information Warfare in the Georgian Conflict

Objective Setting:

• Frame intervention as a necessary peacekeeping mission.
• Shape global perceptions to minimize backlash and gain sympathy.
• Weaken Georgia by discrediting its government internationally.

Strategic Tactics:

Narrative Construction:

• Craft a storyline portraying Georgia as the aggressor.
• Emphasize the protection of civilians and alleged peacekeepers.

Media Dominance:

• Saturate media with Russia’s viewpoint through state-controlled outlets.
• Leverage RT and similar platforms to shape global perceptions.

Internet and Cyber Warfare:

• Launch cyberattacks to disable Georgian communication and cripple news dissemination.
• Target websites to control narrative flow.

Cultural and Historical Exploitation:

• Invoke historical ties to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
• Position intervention as protection for ethnic Russians.

Impact Analysis:

• Global Perception: Initial success in creating confusion and securing limited international sympathy.
• Policy Influence: Demonstrated the power of controlling narratives, impacting NATO and EU approaches.
• Long-lasting Effects: Complicated Georgia’s path to Western alliances.

Lessons for the Future:

• Digital Preparedness: Highlighted the need for robust strategies against misinformation and cyber threats.
• Narrative Power: Showcased the importance of controlling the storyline in shaping international perceptions.
• Strategic Communication: Emphasized the need for credible and diverse communication channels to counter disinformation effectively.

This road map illustrates the intricate tactics of Russian information warfare and underscores the critical need for nations to bolster their digital defenses and communication strategies in modern conflicts.

Road Map: Russian Information Warfare in the Crimea Invasion

Objective Setting:

• Swiftly secure control over Crimea with minimal casualties.
• Justify actions under the guise of protecting Russian-speaking populations.
• Manage international perceptions to present a fait accompli.

Strategic Tactics:

Hybrid Warfare:

• Deploy unmarked "little green men" to maintain plausible deniability.
• Use local proxies to create an appearance of local uprising and unrest.

Information Warfare:

• Spread narratives through state-controlled media justifying actions as a protective measure.
• Emphasize threats from the new Ukrainian government to Russian speakers.

Cyber and Digital Manipulation:

• Conduct cyber operations to disrupt Ukrainian communication systems.
• Manipulate social media to amplify Russian narratives and rally local sentiment.

Rapid and Decisive Action:

• Execute quick operations to ensure control before Ukraine or international actors could respond.
• Present the takeover as a legal and necessary measure to protect citizens.

Impact Analysis:

• Effective Territorial Control: Achieved swift control over Crimea, minimizing Western response options.
• Minimal Casualties: Conducted operations with little resistance, reducing humanitarian outcry.
• International Perception: Initially confused and divided, many states struggled to respond effectively, allowing Russia to consolidate its position.

Lessons for the Future:

• Integration of Military and Non-Military Tools: Demonstrated the power of combining conventional forces with digital and information strategies.
• Strategic Communication: Underlined the importance of quick, coordinated messaging to control narratives internationally.
• Exploiting Political Confusion: Leveraged chaotic political situations to achieve strategic objectives swiftly and effectively.

This road map highlights how Russia combined swift military actions with sophisticated information warfare, showcasing the complexities of modern-day geopolitical strategies and the urgent need for robust defense mechanisms against such hybrid threats.

Road Map: PREDICTED Russian Information Warfare in Latvia and DDI Counteractions

Objective Setting:

• Portray Latvia as discriminatory towards Russian-speaking citizens.
• Justify potential aggressive actions as necessary interventions.
• Undermine NATO presence and strain Canada-Latvia relations.

Strategic Tactics and DDI Counteractions:

Narrative Manipulation:

• Russian Tactic: Disseminate fabricated stories of oppression against Russian speakers in Latvia through state media and online platforms.
• DDI Counteraction: Deploy real-time fact-checking and counter-narrative campaigns across social and traditional media at the direction of Canada. Leverage partnerships with local and international news agencies to ensure accurate reporting and transparency.

Cyber Warfare:

• Russian Tactic: Conduct cyberattacks on Latvian government websites and communication infrastructure to disrupt official narratives and create chaos.
• DDI Counteraction: Advise and provide access to support the implementation of robust cybersecurity defenses and rapid incident response teams to protect critical infrastructure, swiftly restoring any disrupted communication channels. Our team knows how fast and dynamic we have to be when defending against Russian aggression.

Social Media Manipulation:

• Russian Tactic: Utilize bots and troll farms to amplify divisive content and provoke civil unrest, presenting false consensus and stoking ethnic tensions.
• DDI Counteraction: Use advanced AI algorithms to detect and shut down coordinated disinformation campaigns. Educate the public to recognize and report suspicious online activities.

Diplomatic Pressure:

• Russian Tactic: Threaten international action via the UN, framing Latvia as a violator of human rights to gather sympathy and support.
• DDI Counteraction: Provide intelligence and evidence to international bodies, showcasing Latvia’s adherence to international norms. Strengthen diplomatic ties and facilitate open dialogues emphasizing Latvia's human rights commitment.

Exploiting Local Discontent:

• Russian Tactic: Encourage local protests and support pro-Russian groups to create apparent civil dissatisfaction and division.
• DDI Counteraction: Foster community engagement programs that promote unity and economic development, reducing vulnerabilities to outside manipulation.

Empower DDI to Intervene:

Canada and Latvia can neutralize these anticipated Russian tactics by empowering DDI to develop and deploy. The strategic implementation of defense and intelligence measures ensures Latvia's sovereignty is protected, preserving the integrity of NATO efforts and safeguarding the interests of allied nations. Investing in DDI is a preventive measure and a necessary fortification in the battle against misinformation and hybrid warfare. With this proactive stance, Latvia can avoid falling prey to the sophisticated strategies that have previously unfolded in Georgia and Crimea.

The time to act is now.