Should I wait for Generative AI to improve? 🤔
The article "The Lazy Tyranny of the Wait Calculation" by Ethan Mollick discusses the concept of waiting for technological advancements before undertaking certain tasks.
It uses the hypothetical example of a journey to Barnard's Star, showing how waiting for future technology like a fusion-powered spaceship could drastically reduce travel time compared to using current technology. This concept, known as the 'Wait Calculation,' is applied to AI development, where rapid advancements might make it more efficient to delay projects until more advanced AI becomes available.
Mollick reflects on his own experiences in educational game development, where recent AI innovations could have significantly altered or expedited his projects. He advises considering the pace of AI progress in planning projects but warns against over-relying on future advancements at the expense of present action and learning.
The article by Mollick and recent Boston Consulting Group (BCG) survey findings intersect interestingly. Mollick's warning ties in with the BCG's survey results, which indicate that while 90% of organizations are either waiting for generative AI to move beyond the hype or are only experimenting in small ways, there are distinct benefits to being proactive.
The survey reveals that the 'winners' in AI adoption are those investing in productivity and topline growth, upskilling, and implementing responsible AI principles. This suggests that, contrary to the 'wait calculation', there is significant value in actively engaging with current AI technologies and not just waiting for future developments.