THE SIGHTLESS BIRD

THE SIGHTLESS BIRD

HUMPY RUSSIA AND PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER AGAIN ONCE AGAIN

 The Russo-Japanese War (Japanese: 日露戦争, romanized: Nichiro sensō, lit. 'Japanese-Russian War'; Russian: Ру́сско-япóнская войнá, romanized: Rússko-yapónskaya voyná) was fought between the Empire of Japan and the Russian Empire during 1904 and 1905 over rival imperial ambitions in Manchuria and the Korean Empire. The major theatres of military operations were located in Liaodong Peninsula and Mukden in Southern Manchuria, and the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan ( Today this is Syria) Russia sought a warm-water port on the Pacific Ocean both for its navy and for maritime trade. Vladivostok remained ice-free and operational only during the summer; Port Arthur, a naval base in Liaodong Province leased to Russia by the Qing dynasty of China from 1897, was operational year round. Russia had pursued an expansionist policy east of the Urals, in Siberia and the Far East, since the reign of Ivan the Terrible in the 16th century. Since the end of the First Sino-Japanese War in 1895, Japan had feared Russian encroachment would interfere with its plans to establish a sphere of influence in Korea and Manchuria.

 Seeing Russia as a rival, Japan offered to recognize Russian dominance in Manchuria in exchange for recognition of the Korean Empire as being within the Japanese sphere of influence. Russia refused and demanded the establishment of a neutral buffer zone between Russia and Japan in Korea, north of the 39th parallel. The Imperial Japanese Government perceived this as obstructing their plans for expansion into mainland Asia and chose to go to war. After negotiations broke down in 1904, the Imperial Japanese Navy opened hostilities in a surpriseattack on the Russian Eastern Fleet at Port Arthur,

.Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on; he chose to remain engaged in the war and await the outcomes of key naval battles. As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a "humiliating peace". Russia ignored Japan's willingness early on to agree to an armistice and rejected the idea of bringing the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. (this Putin’s denial today) The war was eventually concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth (5 September [O.S. 23 August] 1905), mediated by US President Theodore Roosevelt (This is Biden).

 The complete victory of the Japanese military surprised international observers  (this is us and the Ukraine today) and transformed the balance of power in both East Asia and Europe, resulting in Japan's emergence as a great power and a decline in the Russian Empire's prestige and influence in Europe.( this is the Sightless Bird forecast)  Russia's incurrence of substantial casualties and losses for a cause that resulted in humiliating defeat contributed to a growing domestic unrest (we are at a critica phase and must assist the  Putin transition unlike Mikhail Gorbachev departure.

 The Bloody Sunday" uprising, or the 1905 revolution occurred while the Russian army was busy fighting the Japanese, in the Russo-Japanese war.

 This followed a rather embarrassing performance as today.

 While the Russian army was weak and could not support the rulers the Bolsheviks decided this was the time to get some reforms ( the Russia military has once again suffered a defeat to a small foe)

 THIS IS WHERE WE ARE

 ADVANTAGE CHINA

 In the ‘Great Game’ of Central Asia, China’s Leader Seeks the Advantage

 The Panda dances and the Bear is forced into hibernation.  

Xi Jinping’s visit to Central Asia shed a light on his country’s efforts to increase its sway in the vast, resource-rich region once considered Russia’s dominate.

In a premature move China has attacked the Soviet under belly in diplomacy. This will crush the historical rival India into insolation. It will confiscate core oil, gas and mineral that made the old Soviet state wealthy.

 Taiwan will remain a nuisance but not worth the cost of invasion. Invasion has bankrupted the Russia . FEAR IS A POWERFUL TOOL TO INFLUENCE TAIWAN.

 China’s Xi visits Central Asia ahead of expected meeting with Putin

 Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke in Hong Kong on his planned meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Uzbekistan. He understands the desire to repossess losses. He has a shoulder for Putin to cry on but not a gun.

Meanwhile it look’s like Putin is going to fall (go to jail). President Xi Jinping left China for the first time in almost three years, marking his reemergence on the international stage with a tour of Central Asia. ( He has started to court his friend’s partners before Putin is incarcerated).  Xi will provide the technology and  replace all Russia services.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand. (It is very awkward when someone sit watching you taking his partners and remembers that they bickered  among themselves when with you but appear sequined  with XI).

Russia's credit rating has been slashed to junk, same as Angola and Nicaragua. Angola’s Russian first family members have been jailed or exiled.

 EUROPE MUST SORT OUT RUSSIA OR SELECTIVELY ACCEPT PARTS.WITHOUT MOTHER RUSSIA NUMMEROUS WARS WILL EXPLODE.

Several disputed states with varying degrees of recognition exist within the territory of the former Soviet Union: Transnistria in eastern Moldova, Abkhaziaand South Ossetia in northern Georgia and Artsakh in southwestern Azerbaijan. Since 2014, the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic in far eastern Ukraine have claimed independence.

 WHAT IS AN UNRECOGNIZED STATE?

 All of these unrecognized states except Artsakh depend on Russian armed support and financial aid. Artsakh is integrated to Armenia at a de-facto level, which also maintains close cooperation with Russia. Prior to its annexation to Russia in March 2014, which is not recognized by most countries, Crimea briefly declared itself an independent state.

Kazakhstan           BBB

Kyrgyzstan.               B3

Tajikistan                  B-

Turkmenistan            B+

Uzbekistan at         BB-

 S&P placed Russia in a category known as selective default, which indicates it failed to pay bondholders on a specific type of debt—in this case foreign currency debt—but may continue to meet obligations on other borrowings. A bankrupt country will find it difficult to recruit partners or to rebuild a military or economy.

 The Russian military’s difficulties in Ukraine have also served to highlight the limitations of Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian rule. The invasion force assembled in early 2022 was woefully inadequate for the task at hand, but Putin’s personal obsession with the destruction of Ukraine meant that nobody dared to warn him of the dangers. Instead, Putin’s blind faith in the invincibility of the Russian army and his unhinged insistence on Ukraine’s illegitimacy were allowed to prevail over more sober military judgments. After all, how can a superpower lose to a country that does not exist, an unrecognized state. Putin is too young to remember Russia’s financing unrecognized North Vietnam.

 Russia Warns of Red Line if the U.S. Provides Long-range Missiles to Ukraine

Published Sept. 15 at 6:53 pm

The White House press service reports that the United States intends to supply Kyiv with weapons for combat operations on the southern and eastern fronts in the future, including advanced missile systems

Weapons: The Soviet MiG-17 in Vietnam

By William F. Floyd, Jr.

The American pilots did not see the North Vietnamese Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-17 fighter jets approaching their strike aircraft as they zeroed in on Than Hoa Bridge on April 3, 1965. Visibility was good for the American aircraft at their high altitude but became hazy below 5,000 feet. The MiG-17s, flying at 1,000 feet, closed in on the pair of Vought F-8E Crusader fighter-bombers just as they pulled up after bombing the bridge. As the MiGs closed on the Crusaders, Lieutenant Pham Ngoc Lan began his attack, scoring a number of hits with his 23mm cannon.

One of the F8s appeared to explode as it veered downward. Phan’s wingman opened fire on the second F-8. While the North Vietnamese pilots claimed two victories that day, neither Crusader had actually been shot down. But the engagement marked North Vietnam’s first attempt with its MiG-17s to intercept U.S. strike aircraft flying over the communist country.

 The MiG-17 was a modernization of the earlier MiG-15 model featuring improved aerodynamic characteristics. This was achieved without giving it a single additional pound of thrust. On the basis of the MiG-17, the first Soviet interceptor, the MiG-17PFU, was built; its armament consisted of four air-to-air guided missiles. Although by the mid-1960s Soviet Air Forces considered the MiG-17 to be obsolete, it performed almost perfectly for North Vietnam during the Second Indochina War.

 The first MiG-17s furnished by the Soviet Union to North Vietnam were strictly day fighters, but the communist Vietnamese People’s Air Force (VPAF) would later receive versions that had some capacity for all-weather and night operations.

 The VPAF also received MiG-19 and MiG-21 fighter-bombers, but Hanoi carefully guarded these valuable, advanced aircraft; for that reason, MiG-17 pilots bore the burden engaging the majority of American fighter-bomber aircraft conducting bombing missions over North Vietnam.

 The single-seat MiG-17 was heavily armed and highly maneuverable. It boasted three 23mm Nudelman-Rikhter cannon and had provisions for two under-wing packs of eight 55mm air-to-air rockets or 1,100 lbs. in gravity bombs.

TODAY

In response, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Sept. 15 that “if the United States decides to supply Ukraine with longer-range missiles, they will cross the red line and become a direct party to the conflict.”

Zakharova also stressed that Russia reserves the right to “respond adequately” in the event of a U.S. decision to supply Ukraine with longer-range missiles.

Thus far, the U.S. has not admitted to providing Ukraine with missiles exceeding a range of about 80 kilometers. However, considering the frequency and accuracy with which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have struck Russian targets well beyond that range, many analysts believe Ukraine may have already received such missiles – perhaps even from other members of the NATO alliance.

 In addition, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson, said that the U.S. might announce the provision of another military assistance package to Ukraine shortly.

He also added that the U.S. constantly communicates with the Ukrainian authorities regarding the specific needs of their armed forces.

“Many of the systems that we have been providing over the past few weeks and several months have proven to be instrumental and effective for the ability of Ukrainians to go on the attack and be quite effective,” Kirby explained.

 THE FINAL BLOW

 Rapid loss of territory in Ukraine reveals a spent Russian military.

 Troop and logistics issues plus equipment losses could limit Vladimir Putin to defending the territory he already holds.

 Moscow’s rapid loss of more than 2,300 square miles of territory in northeastern Ukraine has raised the prospect that the Russian military is spent as an offensive force for the foreseeable future, which could limit Russian President Vladimir Putin to defending the Ukrainian territory he already holds while leaving him open to additional defeats, according to military analysts.

After an humiliating defeat,  Russia looking at a least 50 years of as Russia interreflection .

 The Bolsheviks have returned