Signal: America First, imaginary bears, and the invasion of Fiji

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Heightened frictions this week between the United States and China, Germany and Turkey, Venezuelans and their government, and Ian Bremmer and Donald Trump….

[Join us to discuss Signal and the week’s news live on Facebook at 10 am ET today (July 21). See you at facebook.com/eurasiagroup. If you miss it, you’ll be able to watch the recap video there afterward. Signal is written by Willis Sparks with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don’t like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter].

The Word This Week

But let’s start with this… Maybe you think Donald Trump is a bombastic, delusional man-child who would sell the Russians California if he could get a good price. Or maybe you think he’s the battering ram the world needs to force open the citadel of power, oust the corrupt cosmopolitan elite, and restore order in the name of the people. No matter which side of this spectrum you live on, one thing is clear: six months into the Trump presidency, the White House has become the world’s no. 1 source of geopolitical uncertainty.

Why so much confusion over this man and his plans? In part, it’s because he had never served in government before arriving at the pinnacle of power. There’s no track record to read or ideology to interpret. In part, it’s because it’s sometimes unclear who is making foreign policy decisions. In part, it’s because there is so much scandal swirling around this White House, with members of Trump’s family under the media (and probably investigative) microscope, that no one can be sure how much time the president will spend on foreign policy.

But after half a year of Trump it’s clear that the greatest source of uncertainty is the fact that he’s the first US president since the 1930s who doesn’t accept the premise that global leadership is in the US national interest. With World War II and the Cold War well behind us, why should the US guarantee the security of wealthy countries like Germany and Japan, allowing them to spend on other priorities while US infrastructure rusts and the US economy remains stuck in low gear? Why is it Washington’s job to stop other countries from fighting or to offer big concessions in international agreements so others can do less?

Some of Trump’s “America First” arguments are powerful. Others are pretty thin. But love him or hate him, trust him or not, his rejection of America’s responsibility to lead marks a fundamental philosophical change in the use of US power. The only nation capable of projecting political, military, economic, and cultural influence in every region of the world has altered course. The world is watching and wondering what’s next.

Next up… This week, we saw two more examples of one of 2017’s other top stories: the Chinese leadership’s drive to maximize control of information and political power. Twenty years after Hong Kong’s handover from the UK, Beijing appears more concerned than ever about the territory’s future. A Hong Kong court ruled a few days ago that four pro-democracy members of the legislature were not sincere in taking their oaths of office and were therefore disqualified from service. Their sincerity was undermined, according to the court, by “slow reading,” “intentional intonation,” “repeated insertion of extra words,” and the “use of props and theatrical conduct.” (Sorry I missed this show.) The lawmakers will appeal, but under the circumstances, it’s hard to like their chances of reinstatement.

This was a consequential ruling, because it leaves the pro-democracy faction of the Legislative Council without the numbers it needs to block legislation it doesn’t like, stripping the group of some of the gains it earned with a strong showing in local elections last fall. And that might encourage the pro-Beijing faction to push for legislation that would give the Chinese government greater control of Hong Kong’s politics. That push might even include new life for the hyper-controversial Article 23, an “anti-subversion” law that would severely compromise free speech in Hong Kong.

Finally… There were other signs of the Chinese leadership’s sensitivity on display this week. Five years ago, I wrote a piece for Foreign Policy called “Why China’s Leaders Fear the Teletubbies,” which detailed the findings of a report from China Digital Times on words and phrases that can get you bumped off China’s internet. The list ranged from predictable entries like “Tiananmen,” “Tibet,” and “Taiwan” to more exotic choices like “baby soup,” “best actor” and “Teletubby,” a nickname for former premier Wen Jiabao that he apparently didn’t care for. This week, we learned that President Xi Jinping is not partial to an Internet meme that compares his profile to that of Winnie the Pooh. Mention my third favorite childhood bear (after Yogi and Boo Boo) and you won’t last long on WeChat or Sina Weibo.

What we’re watching:

The Iran nuclear deal. Trump sometimes ignores his most experienced advisors to go with his gut. Apparently, the president came close this week to tearing up the Iran nuclear deal. It’s recertified for now, but this is one to watch going forward.

Turkey’s slide towards autocracy. The government of Turkey announced plans this week to remove the theory of evolution from school textbooks. Evolution is “above the students’ level and not directly relevant,” said the country’s education minister. How long before Turkey’s government says the same about democracy?

Poland’s slide towards autocracy. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is preparing another step to cripple rule of law in that country by stripping the country’s highest courts of their independence. The government wants parliament, not judges, to appoint members to the National Council of the Judiciary, the body which appoints members of the Supreme Court. It also wants to force all current members of the Supreme Court to resign, except those given permission to stay by the Justice Ministry. Despite angry public protests and intense resistance from the EU and Poland’s opposition, the government is likely to win this fight.

Growing US-Chinese trade tensions. This week’s US-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue failed to address any of the major issues plaguing the two nations’ economic relationship. This excerpt from an editorial in the July 20 edition of China’s Global Times captures one element of the Chinese side of the story: “The U.S. is reluctant to sell high tech products that China actually needs. Instead the U.S. tries to promote the sale of genetically modified agricultural products and mediocre automobiles.”

What we’re ignoring:

“Little Russia”. On Tuesday, Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine declared the formation of a new state called Malorossiya (Little Russia), which, they say, includes the entire territory of Ukraine. On Wednesday, I declared full sovereignty over Fiji. Signal subscribers get a free shrimp cocktail and two adult beverages with every visit.

Korean peace talks? South Korea offered to open new talks with North Korea. It will take more than a few economic concessions or a charm offensive to persuade Kim Jong-un that he and his country can breathe easy in a world without North Korean nukes.

Your Weekly Bremmer

Hard Numbers

90%: Ninety percent of Kenyans have seen or heard false news related to the country’s upcoming presidential election next month, according to a recent study.

10: The Turkish government appears to have publicly divulged the location of ten U.S. military bases and outposts in northern Syria. With (NATO) friends like these…

83%: Mexico’s ruling PRI party is viewed as corrupt by eighty-three percent of the population, making it the lowest ranked party in Mexico by a large margin. The PRI has failed to implement long-promised anti-corruption measures.

12.9 million: The government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has spent over 12.9 million dollars on a public relations campaign to discredit the Hungarian-born financier George Soros. Orban once received a Soros-sponsored scholarship to study at Oxford. #Ingratitude

123: The Venezuelan government has detained at least one-hundred and twenty three members of the country’s armed forces since April. Any embattled leader’s worst nightmare: Doubts that the army will follow his orders.

4 million: Diezani Alison-Madueke, the former petroleum minister of Nigeria and one-time president of OPEC, received four million dollars worth of furniture in exchange for lucrative oil contracts, according to a recent corruption probe. Nice work if you can get it.

Words of Wisdom

“He’s a great guy. Smart. Strong. Loves holding my hand.”

– US President Donald Trump describes his relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Signal is written by Willis Sparks with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don’t like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter.

If you like what you see, be sure to sign up to receive it in your inbox first thing every Friday morning: eurasiagroup.net/signal.