Signal: Impetuous Trump, global generation gaps, and the world’s scariest squirrel

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-Ian

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Pakistan’s prime minister forced out, more US sanctions on Russia, metal detectors in Jerusalem, and Trump picks new fights….

The Word This Week

 Let’s start with this… President Trump surprised us this week with a Twitter announcement that transgender Americans will no longer be allowed to serve in the military. Despite an assurance that the decision came only after “consultation with my Generals and military experts,” press leaks from the Pentagon suggested they were as surprised as the media. A day later, the Defense Department signaled there will be no immediate change in policy.

Who urged the president to do this? House Republicans looking for a “culture war” win and willing to threaten funding for his border wall to get it? White House strategist Steve Bannon? Maybe the president, frustrated by his inability to get beyond the Russia/Robert Mueller story and the never-ending struggle to do something, anything, on health care reform, just felt like taking a bold step that he knew would please the folks who cheer at his rallies. Or maybe he wanted to remind official Washington that he alone is commander-in-chief. 

I raise this to remind everyone of a story we flagged last week. The president has reluctantly agreed to recertify Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, but he made clear this week that he’s not happy about it. “We’ve been extremely nice to them in saying they were compliant,” said Trump. “Personally, I have great respect for my people, but if it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago… We’ll talk about the subject in 90 days but I would be surprised if they were in compliance.”

The president wants us to know that he won’t always be guided by those in uniform or on his foreign policy leadership team. They’ll tell him that tearing up the Iran nuclear deal will push international inspectors out of Iran. That Britain, France, and Germany won’t support this move. That Russia and China have no reason to honor new sanctions just because the White House wants them to. And Trump might tear up the deal anyway.

The Defense Intelligence Agency warned this week that North Korea will have a nuclear-capable, intercontinental ballistic missile within one year. Will the White House soon be managing two nuclear threats at once?

Next up… Our life experience shapes what we want, what we hope for, what we fear, and what we think. Our generation has different expectations and assumptions about the world than our parents, and a new era gives our children perspectives that are distinctly different from ours. In a political context, it matters that there’s usually a generational divide between leaders and many of those they govern. I was about 7 years old before I first became (dimly) aware of national and global events. With that in mind, consider how the following numbers will shape politics in important places.

Russians under 24 won’t remember Russia before Putin, and those under 34 have no memory of the Soviet Union. South Africans younger than 30 won’t have clear memories of apartheid. They know the African National Congress as the party of power, not the party of liberation. Chinese under 35 can’t recall a time when their country was not the world’s rising economic power. Iranians under 45 have no memory of life before the revolution. French, Italians, and Germans younger than 22 have never paid for a meal with francs, lira or Deutsche Marks. Brazilians younger than 39 and Nigerians under 25 have no experience of military rule. Americans under 23 won’t remember the world before 9/11. Those under 34 didn’t experience the Cold War. Those under 53 won’t remember racial segregation. Something to think about when trying to predict what citizens will want from their governments.

Let me add… Next week, US Vice President Mike Pence will travel to Estonia, Georgia, and Montenegro. These three countries live in very different neighborhoods, but they have a common problem. In 2007, the government of Estonia, a former Soviet Republic that has joined the EU and NATO, blamed Russia for a cyberattack that briefly shut down the internet nationwide. Estonia continues to face cross-border harassment of various kinds. In 2008, Russia fought a brief war with Georgia, another former Soviet Republic, over a breakaway province, and Georgia accused Russia earlier this month of quietly moving the border between the two countries several hundred meters further into Georgian territory. Montenegro, once part of Communist Yugoslavia, has accused Russian intelligence services of attempting to stop its NATO accession earlier this year by backing a failed coup and trying to murder the country’s prime minister. Russia denies all these accusations. In short, Estonia, Georgia, and Montenegro are small countries living in Russia’s cold shadow, and their leaders will likely have some friendly but pointed questions for Mr. Pence.

Finally… The New York City Health Department warned this week that an “unusually aggressive” squirrel had attacked five people in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park. I don’t blame you for overlooking this story, but this is my neighborhood. This wild-eyed beast was spotted within one mile of my apartment. Just how crazy and dangerous is this squirrel? I first learned about him from the front page of the BBC website. Yes, this New York squirrel is so crazy and dangerous that he’s headline news… in the United Kingdom. I admit it. I’m scared.

Caption Contest: Send us a clever caption for the picture below and we may just give you a shout out on Twitter.

What we’re watching:

 A political crisis in Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was forced to resign today following a unanimous Supreme Court ruling in response to a corruption investigation. Like the 17 Pakistani prime ministers who came before him, he was not able to finish the term to which he was elected. Chalk up one more for “forced transparency,” because revelations from the Panama Papers played a role in this ruling.

Benjamin Netanyahu. He has been Israel’s prime minister for so long that it’s easy for outsiders to forget he’s facing real political trouble. Investigations into a $2 billion contract to buy submarines from a German firm have led to the arrest of Netanyahu’s lawyer (and cousin), and there are other investigations, as well. These stories will likely take months to play out, but if he’s eventually indicted, his coalition partners will probably push him out and opt for early elections next year. It’s hard to know how likely that is, but these are serious charges, and we’ll be watching closely.

Congressional Republicans’ reactions. President Trump has been flirting with whether to fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Will Trump try to end Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of possible collusion between his campaign and the Russian government by ordering that Mueller be fired? A few GOP lawmakers have fired off warning shots, but if they don’t continue to defend Sessions, a former congressional colleague, Trump may decide it will be easy to move against Mueller, transforming a political storm into a tsunami.

What we’re ignoring:

Martin Schulz. A bid to revive his chances of unseating Angela Merkel as Germany’s Chancellor by launching a new attack on her open-door policy toward refugees isn’t going to work. It’s late in the day to sound an alarm on that story, and voters angry over refugees aren’t likely to turn to the center-left SPD. Meanwhile, Merkel decided to take a holiday, because that’s what you do when you have a 64% approval rating after 12 years in power. 

Duda’s veto. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda vetoed part of a proposal from the ruling Law and Justice Party and its leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski this week that would leave the country’s judges dependent on political officials for their jobs. The party politics here are complicated, but we’re skeptical that this marks the victory that rule-of-law activists were hoping for. We think Duda and Kaczynski will compromise on a new version that continues the erosion of liberal democracy in Poland.

The all-clear. I’m not impressed with assurances from the New York City Health Department that the psycho squirrel is “probably dead.” Show me a body or get back to work.

Your Weekly Bremmer

Watch Ian evaluate the development of EG’s top risk for 2017: “Independent America”.

Hard Numbers

30: Nearly thirty Turks were detained for wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the word “hero” in solidarity with a former soldier who was arrested while donning a similar shirt. #Democracyin2017

85%: Italy has taken in eighty-five percent of the migrants arriving to Europe by sea this year.

$150 billion: China laid out an ambitious artificial intelligence development plan this week that aims to build a domestic industry worth one-hundred and fifty billion dollars by 2030.

48%: Forty-eight percent of Israelis think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is corrupt, according to a recent poll, but he still polls higher than anyone else as the person best suited for the job. Cognitive dissonance or lousy options?

10%: French President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating dropped from sixty-four to fifty-four percent between June and July. That’s the biggest such drop for a new French president since 1995.

1: Kenya’s presidential candidates Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta were scheduled for a televised debate this week. Odinga, the challenger, showed. Kenyatta, the incumbent, did not. #InterestingStrategy

Words of Wisdom

“I am happy, I jump about. If I can’t do it with my legs, I’ll do it with my heart.”

– Zimbabwe’s 93-year-old President Robert Mugabe acknowledges that he may be getting a little old — though he still refuses to name a successor.

Signal is written by Willis Sparks with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don’t like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter.

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