So Brexit has happened... but what now?

With all the parliamentary gridlock and chaos of the last few years, the casual observer could be forgiven for failing to notice that Britain went ahead and passed the point of no return on 31st January 2020. It doesn’t matter whether you voted to Remain or to Leave, the question as to whether we exit the EU is no longer relevant as we have left. What is more important now is how we choose to go forward and whether, as a country, we attempt to come together and heal, or whether we’d rather just keep slugging it out.

The Transition Period

The scientific community has understandably been very concerned about the direction of travel, specifically with regard to how closely aligned to our European friends and neighbours we will ultimately be. For the next eleven months, we will effectively stand still while Brussels and London attempt to thrash out a trade deal which will determine whether tariffs will be imposed on the goods that we export.

This period, the calm before change comes, is the perfect opportunity to take stock, reflect, and crucially get things in order so that you are prepared for any eventuality.

The transition period means that while we will, to all intents and purposes, remain in the EU customs territory for the remainder of 2020, we have officially left the political institutions, which is why we were treated to the sight of Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party waving their union flags as they bade their European counterparts a fond farewell.

Johnson’s Majority Government

December’s election was a decisive turning point. Whereas until that point, close alignment in the form of continued membership of the single market and customs union was a realistic possibility, the Conservative victory means that divergence and a cleaner break is far more likely.

This means in practical terms that freedom of movement is likely to end, so the heady days of meandering from Berlin to Bratislava and back again look to be ending. Divergence will inevitably lead to tighter restrictions on both EU citizens wishing to come to the UK and British Nationals wishing to travel to mainland Europe.

If you want to experience Europe sans restrictions, or take that grand European tour, this is the year to do it.

Key dates to watch

If you haven’t already had your fill of the Great Brexit saga, then there are several key dates coming up in 2020 to watch out for.

30th June 2020 is the next big one. It is on this day that the UK must give notice to the EU if it wishes to extend the transition period for potentially up to 2 years. The EU has already signalled that it feels an extension will be required but PM Johnson has said “Non” to that, repeating his “Do or Die” Pledge - namely that we will be fully out, as opposed to one foot in and one foot out by the end of this year.

31st December 2020. If no extension to the transition is requested by June, then 31st December 2020 becomes the new hard deadline; the date by which a trade deal (if Britain is to leave with one) is to be ratified by all EU member states.

1st January 2021. Depending on your perspective, the next New Year will either start with a celebratory bang or a wail of horror, for we will either have left with a cracking trade deal, or we will be out on WTO terms, which is another way of saying that Brexit will become as hard as it gets.

What happens then…

Right now, that is anyone’s guess and it really is going to boil down to who is better at playing poker, Britain or the EU. While Theresa May was never going to play hardball, Johnson is a totally different proposition and the signs are certainly pointing to him walking away from the negotiations if the EU tries to impose red lines that he doesn’t like.

• How badly does the EU want a trade deal?
• Will they concede more to avoid uncertainty?
• What shape will the new Irish government take and will this influence the trade negotiations?

With so many variables at play, all anyone can do is sit back and watch while the melodrama plays out its final acts.