The Song Remains the Same: No strong Republican candidate emerges as House's next Speaker
Michael Stanley-Jones
Writer on Culture, Environment, Politics and Sustainability
When Representative Steve Scalise announced to his fellow Republicans that he was withdrawing his nomination to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives last Thursday, some of his supporters reportedly wept.
In his statement, Mr. Scalise said bitterly
“There’s some folks that really need to look in the mirror over the next couple of days and decide: Are we going to get back on track, or are they going to try to pursue their own agenda? You can’t do both.”
Scalise’s candidacy was tanked by his opponent, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who garnered 99 votes to Scalise’s 113 in the secret ballot among Republican Representatives held just the day before.
Knowing Scalise did not command the 217 votes needed to push him over the top to election to the Speakership, Jordan demanded Scalise pledge to back his own candidacy after the first ballot in the full House was concluded.
Isolated, Scalise demurred. The next day, he withdrew his candidacy and Jordan was duly nominated as the next Speaker-designate.
Now it was Scalise's supporters turn to block Jordan’s ascent. Even before Jordan’s nomination was confirmed, 55 Republicans in the House caucus signaled they would not vote for him as Speaker once the nomination was put before the full House.
The mood music within the Republican caucus could hardly be grimmer. Cue up Morgoth's song 'Isolation'.
What happens next? Here are five possible outcomes.
Recommended by LinkedIn
First, by delaying the vote before the full House, Jordan has bought himself time over the weekend to round up holdouts. He needs dozens to become a viable candidate, a very steep number to secure in under 36 hours. Lacking 217, if he comes somewhere close to that number, multiple rounds of voting just might bring him to within striking distance of the finishing line.
It took Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) 15 rounds of voting to be elected last January. Public humiliation of candidates has worked before; it might work again.
Second, a compromise consensus candidate might emerge and steel away the nomination from Jordan. Rep. Tom Cole (R-Oklahoma), Chairman of the House Rules Committee, is sometimes mentioned as a possible candidate. Compromise, however, is not part of many Republican members' vocabulary.
Third, Rep. Kevin McCarthy could be renominated for the Speakership. He had rallied 210 votes against vacating his Speakership and has said he would now do whatever the Republican Conference decides. Meaning, he would be willing to take back his job. Redemption has its fatal attraction.
Fourth, four moderate House members of the Democratic Party from the so-called Problem Solvers Caucus — Reps. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, Susie Lee of Nevada, Ed Case of Hawaii, and Jared Golden of Maine — have proposed to their Republican counterparts that, in exchange for certain concessions allowing legislation to move forward in the House, they would support the expansion of the power of Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina), the acting Speaker. By this means, they hope to move legislation in the House to support Israel and Ukraine, as well as pass appropriations legislation to avoid a partial Federal (National) Government shut down on November 17th.
The deal they envision is time limited to 15-day increments. It has the virtue of kicking the can of finding a permanent Speaker down the street. Many politicians could be attracted to deferring the final battle.
The final option is for selected Democratic members of the House to breakaway and vote for a Republican Speaker from the moderate wing of that Party. William Galston of the Brookings Institution’s Governance Programme has been advocating for this bi-partisan solution (Galston had served from 1993 to 1995 as Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Policy).
As yet, there are no takers on Galston’s suggestion. Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), chair of the Republican Governance Group (also known as the ‘Tuesday Group’), may be a place to start looking for one.
#ushouseofrepresentatives #speakerofthehouse #republicanparty #democraticparty #stevescalise #jimjordan #kevinmccarthy #davidjoyce