The Staircase of Electrification 1.0

The Staircase of Electrification 1.0

Overview

The Staircase of Electrification is designed to synthesize the key factors influencing the adoption of electrification across various sectors globally. It aims to illustrate the likelihood that any given use case will predominantly adopt electrification solutions by 2030s. This projection looks beyond current subsidies and assumes a future where technology and supply chains have matured, and economic viability is clear.

The rows on the Staircase of Electrification represent the ease with which each use case can transition to electrification, taking into account cost, feasibility, convenience, and other factors – using my expert views, supported by use of GEN AI and public data.

The Staircase is represented below (graph in Excel available; improved graphics welcomed):

Categories on Ease of Electrification, on Y-axis explained:

• 1 (Very Easy): These applications are highly likely to adopt electrification due to low barriers and high feasibility.
• 2 (Easy): Electrification in these applications is highly likely but may face some minor challenges.
• 3 (Moderate): These applications have moderate potential for electrification, with some significant challenges to overcome.
• 4 (Difficult): Electrification is possible but challenging due to technical or economic barriers.
• 5 (Very Difficult): These applications face substantial barriers to electrification, making it unlikely.
• 6 (Not Feasible): Electrification is currently not feasible for these applications due to insurmountable barriers.

Key Messages

• Promotion and Adoption: The lower rows of the Staircase indicate use cases where electrification is most promising and likely to be widely adopted.
• Challenges and Feasibility: The upper rows highlight the significant challenges and barriers that need to be addressed for electrification to become viable.
• Focus on Viability: Efforts and investments should prioritize applications on the lower rows where electrification can be implemented more readily and cost-effectively. Higher roads may be suitable – subject to economics – to alternatives like CCUS, Hydrogen, biomethane/biofuels. This may regionally differ, and policies may affect these choices.

Detailed Explanations for Each Category and included use cases for electrification

1 (Very Easy)

These applications are at the forefront of the electrification transition due to their straightforward feasibility:

• Urban Delivery and Taxis: Easily electrifiable with existing technology and infrastructure.
• 2 and 3-Wheelers: High feasibility due to low power requirements and existing electric models.
• Cars: Significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) make this sector highly suitable for electrification.
• Metro Trains and Buses: Electrification infrastructure for public transport is well-developed and expanding.
• Local Ferries: Short distances and predictable routes make electrification viable.

2 (Easy)

Electrification is highly likely but may encounter minor obstacles:

• Short Duration Grid Balancing: Battery technology is well-suited for short-term energy storage.
• Domestic Heating: Electric heat pumps and other technologies are increasingly popular and efficient. Grids may be an issue.
• Commercial Heating: Similar to domestic heating, with growing adoption of electric systems. Grids may be an issue.
• Non-Road Mobile Machinery: Some challenges remain, but electrification is progressing.

3 (Moderate)

Electrification potential exists but significant challenges must be addressed:

• Light Trucks: Emerging technologies show promise, but range and load capacity remain concerns.
• Long Duration Grid Balancing: Battery storage for long-term balancing is not available. Alternatives – such as use of power generation with stored hydrogen – are looked at (eg German government planning gas fired generation which is Hydrogen ready).
• High-Temperature Industrial Heat: Electric alternatives are emerging, but widespread adoption is still limited. The higher temperatures require very large power grids – eg some studies showed in the past, that some industries may need 2x to 3x grids increase to electrify.
• Regional Trucks: Electrification is possible but requires significant infrastructure and technological advancements.

4 (Difficult)

Electrification is possible but faces considerable barriers:

• Light Aviation: Battery technology for aviation is in its infancy, with weight and energy density being major hurdles.
• Remote and Rural Trains: Infrastructure and cost make electrification challenging.
• Coastal and River Vessels: Technical and economic challenges need to be addressed.
• Generators: Reliability and cost are significant concerns for electrification.
• Island Grids: Infrastructure and cost issues hinder widespread electrification.

5 (Very Difficult)

Substantial barriers make electrification unlikely in the near term:

• Shipping: Long distances and high power requirements make electrification challenging.
• Long Distance Trucks and Coaches: Range and refueling infrastructure are significant hurdles.
• Bulk Power Imports: Economic and technical barriers make large-scale electrification across large distances difficult – this space is to be watched to see how HVDC across Asia/MENA may change the landscape of bulk power imports – at present this may compete to large scale moving of Hydrogen or its derivatives (eg Ammonia).

6 (Not Feasible)

Electrification is not feasible due to insurmountable barriers:

• Jet Aviation: Current battery technology cannot meet the energy density requirements for jet fuel.
• Chemical Feedstock: Processes require specific chemical properties that electricity cannot easily provide.
• Steel: High temperatures and specific processes make electrification challenging; Use of biomethane, Hydrogen or CCUS driven processes may be seen as stronger alternative.
• Fertilizer: Production processes rely on chemical reactions not easily replaced by electricity. Use of biomethane, Hydrogen or CCUS driven processes may be seen as stronger alternative.
• Hydrocracking, Hydrogenation, Desulphurisation: These chemical processes require hydrogen or other specific inputs that electricity cannot substitute. Use of biomethane, Hydrogen or CCUS driven processes may be seen as stronger alternative.

Note on Changes and Updates

The transition to electrification is dynamic, with ongoing advancements and market developments influencing feasibility and adoption. The Staircase of Electrification reflects the current understanding and projections, with the potential for updates as technology and market conditions evolve.

Conclusion

The Staircase of Electrification highlights the varying ease of transitioning different applications to electrification. By focusing efforts and investments on the lower rows, stakeholders can achieve significant progress in reducing carbon emissions and advancing towards a sustainable future in equitable manner – alongside other energy transition vectors such as Hydrogen, use of CCUS, biomethane.

Author: Erik Rakhou. With a light touch, as this has been inspired by a missing piece to a Hydrogen ladder, a view to “how easy” it is to electrify – as this is one of the key reasons to invest or not to invest in certain Hydrogen applications according to Hydrogen ladder. Hydrogen ladder is a very useful and wide spread discussion tool - the above aims to add to the debate brought by Hydrogen ladder. Use, spreading and feedback most welcome – created under Creative commons license.