Accelerating the Path to Decarbonization

These are exciting times as the renewable energy future is a focus for so many organizations and governments around the world, as indicated by the discussions that will happen at the Energy Transition North America-Reuters Event this week. Emerging technologies are moving closer to reality, which makes ambitious energy goals more realistic and the path to 100 percent renewable energy is now within reach.

A place where the transition to renewables has progressed quite far already is California. The lessons learned along the way have been plentiful, but powerful nonetheless. The record-breaking heat wave that swept across the western part of the country and caused a series of blackouts in the Golden State, offered additional modelling opportunities to demonstrate the most effective mix of energy to accommodate any extreme weather situation during the transition, and to meet clean power mandates. 

The big challenge facing California and the rest of the world is how to integrate renewables into the grid while building security of supply and a sustainable power system with an affordable plan for everyone involved.

That’s why Wärtsilä launched its Path to 100% initiative. We believe a 100% renewable energy future is possible, practical and financially viable so we assembled a community of experts to produce solutions based on science and engineering. This fall, we published a white paper that describes the Optimal Path to decarbonization for California using new hourly load data provided by this summer’s extreme heatwave. 

In the whitepaper, Path to 100% Renewables for California, we modelled an approach for California to reach its climate and clean power goals faster, at a lower cost to ratepayers, all while maintaining system reliability. 

The “Optimal Path“ includes renewable carbon neutral fuels – hydrogen and synthetic methane. Curtailed renewable electricity is used in the process with water to produce Hydrogen, and carbon is captured from air to produce synthetic methane with hydrogen. These fuels are used in flexible power plants to provide a long term energy storage for seasonal and weather management needs. In the Optimal Path scenario, Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) commitments would actually be reached by 2040, five years ahead of schedule.

Generation costs in the “Optimal Path” scenarios are between 50 and 54 dollars per megawatt hour in 2045, while these costs would be almost 3 times higher if California opted to use only solar, wind a storage to build the power system. This cost difference is excessive and not beneficial for industries or households to pay. Additionally, carbon emissions are at net zero in 2045 in both scenarios. 

How can California get on the Optimal Path to a renewable energy future? One recommendation is to recognize carbon neutral fuels - as presented above - to be counted as renewable for RPS purposes. This would enable the utilities to start looking for ways to invest and use such fuels to the benefit of California.

To learn more about how the U.S. could accelerate its own path to a new energy future by redirecting stimulus funding to renewable energy, read Wärtsilä’s Aligning Stimulus with Energy Transformation Report. 

For more discussions on the decarbonization transition, join me for my keynote presentation in the Reuters Energy Transition North America virtual forum, Decarbonizing California: Charting a Path for Net-Zero, November 20 at 9:30 AM CST. Register here.