The supply of feed materials in China from the market demand of breeding animal products

Recently, China's animal nutrition association, feed research Institute, poultry industry association and other departments jointly organized a seminar, the purpose of which is to discuss the new development model of China's poultry industry under the background of soaring prices of feed materials and sustained low prices of poultry meat and eggs. Huang Qingsheng, head of forage department of China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, made a report in this seminar. This article is the outline of his report, so as to provide reference for you to understand the consumption demand of meat, egg and milk in China and feed supply.

I. Supply and demand of farmed animal products in China

1. Supply and import sources of farmed animal products in 2021

Self-sufficiency rate: 94% for pork; 96% for poultry; Poultry eggs reached 100%; 75% for beef; Lamb at 92%; Milk reached 63%; Aquatic products reached 100%; Other products reach 50%;

Net imported products totaled 30.58 million tons in 2021; Animal protein imports of 2.04 million tons; The self-sufficiency rate of farmed animal products reached 88%; The self-sufficiency rate of animal protein is 93%.

2. Forecast of consumption demand of farmed animal products

(1) China's total population will peak in 2025 at about 1,416 million.

(2) Per capita consumption of meat is expected to peak at 75.7 kg in 2035; Poultry eggs reached the peak value of 25.0 kg in 2023; Milk will reach the peak of 59.0 kg in 2051; Aquatic products reached a peak of 45.0 kg in 2031.

II.feed consumption and raw material supply

1. Total feed consumption in 2021 was 450 million tons

Pig feed consumption was 200.3 million tons; The consumption of egg poultry feed was 76.9 million tons; Meat poultry feed consumption was 103 million tons; Aquatic feed consumption was 24.8 million tons; The consumption of ruminant feed was 39.5 million tons; Other animal feed consumption was 5.5 million tons.

2. Estimation of feed raw material consumption in aquaculture industry in 2021

Feed consumption and proportion in 2021: corn 171 million tons, accounting for 38.0%; Wheat 37.6 million tons, accounting for 8.4%; 16 million tons of rice, accounting for 3.6%; Barley 10.3 million tons, accounting for 2.3%; Soybean meal 69 million tons, accounting for 15.3%; Rapeseed meal accounted for 10.4 million tons, or 2.3%.

3. Supply and feeding of grain and other raw materials in 2021

(1) The total supply was 909.52 million tons; Feeding consumption was 450 million tons.

(2) 47% of China's total grain supply (847 million tons, domestic and imported) is feed (including food processing by-products).

(3) Supply sources of feed raw materials in 2021: domestic sources (310 million tons, accounting for 69%) and imported sources (140 million tons, accounting for 31%).

(4) Feeding energy supply sources in 2021: domestic sources (721.5 trillion calories, accounting for 68%) and imported sources (335 tillion calories, accounting for 32%).

(5) Feeding protein supply sources in 2021: domestic sources (40.3 million tons, 51%) and imported sources (39.44 million tons, 49%).

(6) Feed consumption of China's aquaculture industry in the first half of 2022: total feed consumption is about 202.5 million tons, down 6.6 percent year-on-year. Pigs and poultry declined significantly, while aquatic products and ruminants grew faster.

(7) Feed raw material consumption in the first half of 2022: feed grains (grains and soybean meal) accounted for 68.1% of feed, down 3.6% year-on-year. The consumption of corn, sorghum, miscellaneous meal, DDGS and fish meal increased, the consumption of wheat, rice and barley decreased significantly, and the consumption of soybean meal decreased significantly.

III. feed raw material supply assurance strategy

1. Major existing problems

(1) Lack of protein raw materials: protein feed raw materials (soybean meal) rely heavily on imports; Domestic production at full capacity is also difficult to meet demand; The supply scale and stability of other protein resources need to be improved.

(2) Energy structural imbalance: the structure of energy feed raw materials (grains) is tight, the inventory of rations is abundant, the consumption is declining year by year, and the demand for feeding grains is rigidly increasing.

2. Analysis of feeding potential of domestic food resources

(1) Corn: the domestic production demand is tight, processing demand should be controlled, and feeding should be guaranteed first, and the proportion of corn in feed should be controlled below 44%.

(2) Wheat and rice: the domestic production and stock are sufficient, with feeding potential, important ration varieties, a small amount of feeding, the proportion of feed should be controlled below 1%. The amount of rice stored over time is large and can be fed directionally, accounting for more than 5% in the feed.

(3) Barley sorghum: the feeding part depends on import, and the import dependence is high, and its proportion in the feed is controlled below 1%.

(4) Tubers: They have not been fed on a large scale, so they can be evaluated for their feeding value and their feeding potential can be gradually explored.

(5) Soybeans and beans: the domestic production is mainly used for food, so the domestic production should be increased (about 3 million tons) and the export of soybean meal should be controlled (about 1.1 million tons). Promote the reduction of substitution, so that its proportion in the feed gradually down, the highest is expected to be below 8%.

In terms of energy level, the net energy content of domestic grain was 2360 trillion calories/ton, which reached the demand level of feed net energy content (2350 trillion calories/ton). In terms of protein level, the protein content of domestic grain was 9.3%, far lower than the demand level of feed protein content (17.7%).

3. Potential of plant protein production by planting industry

In 2021, the amount of plant protein provided by crop production was 73.12 million tons, accounting for 62.9%; The amount of plant protein provided by imported grain was 42.76 million tons, accounting for 37.1%; The total supply of plant protein in 2021 was 115.88 million tons. After analysis, it is feasible to expand the arable land area by 25 million mu and increase production by 5% in the future.

4. Potential for feeding protein utilization

Animal-derived feed protein sources: dead animals, animal blood, fur animals, table surplus food; It is estimated that 2.4 million tons of protein can be collected and utilized.

The use of microbial protein: pig feed, poultry feed, aquatic animal feed, can add and use 6.84 million tons of protein.

It is estimated that the potential space of feeding protein in the future is about 7.7 million tons.

5. Future coping strategies

Strategy 1: Apply net energy and amino acid balance system to reduce feed protein level on the basis of meeting the nutritional requirements of animals.

Strategy 2: precise formulation and fine processing; Adopt precise nutritional parameters of feed raw materials, apply precise formula and fine processing technology to improve raw material conversion rate.

Strategy 3: Raw material fermentation treatment; Feed raw materials were fermented to degrade macromolecules, eliminate anti-nutritional factors and improve utilization efficiency.

Strategy 4: Support product innovation.

(Credit: Xumuren)