Tariffs, Labor Disruptions, and Early Lunar New Year Fuel Market Uncertainty

Tariffs, Labor Disruptions, and Early Lunar New Year Fuel Market Uncertainty

The global logistics market continues to experience dynamic shifts, influenced by regional disruptions and seasonal demand patterns. Transpacific trade routes are seeing elevated rates, with shippers accelerating activity ahead of potential East Coast port strikes and tariff changes. In North America, labor unrest has highlighted vulnerabilities, as Canadian port disputes have temporarily subsided but remain a point of concern, while East Coast ports face looming uncertainties. Meanwhile, European trans-Atlantic demand is softening despite strong capacity utilization, and Asia-Europe lanes are grappling with rate hikes fueled by General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Lunar New Year preparations. Across air freight markets, peak season surges are visible, particularly on Middle East-North America routes, reflecting heightened sea-air transport demand and holiday-driven activity.


Sea Freight

Asia to North America

  1. With Lunar New Year starting earlier (end of January), rate pressure may begin in late December. 
  2. Market participants have mentioned that the initial slight price increase is attributed to "serious blank sailings" and "USEC rate remain at high side." 
  3. Conversely, ECNA saw a different initial sentiment, with more blank sailings booked than normal, causing rates to plateau then climb modestly higher early in the week. 
  4. On the WCNA route, sources said that volume is very low, with fewer blank sailings occurring despite the Canadian dockworker lockout this week. 

Canada's Port Labor Disputes Resolved (For Now):

Last week, Canada’s Labor Minister intervened in separate labor disputes on both coasts, resulting in lockouts at major container ports. The Industrial Relations Board ordered operations to resume at Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and Montreal, with binding arbitration mandated. 

  1. ILWU Local 514 in British Columbia plans to file legal challenges, indicating potential further disruptions in the future. 
  2. Ports reopened late last week. 

Potential US East Coast Port Strike Looming:

Negotiations between the ILA and USMX broke down again last week. Key sticking points include automation at ports, heightening concerns about a possible strike after the current contract expires on January 15. 

Europe to North America

Trans-Atlantic Demand weakening ab it.  Utilization levels are strong, with blank sailings in place to manage capacity.  Rates have risen 45% since mid-October, driven by reduced capacity (winter passenger schedules) and shifts of freighter capacity to ex-Asia routes.

Indian Subcontinent

Demand is muted.  Rates continue to decline.  

Asia to Europe

Rates have climbed 30% this month due to general rate increases (GRIs) and preparations for the Lunar New Year rush. 

  • Carriers are entering tendering season with Asia-Europe BCOs and adjusting port call rotations in preparation for February’s alliance reshuffles. 


Air Freight

Asia to North America/Europe

Middle East to North America: 

  • Rates climbed 22% in the past three weeks, likely reflecting a peak season bump ahead of Thanksgiving and increased sea-air transport demand. 

China to North America & Europe: 

  • China-North America rates are at yearly highs, driven by e-commerce volume increases. 
  • Rates to Europe have seen modest increases, as peak conditions remain elusive due to pre-planned adjustments by shippers. 

Transatlantic Air Freight: 

  • Rates have risen sharply, reflecting capacity reductions and seasonal demand shifts. 


Need Help Navigating the Current Freight Market?

Please Contact Us Today

– The CargoTrans Team


In Other News...

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Amazon's delivery drivers could soon be forced to wear SMART GLASSES that give them turn-by-turn directions to shave seconds off deliveries – In a bid to shave seconds off deliveries, Amazon could soon force its delivery drivers to wear smart glasses. The smart glasses would guide drivers to, around and within buildings during the 'last 100 yards' of deliveries, according to 'five people familiar with the matter'. [Read More

CMA CGM changes course on plan to re-route service through Red Sea – Pressure from customers has apparently caused French mainline operator CMA CGM to u-turn on plans to operate its INDAMEX (Indian Subcontinent-US East Coast) service through the Suez Canal, just weeks after announcing it. [Read More]

Galaxy Lader's Crewmembers Mark One Year in Houthi Captivity – This week, the crew of the hijacked car carrier Galaxy Leader mark one full year in Houthi captivity near the port of Hodeidah, Yemen. The Galaxy Leader has been held in Houthi custody since the group's commando forces boarded and seized it on November 19, 2023. The Houthis boarded the vessel using a helicopter and quickly seized control of the bridge. It was the group's first high-profile attack on shipping after the start of the war in Gaza, and it presaged countless attacks to follow. [Read More]

US holiday retail sales to reach $1 trillion – About a quarter of those sales will occur online this year, a Forrester report predicts. [Read More]

Panama Canal's Proposed Land Bridge Would Move 5 Million More Containers by 2045 – The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) wants to give shippers a new option to transport goods across the isthmus via rail or truck, but it will need a new dose of funding to get the project off the ground. The ACP is seeking $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion in funding to develop the project, which would allow the canal to move at least 5 million more containers per year by 2045, up from the current 8.3 million boxes that travel through the canal annually. [Read More]

DOT Delivers $580 million to boost port infrastructure – Leaders at American ports are cheering the latest round of federal infrastructure funding announced today, which will bring almost $580 million in Port Infrastructure Development Program (PIDP) awards, funding 31 projects in 15 states and one territory. [Read More]

CEO of Chattanooga's FreightWaves wants to be Trump's secretary of transportation – The CEO of a Chattanooga freight analytics company wants to become President-elect Donald Trump's next secretary of transportation. "I had a lot of encouragement among people that are in my network that this is a role that needs someone that's highly competent in transportation issues," Craig Fuller, the head of FreightWaves, said in a phone call. "At first, I didn't think much of it. I thought it was kind of fun, but then as I started to look at the opportunity and the issues that are pretty profound, it's a great way to highlight things that our transportation industry is dealing with." [Read More]



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