Tick-Tock

“Death inspires me like a dog inspires a rabbit.“

“If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.“

That first quote is from Twenty One Pilots and the second is from Winston Churchill . I thought about both while listening to Donald Trump’s address to the nation last night.

I think Trump’s speech last night was constructive. Weeks late? Yes. Too late? Maybe. But it was his first public statement on CV-19 that reflected seriousness and resolve in the national interest. It was his first public statement that wasn’t overtly corrupt. It’s a start.

Tick-tock.

As for the policy specifics and the bizarro delivery and the walk-backs afterward? I don’t care. As Churchill also said, “war is a series of blunders,” and god knows there is no end to the blunders we have gotten and will continue to get from this guy.

But for the first time our federal government is treating the fight against this virus like the war that it is.

Is it pathetic and sad that it took this long? Of course. But now here we go. And there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States.

As for the market reaction to Trump’s speech today? Please.

The fact that the market doesn’t “like” Trump’s speech is exactly what made it a constructive speech in the national interest.

Like it or not (and I hate it) Donald Trump is President of the United States for the next TEN MONTHS. My reaction to his speech is not about giving him “credit”. It’s not about giving him a “grade”. It’s not about gnashing my teeth and rending my garments over a man who I think has betrayed the public trust at every turn and is the most damaging President in the history of the Republic.

Screw all that. I’m way past THAT.

The ONLY thing I care about now is fighting this war. The ONLY thing I care about now is saving lives.

Welcome to the fight, Mr. President. Hope you stick around.

Tick-tock.

How do we save lives?

First, and most importantly, we help our neighbors.

The Non-Linearity of Need

In a potential recession, need isn’t evenly distributed. In a pandemic, that’s even more true. The time to start helping is now.   … Continue reading

Second, we end #DontTestDontTell.

#DontTestDontTell is not just a policy embarrassment. It is not just simple bureaucratic incompetence. #DontTestDontTell is a willfully corrupt betrayal of our country and its citizens, and it is our moral duty to howl our anger and discontent.

You can read about #DontTestDontTell in Epsilon Theory notes here and here.

You can see it here, in Alabama.

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill: “We don’t need for people to be concerned about something that may not ever happen.”

Alabama has tested 10 people for coronavirus. TEN.

5 million people live in Alabama. Including my 78-year-old mother who’s a substitute teacher and uses a prednisone inhaler for her asthma and her more-than-occasional pneumonia. Shelter in place, Mom, shelter in place.

Alabama, like all states, is getting a chunk of the $8 billion in federal funds recently allocated to fight CV-19. For Alabama that comes to $8.15 million. Know what they’re gonna spend their money on? “Public health communications.” In Alabama-speak, that means posters. Wash-your-hands posters.

Also, a task force has been assembled. Like the Avengers.

Here’s what the task force wants you to know about CV-19. This is from March 6th.

“The Alabama Department of Public Health has issued guidance to hospitals and healthcare centers regarding testing for the virus and encourages Alabamians to take the standard protocol for cold and flu season.”

Yep. Alabamians like my mother and my brother and my sister-in-law and my nephew and my nieces and my childhood friends are “encouraged to take the standard protocol for cold and flu season.”

And you wonder why I am so angry.

Tick-tock, Alabama, tick-tock.

Third, we move to a war-time footing to protect our emergency responders and healthcare professionals, and to bolster our healthcare system.

Specifically that means a national mobilization of manufacturing capacity to make personal protective equipment (PPE), respiratory and anti-viral therapeutics, ventilators, and ECMO equipment to support the surge in CV-19 patients who will require not just hospitalization, but intensive care treatment. It means a broadening of patient under investigation (PUI) criteria and a complete revamping of patient testing and ingestion protocols, including airborne-secure (negative air pressure) facilities inside and outside hospitals and clinics … wherever healthcare professionals come into contact with potential or actual infections.

Specifically that means utilization of domestic military bases as treatment facilities and isolation wards. It means coordination of state and local authorities with the Dept. of Defense to establish regional command, control, communication and intelligence (C3I) capabilities at tertiary medical centers. Yes, direct coordination with the DOD. It’s the most competent, well-resourced C3I organization in the world, and they are present in every domestic battlefront in this war. Yes, tertiary medical centers. They are the most competent, well-resourced medical organizations in the world, and they are also present in every domestic battlefront in this war.

Whether we have a >4% death rate from CV-19 (Wuhan) or a <1% death rate (Singapore) is entirely up to us. It is our choice! If we prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed, then we win. If we don’t, we lose. It’s really as simple as that.

Are we almost out of time?

Absolutely. Tick-tock.

But we all see the danger now. All of us rabbits see the virus dog chasing us. Even Donald Trump.

I said it at the start of this note and I’ll say it again, there is no country in the world that mobilizes for war more effectively than the United States. And I know you won’t believe me, but I tell you it is true:

This will be our finest hour.

Yours in service to the pack – Ben

Epsilon Theory looks at markets and politics through the lenses of narrative, game theory, and history. Sign up for our free weekly email here, and never miss an article.

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