Top geopolitical trends and risks 2025

December 2024 TFG & Pangea-Risk Monthly Briefing

This research and analysis is provided by PANGEA-RISK and distributed in partnership with Trade Finance Global.

Read the full article here

To download the full briefing, click here.

Top 10 elections to watch in 2025

2024 was often termed the ‘year of elections’, with some of the world’s biggest democracies taking to the ballot - including India, the UK, and the US. But in 2025, some significant and impactful elections will occur across frontier and emerging markets. 

The next year of elections will likely be shaped by governance challenges, political transitions and mounting socio-economic frustrations, with some governments potentially using legislative means to maintain control whilst restricting opposition. In fragile democracies and post-military states, inadequate preparation and weak institutions may increase the likelihood of disputed results, particularly where there are existing political tensions and polarised voters. Economic difficulties including inflation and unemployment could fuel civil unrest and demonstrations, especially as opposition groups capitalise on public discontent to challenge governments that suppress dissent.

Here are ten to watch, with factors potentially contributing to instability highlighted. 

Cameroon

Cameroon's political stability is at risk due to the lack of a clear succession plan for ageing President Paul Biya, whose departure could create a power vacuum and potentially prompt military intervention. Rising political and socioeconomic grievances, coupled with election delays and intensified repression, increase the likelihood of opposition-led protests and the risk of military mutinies or even a coup ahead of the 2025 presidential election expected by October.

Cote D’Ivoire

President Alassane Ouattara's intentions for a fourth term remain unclear, and opposition divisions hinder the likelihood of a unified candidate for the October 2025 election. The risk of civil unrest is elevated, driven by potential repressive measures, a possible fourth-term announcement, and socioeconomic grievances like the rising cost of living, which may fuel protests and strikes.

Egypt

The upcoming legislative elections in November 2025 are expected to solidify President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi's grip on Egypt’s political and economic systems, with the pro-government Nation’s Future Party likely to maintain dominance. However, Egypt's deepening economic crisis, marked by inflation and currency depreciation, raises the risk of abrupt policy changes, which could affect businesses and investors; furthermore, sporadic unrest may still emerge from mounting economic grievances despite strong state control.

Gabon

Gabon is set to hold general elections by August 2025, marking a return to democratic rule following the 2023 coup led by interim president General Brice Oligui Nguema. While Nguema’s likely candidacy and the new constitution enabling a potential 16-year rule raise concerns about prolonged military influence and opposition intimidation, his strong public support as a liberator from the Bongo family's rule reduces the immediate risk of significant unrest.

Georgia

The atmosphere for Georgia’s 2025 local elections is set to be highly polarised. The ruling Georgian Dream party expected to use its institutional control to maintain power amid allegations of voter suppression, media bias, and opposition intimidation. Public discontent over governance and the suspension of EU accession talks, alongside fears of a shift toward Russian influence, may fuel opposition efforts to mobilize voters and could trigger further unrest, especially in urban areas.

Iraq

Muqtada Al Sadr's return to politics could potentially challenge the dominance of the Iran-backed Shia Coordination Framework (CF). This could reignite factional rivalries within Shia blocs and increase the risk of violence, while amended electoral laws favouring established parties and accusations of manipulation may further erode political trust and fuel unrest.

Malawi

Malawi’s political landscape is expected to remain volatile leading up to the 2025 general election, with growing public frustration over economic hardships and slow anti-corruption progress fueling the risk of unrest. The election is shaping up as a contest between alliances led by the ruling MCP and the opposition DPP, but no single party is likely to secure a majority, making smaller parties and independents key to forming the next government.

Niger

Political instability in Niger is likely to persist: General Abdourahamane Tiani's military junta is growing isolated from Western and regional partners, and strengthening ties with Russia and China. Delayed national dialogue, political repression, and deteriorating economic conditions fuel public discontent, raising the risk of civil unrest, particularly if elections planned for 2025 are not held.

Tanzania

Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is poised to maintain power in the 2025 general election, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan running for her first full term. While her business-friendly policies are expected to benefit foreign investors, the CCM’s reliance on authoritarian tactics to suppress dissent may fuel political tensions, though these are unlikely to significantly disrupt the broader business environment.

Togo 

President Faure Gnassingbé and the ruling UNIR party are set to maintain their dominance in Togo, with a fragmented opposition and key critics detained, enabling Gnassingbé to potentially stay in power until 2033. While public frustration over economic mismanagement, political repression, and security challenges may fuel sporadic protests, particularly in Lomé as the 2025 election approaches, the opposition’s divisions and waning support reduce the likelihood of a significant uprising.

Read the full article here

To download the full briefing, click here.