Tough times ahead for restaurants by Ann Elliott

Last Wednesday, my husband paid £925 for 10 weeks supply of oil - so roughly £370 per month. We also use electricity and gas for heating and lighting. The last time he bought oil he paid £210 for the same amount. That's an additional cost of just under £300 per month for oil. We do not live in a mansion.>

In the last 2 weeks I have eaten in Gusto (three times ), Café Nero in Manchester ( where I am now), Grainger's in Kings Cross, Brasserie Blanc, The Brown Cow in Bingley, Tossed, The Guildhall, The Renaissance Hotel ( dreadful and expensive), South Place Hotel, Smiths Garden Centre in Bingley, Dishoom in Birmingham, Albert Schloss in Birmingham, The Duke of Sussex in Waterloo, Brewhouse & Kitchen in Milton Keynes and The Signal Box in Euston. Tomorrow I am visiting five pubs with Matt Kearsey from Hall & Woodhouse

Of course going to pubs, bars and restaurants is part of what I do for a living. I am not registered as a limited company but some of these visits can legitimately be reclaimed - but far from all ( and I was treated to some of them too which was lovely). So I can't ignore the fact though that I spend a lot of money on eating out. That's just the truth. And I absolutely love it. It's part of the joy of life for me.

There may be a moment though, in the not too distanced future, when I have to consciously think about how much I spend on eating out and how much we spend on oil and utilities. Something will probably have to give and its unlikely to be our heating. I am absolutely not pleading poverty - rather I am reflecting on the changes that many households may have to make to their discretionary expenditure to accommodate the increases in utility pricing. Just like us and probably just like you.

Most meals we have in restaurants probably hover around the £25 a head (at least) so £50 for a couple. Coffees are £3+ (or £5.63 for an Americano at the Renaissance including 12.5% service charge). Hello Fresh is £70+ a week for 16 meals. Thank goodness we don't have Deliveroo in range or I am sure I would go mad here too.

Most businesses I know have seen a fall off of covers and an increase in spend per head. If customers are having to decide now whether to eat out or eat in, it's very likely that covers will continue to decline over the next 12 months or more.

Personally I think higher end restaurants may well be ok. As will QSR. From the customer research I have conducted, it's also likely that delivery (and click and collect) will continue to retain their % of overall sales if not increase slightly. It's not really feasible that consumers are going to want to go back to the days when they had to cook for the family after a busy day at work. If you don't love cooking and/or find it relaxing, then it's a time wasting boring task quite often ( speaking from personal experience here of course).

Its dine in and mid-market/ casual dining which I think may feel the brunt of customer cut backs. In response these businesses will potentially either look to upscale their whole customer experience and charge accordingly or alternatively try and reduce their spend per head in order not to lose customers. Either way it's a risk.

These are very uncomfortable times. For customers and operators. Discretionary spend per head is going to be scrutinised by many households like mine when utility bills start to bite. I know this has been said already in the sector, but when it hits you personally, it really does come home to you.

PS And I missed the 5 pub visit to Hall & Woodhouse as I caught Covid. Just like everyone else too I think