Towards a New Era of Sustainability Dialogue
The word "sustainability" often carries the impression of "being good for the environment," but its original meaning is "the ability to be sustained."
When we consider sustainability in a narrow sense as environmental sustainability, I feel that from now on we need to consider sustainability in a broader sense, closer to the original meaning of the word.
More specifically, in terms of challenges and domains in Japan, I believe we need to consider how to make our economy, society, and lives sustainable in at least two or more overlapping areas of the following six domains, and how to create innovation in each overlapping area:
The following diagram illustrates this. While a Venn diagram cannot fully represent the overlap of six quadrants, please consider it as an image.
Example: Sustaining a Healthy Diet
Currently, I think it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain our economy and society centered on the six domains mentioned above. As an example, let's consider the difficulty of making food sustainable in Japan.
We need food for our health. However, climate change threatens this. Damage to domestic crops due to global warming is already being seen.
This also affects the employment of agricultural workers involved in food production. For example, the suitable areas for grape cultivation have already changed in Japan. While this may create new opportunities in some regions, current farmers will suffer significant damage. Some of them may even be forced to give up farming.
Even without considering the effects of climate change, the number of agricultural workers in Japan has been declining. Labor shortages, especially in rural areas, are a given, but the aging of agricultural workers is also progressing, with the number of workers expected to decrease to 350,000 by 2050.
In addition, as global warming progresses and daytime temperatures rise, it will become difficult to work outdoors during the day, and heatstroke and other health problems will become more likely. Currently, 70% of core agricultural workers are over 65 years old, and there is a tendency for them to leave farming after the age of 75. However, it is difficult for the elderly to do physical labor in harsh daytime environments, and more people will likely retire earlier than before.
As a result, the exodus of agricultural workers will accelerate, and coupled with the existing labor shortage, the price of domestically produced crops will soar, damaging the health of consumers, especially the poor.
Some may think that relying on imports is a good solution. However, climate change has a global impact. In fact, the price of cacao used in chocolate has tripled, and the price increase is expected to continue for some time.
The issue of water cannot be overlooked either. Climate change has a major impact on water. In areas with water shortages, social tensions rise. And food is also water; 70% of water resources are used for agriculture. Japan is often thought to have abundant water resources, but when considering water used for food, etc. as virtual water, Japan is said to be the largest importer of virtual water. Water consumption is also increasing in various industries around the world. For example, data centers use a large amount of water.
If water shortages occur in various countries, exports will gradually decrease in order to protect their own food and industries. In such a situation, the extent to which Japan can import food and at what price will depend on diplomacy.
On the other hand, the question of whether to allocate a large number of people to domestic agriculture in order to increase food self-sufficiency leads to the question of whether Japan's economic and industrial structure should be oriented in that direction amidst labor shortages. Protected industries are less likely to be globally competitive and are unlikely to be foreign currency earners.
However, without industries that are globally competitive, we cannot earn the money to import agricultural products, energy, and pharmaceuticals, and we will not be able to support the ever-increasing social security costs.
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Furthermore, if employment is allocated to agriculture, employment in areas such as research and plant construction will relatively decrease. This may reduce the probability of innovation contributing to climate change countermeasures. If this happens, the impact of climate change will be even greater.
In addition, with the ongoing labor shortage and the increasing heat, the number of people involved in construction will decrease, raising the cost of various types of construction, including the construction of climate change mitigation measures such as wind power generation and DAC. In fact, the recent rise in material and labor costs has affected various green projects.
If this situation continues, the impact on agriculture mentioned at the beginning will become even greater, and this cycle may accelerate and worsen.
I have taken "food," something familiar to us, as an example. Each domain is interconnected, and trying to improve the sustainability of food alone will undermine the sustainability of other domains. Similar problems exist in familiar areas such as transportation, construction, healthcare, and tourism.
Over the past few decades, the stability of climate change, security, industrial structure, labor shortages, health, and social security has gradually weakened due to changes in the global environment and inter-state relations that form the foundation of economic and social activities. It can be said that it is becoming increasingly difficult to make each of these sustainable on a daily basis.
Therefore, I believe that instead of optimizing each domain individually, a more productive discussion can be had by aiming for a "new, broad sense of sustainability" that is conscious of sustainability in all of these domains.
Change and Flexibility Required for Sustainability
In a rapidly changing environment, it is difficult to remain unchanged or to resist change and try to return to the "good old days" of the past. It is also difficult to avoid or prolong changes through mere efficiency improvements or savings.
Therefore, I believe that we must dynamically and flexibly change the very structure of our society and lives.
To achieve this, we must create innovation in each domain and in the areas where they intersect.
For example, if we look at public transportation in non-urban areas, it is almost certain that tax revenues will decrease due to population decline, making it very difficult to maintain existing public transportation such as trains and buses. If we want to maintain transportation in these areas, we must face the need for change, such as introducing new systems like ride-sharing.
However, if we introduce EVs at that time, we can also curb climate change. Reducing air pollution with EVs can also reduce health problems and social security costs. At the same time, by developing recycling technologies, resources can be kept within Japan, which may also contribute to security. And if we can find such pathways, it will also lead to environmental sustainability.
Such flexible change is what leads to sustainability in its true sense.
Conclusion
In this way, I think that there are many things that can be maintained or even improved as a result of "dynamic change" rather than "remaining in the present" or "returning to the past." This is, so to speak, dynamic and flexible sustainability.
Rather than maintaining and sustaining "the present" and "the current way of doing things," I think it is necessary to discuss "how to make the economy and society sustainable" beyond the conventional meaning of the word sustainability, by thinking about how to change the "way of doing things" when focusing on the outcomes that we can currently enjoy, and by considering the interactions of sustainability in various domains.
I believe that by consciously discussing the six domains mentioned above, we can increase the number of stakeholders involved in each domain and have discussions that lead to better solutions in a way that respects each domain.