TRADE UPDATE: Food & Agriculture March 7, 2023
HIGHLIGHTS
“In this time and place and in this current situation, the traditional approach to free trade agreements — which isn't just that they do tariff cuts, but that they do tariff cuts on a fully comprehensive basis — isn't what we need right now.” - Ambassador Katherine Tai commenting on free trade agreements as reported by Politico.
USMCA
USTR announces USMCA technical consultations with Mexico on agricultural biotechnology
On March 6, The Office of the USTR announced requesting formal technical consultations with the Government of Mexico under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) Chapter of the USMCA. The consultations focus on Mexico’s policies and measures surrounding agricultural biotechnology products, including the recently revised Decree to ban certain GM corn imports. In announcing the action, Ambassador Katherine Tai said, “The United States has repeatedly conveyed our serious concerns with Mexico’s biotechnology policies and the importance of adopting a science-based approach that complies with its USMCA commitments,” Tai continued, "Mexico’s policies threaten to disrupt billions of dollars in agricultural trade and they will stifle the innovation that is necessary to tackle the climate crisis and food security challenges if left unaddressed. We hope these consultations will be productive as we continue to work with Mexico to address these issues.”
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said, “Mexico is an important partner, and we remain committed to maintaining and strengthening our economic and trade ties. A robust, transparent agricultural trading relationship, founded on rules and science, is vital to ensuring food security, mitigating the lingering effects of food price inflation, and helping to address the climate crisis. Innovations in agricultural biotechnology play a key role in advancing these critical, global objectives.” Vilsack continued, “While we appreciate the sustained, active engagement with our Mexican counterparts at all levels of government, we remain firm in our view that Mexico’s current biotechnology trajectory is not grounded in science, which is the foundation of USMCA.”
Several industry stakeholders applauded USTR’s action and continued to express support for a full resolution to the bilateral issue under the USMCA framework.
USTR reaffirms that U.S. concern with GM corn ban is not politically motivated
Earlier, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Mexican Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro met virtually last week to continue discussions regarding Mexico’s biotechnology policies. Following the meeting, Mexico released a statement claiming that U.S. opposition of the decree is politically motivated rather than commercially motivated.
Prior to the statement, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack expressed dissatisfaction with the new decree: “The U.S. believes in and adheres to a science-based, rules-based trading system and remains committed to preventing disruptions to bilateral agricultural trade and economic harm to U.S. and Mexican producers…We are carefully reviewing the details of the new decree and intend to work with USTR to ensure our science-based, rules-based commitment remains firm."
Secretary Vilsack earlier indicated new conversations with Mexico regarding biotech issues will “begin very soon. Vilsack on more than one occasion noted the U.S. seeks full USMCA compliance from Mexico. “This is not a situation that lends itself to compromise.” “From our perspective, you’re talking about a fundamental principle of our trade…which is you need a science-based, rules-based system. And if you begin to inject things that are not scientific, it’s a very slippery slope,” he emphasized.
Recall that Mexico released a new decree on Feb. 13 addressing the GM corn ban, superseding the 2020 decree. Effective immediately, the new decree maintains the prohibition of the use of GM corn for human consumption, in products such as flour, dough, and tortillas. In contrast to the 2020 decree, the new decree allows the use of GM corn for industrial use for human consumption and animal feed while Mexico seeks to pursue self-sufficiency in all corn consumption needs.
U.S. – China
USTR report – China trade compliance poor
USTR’s recently released the 2022 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance which condemns China’s trade practices that “run counter” to the global trading system and states that China’s adherence to WTO commitments remains “poor.” Commenting on the report release, Ambassador Katherine Tai noted in a statement that for “More than 20 years after it acceded to the World Trade Organization, China still embraces a state-led economic and trade approach that runs counter to the open, market-oriented principles endorsed by all members of the organization.” She continued, “China’s approach makes it an outlier and continues to cause serious harm to workers and businesses in the United States and around the world.”
One of the highlights of the report focuses on “new strategies” to tackle the challenges posed by “China’s state-led, non-market approach to the economy and trade, including solutions independent of the WTO.” Components of the strategy include:
U.S. – UK
Senators introduce bill to resume FTA talks with UK
Senators Chris Coons (D-DE) and John Thune (R-SD) introduced legislation last week to provide a two-year extension of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) for the White House to conclude free trade agreement negotiations with the UK. The legislation, Undertaking Negotiations on Investment and Trade for Economic Dynamism (UNITED) Act, would require the administration to launch FTA talks within 180 days of passage to address “tariff and nontariff barriers affecting any industry, product, or service sector,” according to the text. This authority would be terminated in two years, March 1, 2025. The bill also references USMCA as the standard for bilateral negotiations, “Congress passed the USMCA with over whelming bipartisan support, setting high standards in North America with respect to labor rights, the environment, intellectual property, non-market practices, and services, and those standards should inform future negotiations.
Notably the bill reflects some aspects of a bill introduced by Senator Coons and former Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) in the last Congress, Trading System Preservation Act, that would have provide limited TPA authority to pursue a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.K., Kenya, Taiwan and Ecuador.
The Senators’ legislation emerges shortly after the UK and EU announced the “Windsor Framework” regarding trade rule and border policy for Northern Ireland, a contentious issue since Brexit between the two trade partners. The agreement promises to uphold the Good Friday Agreement, a major concern for several U.S. lawmakers, and seeks to advance peace, stability and prosperity in North Ireland. The White House released a statement noted the Windsor Framework could preserve and strengthen the peace secured under the Good Friday Agreement.
As an aside, the USDA recently released a report on the UK’s post-Brexit agriculture production and trade policy.
U.S. – Indo-Pacific
IPEF trade pillar round two set for Indonesia
The Office of USTR continues preparations for the second round of talks on the IPEF Pillar I (Trade), scheduled for March 12-19 in Bali, Indonesia. The U.S. delegation, led by USTR, joined by Department of Commerce and other agency officials will be “led by Sarah Ellerman, IPEF Pillar I Chief Negotiator and Assistant United States Trade Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific (Acting), and Sharon H. Yuan, Department of Commerce Counselor and Chief Negotiator for Pillars II-IV,” according to a USTR and Commerce Department statement. The agencies noted that additional details regarding the Indonesia negotiating round will be provided at a later date.
Last December, the first round of IPEF trade talks were held in Brisbane, Australia. The first round of talks on IPEF Pillars II-IV were recently held in New Delhi, India.
Trade Trends
U.S. goods trade deficit expands on strong import demand
The U.S. trade deficit in goods increased $1.8 billion in January, propelled largely by increased imports. The international trade deficit registered at $91.5 billion in January, increasing 2.0% from $89.7 billion in December. Exports of goods for January were $173.8 billion, $7.0 billion more than December exports. Imports of goods for January were $265.3 billion, $8.8 billion more than December imports.
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Trade Policy
Free trade agreements not off the table in the future according to Katherine Tai
In an interview, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai stated that while the Biden Administration maintains the belief that negotiating new free trade agreements is not appropriate under current economic conditions, they remain open to the possibility in the future.
USTR releases annual trade policy agenda
The Biden Administration 2023 trade agenda will continue to lean into enforcing existing trade agreement and pursuit of trade arrangements and partnerships, rather than traditional comprehensive Free Trade Agreements. The Office of USTR delivered last week delivered President Biden’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda and 2022 Annual Report to Congress. In releasing the report Ambassador Tai touched both enforcement and new trade arrangements stating, “From enforcing the USMCA to creating innovative trade arrangements with our allies and partners, we will continue to pursue an agenda that will deliver sustainable and inclusive economic prosperity for all.”
The Office of USTR noted key elements of the trade policy agenda, including, enforcing existing trade agreements, addressing trade challenges with China, and promoting resilient supply chains, among others. On agriculture the USTR fact sheet reads:
Biden appoints new members to the President’s Export Council
On Tuesday, the White House released an announcement detailing the appointment of 25 new members to the President’s Export Council. The council is responsible for advising the President on policies and programs that impact U.S. trade performance. In addition, the council promotes export expansion and serves as a forum to discuss various trade-related challenges.
Ways & Means Chair outlines trade priorities
Representative Jason Smith (R-MO), new Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee outlined legislative and oversight ambitions in several Committee policy areas, including social security, tax and trade. In a February 28th letter to Budget Committee Chair, Jody Arrington (R-TX), Chairman Smith outlined the following ambitions on trade.
Supply Chains
Container Shipping rates hit new low
Increased new vessel capacity coupled with a decline in cargo demand continue to push ocean container trade prices for transpacific routes. Rates are expected to soften further as importers and retailers seem poised to dictate price points for new shipping contracts according to Bloomberg.
Ukraine
Ukraine calls upon UN and Turkey to initiate talks to extend Black Sea deal
With the looming deadline to renew the Black Sea grain deal, set to expire March 19th, Ukraine has called about the United Nations and Turkey to initiate negotiations with Russia to renew the grain export deal.
In a speech at the United Nations Conference on Least Developed Countries, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated "We are working hard for the smooth implementation and further extension of the Black Sea grain deal."
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Restoration Yuriy Vaskpov stated that Ukraine is calling for at least a one-year extension of the deal. In addition, Ukraine wants the extension to include the ports of Mykolaiv. The current deal includes three Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. There are currently 26 ships stuck in Mykolaiv. If the ports of Mykolaiv are added to the deal, Ukraine’s capacity to export would increase from 6 million tons per month to 8 million tons.
WTO
The WTO released a note — entitled “A Year of Turbulence on Food and Fertilizers Markets” in the context of export restrictions in the wake the war in Ukraine. The WTO emphasized the note is “to provide a brief factual overview of trade policy developments following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In the document, the WTO reported that, “Since the beginning of the war and up to 28 February 2023, 96 export restrictions on essential agricultural commodities were identified to have been applied by 29 WTO members and six observers. Of these, 88 applied to food and feed and eight specifically targeted fertilizer exports. Over the past 12 months, some 28 measures were phased out, thus bringing to 68 the total number of measures currently applied (63 on food and five on fertilizers) by 27 WTO members and five observers. The export restrictions currently in force cover approximately USD 85 billion of total world exports.
New phase of WTO dispute settlement reform begins
In January, informal dispute settlement reform discussions concluded. These initial meetings gave members a forum to discuss what they’d like to see in an improved WTO dispute settlement system. While initial discussions were U.S. led, further reform discussions will be led by Guatemala. The new phase of reform will include proposals and text-based negotiations, with the goal of reaching a final resolution.
Food Security
Global food prices continue declining for the 11th consecutive month
The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index averaged 129.8 points in February, falling modestly at 0.6 percent compared to January. February’s price index decline marks the 11th consecutive month of receding prices and has declined 30 percentage points (18.7 percent) since the peak level in March 2022. Decreases in the price indices for vegetable oils and dairy were the primary drivers and offset a sharp rise in the sugar price index, according to FAO. Other highlights from the report include:
U.S. – Brazil
More lawmakers call for Brazilian beef import restrictions
Last week Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) and Representative Mary Miller (R-IL) voiced safety concerns with Brazilian beef imports following reports of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). “I believe recent concerns with Brazil’s food safety practices justify the immediate suspension of Brazil’s fresh beef imports until USDA can ensure livestock producers that Brazilian beef does not pose a risk to spread BSE or other potentially dangerous livestock diseases,” Senator Daines (R-MT) wrote in a letter to President Biden. Separately, Representative Miller (R-IL), in letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack wrote, “Brazil has already halted their beef exports to China, and I am concerned that Brazilian beef will be re-directed to the U.S. market where Brazilian beef imports have spiked in recent years.”
Recall that earlier Senators Jon Tester (D- MT) and Mike Rounds (R-SD) reintroduced a bipartisan bill to temporarily suspend U.S. imports of Brazilian beef imports to examine such imported products’ impacts on food safety and animal health. “Folks shouldn’t have to worry about whether the products they buy at the grocery store are safe to eat, and that’s why we need to halt Brazilian beef imports until Brazilian producers can prove that their products meet our health and safety standards,” Tester said.