Trends and insights to guide producers

Compiled by Lardus Basson / 🤖 AI Translation / Edited by Tian Nel

At GWK, our agricultural-economic division monitors past and upcoming trends to help producers make informed decisions. Here's the latest on grain markets, global developments, and local updates.

Grain News

Recent price movements in the grain markets have been shaped by a combination of domestic and international factors.

South African Grain Prices:

Over the past two months, SAFEX markets have experienced upward price trends. This is largely due to local challenges, including a tough summer season and delayed planting caused by below-average spring rainfall. In eastern regions such as the Highveld and Eastern Free State, planting began in October but has been sporadic, depending on sufficient soil moisture. Western regions, including Bothaville, Hoopstad, and North West, planned to start planting in November but have also faced scattered and inconsistent rainfall.

As planting remains delayed, price pressures are expected to persist, driven by concerns over future stock levels.

Global factors, like declining palm oil stocks, have also contributed to a sharp rise in sunflower prices.

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Global News

United States:

The November elections marked a pivotal moment in American politics. Donald Trump decisively won the presidency, securing a second term that is set to have far-reaching implications for global economic and political dynamics.

Key Issues Likely to Shape Trump's Term:

• US import/export tariffs and trade agreements.
• The US’s role in NATO—any weakening of the alliance may embolden China's stance on Taiwan.
• The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the level of global involvement.
• Rising tensions in the Middle East, with potential for escalation.

With Republicans gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump’s administration will likely face fewer legislative hurdles.

Europe:

The latest Eurozone economic data showed stronger-than-expected growth, with a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter increase.

• France and Spain outperformed expectations.
• Germany narrowly avoided a recession but continues to struggle with momentum.

Asia: China's economy remains robust, supported by widespread stimulus measures designed to sustain growth.

Local News

South Africa: Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the medium-term budget speech on 30 October, focusing on debt consolidation and curbing runaway expenditure. Key measures included:

• No additional bailouts for struggling state-owned enterprises like the post office.
• Early retirement packages for public servants to reduce the wage bill.

Investment in infrastructure was emphasised as critical, alongside public-private partnerships to maintain, upgrade, and initiate new projects. Minister Godongwana highlighted that growth remains the ultimate solution to addressing South Africa’s economic challenges.

Positive Takeaway: South Africa is projected to achieve a primary surplus for the first time in 15 years, meaning government spending will be lower than its revenue—a promising step towards fiscal health.

Sources

• BER Weekly, Stellenbosch, 2024
• CME Group: Agriculture/Grains
• The Economist: Impact of a Second Trump Presidency
• Netwerk24: Godongwana's Growth Plan

Let us know how these insights are shaping your strategies in the agri-sector! #AgricultureEconomics #GrainMarkets #LeadershipInAgri