Trump win will impact U.N. climate talks. Here is what to know

Hello. My name is Peter Prengaman and I’m the climate and environment news director for The Associated Press . I’m writing this AP Climate Watch from Baku, Azerbaijan, where the U.N. climate conference, COP29, got underway this week.

There is no way around it: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s win last week will affect international efforts to combat climate change. Trump has repeatedly dismissed the seriousness of global warming, referred to higher miles-per-gallon vehicle requirements as part of a “green new scam” and promised to increase oil drilling and production, among other efforts to boost fossil fuels that are the drivers of climate change. 

So, what might be achieved? COP29, as the conference is called, is expected to focus on how to transfer trillions of dollars to help the world, and in particular developing countries, transition to green energies like wind, geothermal and solar.  

This much money is likely to come in large part from governments. But will there be much to discuss when the U.S., by far the largest donor of foreign aid, won’t likely contribute to climate financing the next four years? 

The answer is yes. 

Click on the video to watch ⬇️

The world has changed since Trump first won the presidency in 2016 and pulled America from the Paris Agreement. While climate change has been happening for decades, the brutality of extreme weather the last few years has made the issue unavoidable, even for rich countries with resilient infrastructure and more resources.  

At the same time, the world is transitioning to clean energies. Thirty percent of all electricity generated came from renewables in 2023. The green transition may be slowed but ultimately it won’t be stopped. 

Here are some things to watch for at COP29: 

Will other countries step up? 

China is already the world leader in the production of solar panels and electric vehicles. The European Union, with its new tariffs on the importation of carbon- intensive products like steel and cement, among other policies, is arguably the world leader in efforts to put a price on carbon pollution, which climate and economic experts have long argued would push companies to decarbonize.  

The departure of the U.S. from international climate engagement will allow both China and the EU to further solidify their positions. It will also allow other countries to take a more prominent role. Some may feel a moral imperative to act, as 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record.  

Building the bank, not funding it—yet  

What negotiators hope to come away with from COP29 is how trillions of dollars will be raised for climate finance. Even in the best of circumstances, it would be unrealistic to expect them to come away from COP29 with all that money committed, much less in the bank.  

In sum, if a strong framework to generate climate finance is hammered out, countries will build on that in the years to come. What’s most important now is the how, and that will likely be divisive.  

Because the amount of money needed goes beyond what governments, banks, other businesses and philanthropies can or will contribute, there is increasing talk of using carbon credit schemes to generate much of the money.  

Currently, thousands of projects around the world cancel out pollution, such as by planting trees, which absorb carbon dioxide. While many companies buy offsets, in general there is a lack of trust in many such carbon credit programs. The last couple of years, there has been much talk about creating an international system of carbon credits that would be widely trusted, and also then help generate money for climate finance.  

We’re likely to hear more about such efforts at COP29.  

Catalyzing a green transition or greenwashing? 

Azerbaijan commercialized the first oil fields and today is a petrostate, which many climate experts say should disqualify it from hosting a climate conference. Last year, COP28 was hosted by another petrostate, the United Arab Emirates.  

Petrostates and oil and gas companies say they are part of the energy transition, noting that they the capital and technological know-how to take to the next level technologies like carbon capture and fuels like hydrogen made from renewables.  

How much energy transition is truly happening in the oil and gas sector is, at best, debatable. Many environmentalists argue that allowing a country like Azerbaijan to host amounts to a license to greenwash, that is, exaggerate their efforts at combating climate change. 

What is ultimately decided at COP29 could either bolster the contention that oil countries and companies are part of the green energy transition or the argument that they are holding it back. 

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What else you need to know: 

🛬 Use of private jets, and the pollution they create, are increasing sharply 

🦌 Deer that roam the Florida Keys are facing risks from climate change 

🐟 Big fish in Brazil, a sustainability success story, are threatened by drought

✅ Climate Solutions

For developing nations, it’s very difficult to get affordable loans for projects that help them adapt to the impacts of climate change. The same is true for loans to buy carbon-free technologies like wind, solar and geothermal.  

Enter multilateral development banks.  

These mega international banks, which get funding from several nations, can issue loans to developing nations at much lower interest rates than private banks. This graphically driven story explains how they work.  

Thank you for reading this newsletter. We’ll be back next week. For questions, suggestions or ideas please email ClimateWatch@ap.org

This newsletter was written by Peter Prengaman, news director for climate and environment, and produced by climate engagement manager Natalia Gutiérrez.

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