Turkey gets tough on Israel after AKP losses at the polls

By Ragip Soylu - MEE Turkey Bureau Chief

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a senior delegation from Hamas over the weekend, including the group’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

The meeting was the first public encounter between Erdogan and Hamas’ leadership since the 7 October attack on southern Israel.

The meeting also came less than two weeks after Israel killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren in an air strike, triggering condemnation by the Turkish president and other senior officials from the ruling Freedom and Justice Party (AKP).

Since the start of the war, Turkey has attempted to support the roles played by other key Arab states in the region, such as Qatar and Egypt, in helping broker a ceasefire.

But in recent months, political pressure and losses at the polls have forced Erdogan to take a harder line on Israel as the death toll continue to spiral in Gaza.

Ankara goes public with Hamas

Turks dealt Erdogan and his party their biggest electoral blow some three weeks ago, when the AKP lost the popular vote in regions previously considered their strongholds.

Analysts said that economic strains, including nearly 70 percent inflation and a slowdown in growth brought on by an aggressive monetary-tightening regime, moved voters to punish the AKP.

But, another less mentioned factor that led to the AKP’s losses was the government’s policy regarding Gaza.

As I explained in a recent column, many voters appear to have been angered by Turkey’s decision to continue trade with Israel.

And Erdogan’s embrace of an increasingly nationalistic outlook and shift away from reformist Islamist ideas, appears to have provided an opening for the relatively new Islamist YRP (the New Welfare Party).

The government was apparently puzzled by voters casting their ballot for other parties, or staying away at the polls altogether, allowing the main opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party) to win 35 out of 81 municipalities including 14 out of 30 urban areas in the country

They government maintains that since the war erupted it’s taken a clear stance against Israel by withdrawing its ambassador for consultations and freezing all diplomatic engagement with Israel.

Turkey officially backed South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ, has repeatedly condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials for the bloodbath in Gaza, and has also become a top humanitarian donor to Gaza.

But for many Turkish voters, and countless others in the region, the optics of trading with Israel in the middle of a devastating humanitarian crisis showed Ankara wasn’t doing enough.

It appears like Erdogan may have finally got the message and has since made changes to policies concerning Israel.

First, after a top meeting at the presidency, the Turkish Trade Ministry announced that it would restrict the export of more than 50 products to Israel effective immediately.

Second, Erdogan personally called Haniyeh to convey his condolences and released a readout to the wider public. He then met Haniyeh in Istanbul, hugging him and other Hamas leaders and releasing pictures showing that love wasn’t lost.

Third, he dispatched Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Qatar to meet Hamas officials and deepen discussions on a possible permanent ceasefire and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Fidan also, by meeting top Qatari officials, ended rumours that there was daylight between Ankara and Doha, reiterating Turkish support to Qatar in its mediation role.

It is also important to note that Fidan underlined one factor that might tip the scales: He told journalists in televised remarks that Hamas would shutter its armed wing with the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Turkey has been trying to tell the world that Hamas isn’t against a two-state solution per se, and it’s still possible to hash out a final settlement with the group.

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Worth mentioning

• One final thing that could set the stage for Turkey in the war on Gaza is the second international flotilla that aims to leave Istanbul today. Organised by many pro-Palestine groups in the West, the flotilla has three ships, including a freighter, to carry humanitarian aid to Gaza and break the blockade imposed by Israel. Even though the flotilla’s spokesperson and main organisers are Americans and Europeans, Turkish aid organisation IHH has a central role in the planning. Israel perceives IHH to be a terror group, and there is no doubt that Israel could raid the ships if they attempt to approach near Gaza waters. Ankara doesn’t want another incident in international waters like the Mavi Marmara attack when Israel killed nine Turkish soldiers in 2010. It will be interesting to see whether they will be able to leave the Turkish port.
• German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is visiting Turkey this week. His decision to meet Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on Monday without first paying a visit to Erdogan raised eyebrows in Ankara. Imamoglu is the likely challenger for 2028 presidential elections and the optics of a German President backing a rival aren’t great. Steinmeier also threw a party in Istanbul on the 60th anniversary of Turkish workers arrival in Germany, inviting many political heavyweights such as former President Abdullah Gul. His choice to highlight Turkish contribution to German society with a doner kebab didn’t go down well with the public. “A Turkish-German scientist discovered the most effective Covid vaccine, and the German president brings a döner kebap maker to Turkey,” mocked Ozan Demircan, a former Turkey correspondent at Handelsblatt, in a tweet. Many pro-Palestine demonstrators also protested Steinmeier for Berlin’s support for Israel, including an antique store owner playing a European march that calls for the independence of Palestine while he was visiting a museum next door in Istanbul’s Cukurcuma.
• The Turkish Family Ministry’s fight against gender theory is continuing. Many conservative members of the government find the use of the word “gender” as something that supports the LGBTQ community and undermines family values. The annual activity report by the ministry indicates that Turkey expressed reservations over the use of the word “gender” at the G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration last year. “Our country's attitude regarding the concept in question was reflected as a comment,” the report said. The family ministry also advised the Treasury Ministry that if such concept enters in the declaration, Ankara’s reservations must be noted within the footnote. Last year, during the election campaign, Erdogan blamed the opposition for legitimising what he called “LGBTQ perversion” and so far, his government has limited its actions against pro-LGBT groups to denying them a pride parade or screening of pro-LGBT movies. Erdogan exited the Istanbul Convention on violence against women for similar reasons, citing gender dispute.

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