Turkiye ‘not in a position’ to ratify Swedish NATO bid
Turkiye ‘not in a position’ to ratify Swedish NATO bid
ISTANBUL: Turkiye said on Saturday it was “not in a position” to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership, despite a series of steps taken by Stockholm to meet Ankara’s demands.
“We are not in a position to send a (ratification) law to the parliament,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin.
Sweden and Finland are unlikely to be able to join NATO before June, said the senior Turkish official.
The Nordic states applied to join the Western military alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but their membership must be approved by all 30 NATO states.
Only Turkiye and Hungary have yet to approve the deal, with Ankara linking accession to stricter counterterrorism measures.
“It really depends on how fast they move and how wide and deep they move on these issues,” said Kalin.
“What they’re telling us is the new laws will be fully effective and completed by June, but maybe there are some things they can do before,” Kalin said.
Turkiye has demanded that Sweden and Finland tighten laws to rein in the activities of supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and a group it blames for a 2016 coup attempt.
“In principle we would like to see them (Sweden and Finland) in NATO,” Kalin said in Istanbul.
“What they say is that they need a little bit more time. We told them ‘You have to meet these conditions,’ meaning that they have to send a serious message to the PKK.”
Ankara recognizes the Swedish and Finnish commitment to changing anti-terror laws in accordance with an agreement signed between the three countries at last June’s NATO summit, he added.
“Stockholm is fully committed to implementing the agreement that was signed last year in Madrid, but the country needs six more months to write new laws that would allow the judicial system to implement the new definitions of terrorism.”
The timetable for presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkiye could also play a role, Kalin said.
The polls are currently scheduled for June 18, but the timing of a religious holiday could see them brought forward a month. Any NATO deal must be ratified by parliament, which is likely to go into recess before the elections.
Officials from Turkiye, Sweden and Finland will meet in Brussels in February, but Kalin warned that incidents such as the hanging of an effigy of Erdogan in Stockholm on Wednesday could have a negative impact on negotiations.
“We believe in this process and we want to make progress, but if these incidents continue, it’s not going to look good on them and it will certainly affect the process — it will slow down progress,” he said.
Kalin also spoke about the war in Ukraine, and Turkiye’s rapprochement with Syria.
He defended Ankara’s decision not to join Western sanctions on Russia, pointing to the grain deal and prisoner exchanges as successes for its role as an intermediary.
Such “localized moments of de-escalation” would help bring an end to the war.
“If the goal (of sanctions) was to change Russian behavior and end the war, I don’t think that’s been achieved,” he said.
Referring to talks to normalize relations between Ankara and Damascus, Kalin said the initial meeting between the neighbors’ defense ministers at the end of December could be extended, with foreign ministers possibly meeting in February.
“We will see how these meetings go, what kind of outcomes they produce and then, depending on that, we will talk about a possible meeting at the level of the president,” he said.
Erdogan has been a bitter critic of Syrian President Bashar Assad since the outbreak of the civil war 11 years ago and has thrown his support behind opposition groups fighting for Assad’s overthrow.
The Turkish president, however, is under intense pressure at home to return Syrian refugees amid an economic crisis.
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Syrian FM: No normal ties with Turkiye without end to occupation
LONDON: Syrian foreign minister Faisal Mekdad said on Saturday that Turkiye would have to end its military presence in his country to achieve a full rapprochement.
“We cannot talk about resuming normal ties with Turkiye without removing the occupation,” he said after meeting his Iranian counterpart in Damascus.
Turkiye has been a major backer of the political and armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar Assad during the 12-year conflict in Syria, and has sent its own troops into swathes of the country’s north.
Russia, a key ally of Assad, is supporting a rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara, hosting talks between their defense ministers last month and aiming for meetings between the foreign ministers and eventually presidents.
Mekdad said on Saturday “a meeting between Assad and the Turkish leadership depends on removing the reasons for the dispute,” without providing more details or mentioning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by name.
Mekdad was speaking after meeting in Damascus with Hossein Amirabdollahian, the foreign minister of Assad’s other main ally, Iran.
Amirabdollahian, who also met Assad on Saturday, said on Friday that Iran was “happy with the dialogue taking place between Syria and Turkiye.”
Assad said on Friday the results should be based on the principle of ending the occupation and support for terrorism, a term that Syrian authorities use to refer to all opposition armed groups.
A source with close knowledge of the negotiations said Syria wanted Turkiye to pull its troops from swathes of the north and to halt support to three main opposition factions.
The source said Syria was keen to see progress on those demands through follow-up committees before agreeing to a foreign ministers’ meeting.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday he could meet Mekdad early in February, rejecting reports the two could meet next week.
Syria has made no official comment on the timing of any such meeting, which would mark the highest-level talks between Ankara and Damascus since the Syrian war began in 2011.
Meanwhile, Syria and Iran agreed Saturday to renew an economic strategic arrangement between the two countries as Damascus prepares to welcome Iran’s president in the near future.
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“Tehran and Damascus will continue to cooperate in all matters, especially with energy,” Amirabdollahian said at a news conference following the meetings.
Mekdad echoed similar sentiments, adding that developments in the “coming days” will further bolster them.
“We explored ways to expand economic and commercial ties and enhance cooperation to confront the illegal Western coercive economic measures imposed on both countries,” Mekdad said.
(With Reuters and AP)
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WSJ. Iran Restricts Supply of Cheap Oil to Syria, Leaving Ally in Crisis
Tehran doubles the price Damascus pays for crude, touching off a Syrian fuel shortage as its own economy sputters
Iran’s ambitions to position itself as a leading power broker in the Middle East have been dealt a fresh blow—this time by its own struggling economy and how it is crimping Tehran’s ability to supply cheap oil to allies such as Syria.
Iran has an inflation rate of about 50% and more than a third of its population now lives in poverty.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has used cash and discounted oil in a hearts-and-minds campaign to expand its influence in Syria and challenge regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran and Russia are the main military sponsors of the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, helping him to suppress an armed rebellion that began during the pro-democracy Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.
In recent weeks, Iranian officials have told their Syrian counterparts they would now have to pay more for additional shipments of oil as peak winter demand sets in, people familiar with the matter said, doubling the price to a market rate of more than $70 a barrel. Tehran also asked Damascus to pay in advance for the oil, refusing new requests for deliveries on credit, the people added—further buffeting a Syrian economy that depends on Iran for more than half its oil requirements.
The result is that Syria is suffering its worst shortage of fuel since the start of the civil war, according to analysts.
Every day, residents of the capital line up for hours near idle gas stations, according to Syrian media outlets. The cost of transport has surged, straining a struggling economy as prices of goods shoot higher. The government last month shut down some administrative offices for several days to save energy. Many factories are closing down as they struggle to find fuel to run generators amid a scarcity of electricity.
Worst hit are the poor, many of whom now burn wood and pistachio shells to cook and keep warm. Syrian households have historically relied on fuel to power their heaters, but prices have risen fivefold in the past year. That makes it unaffordable for most families already reeling from spiraling inflation and a local currency that fell to a record low last month.
With anger growing over the fuel shortages, some people are taking to the streets to protest despite fears of a government crackdown.
“It’s the worst fuel crisis in living memory for Syria,” said Fabrice Balanche, a Middle East-focused assistant professor at the University of Lyon 2 in France. “Iran can’t afford its regional ambitions.”
During a meeting with Mr. Assad on Saturday in Damascus, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian vowed to maintain strong ties with Syria, state media in both countries said. The two sides discussed a power-generation project, Iran’s state news agency IRNA said, but made no reference to oil supplies.
Things aren’t likely to improve in Damascus unless there is a change in Iran’s prospects. With international sanctions combined with an inflation rate of 50% and the impact of internet restrictions and other measures to snuff out antigovernment protests over the death of a young woman in police custody last fall, that won’t likely happen soon.
More than a third of Iran now lives in poverty, compared with 20% in 2015, and the local currency fell to a historic low against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks.
“Now we are ourselves under pressure,” said Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman at the Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union in Tehran. “There is no reason to sell to Syria at low prices.”
Foreign ministries for both countries didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
While the volume of oil that Tehran sent to Damascus in the last quarter of 2022 was similar to the year before, it has refused to increase the supply to meet higher demand in Syria. A credit line that previously allowed Syria to pay later was quickly exhausted after Iran raised the price from a rate of $30 a barrel, the people familiar with the matter said—prompting the Islamic Republic to charge its ally upfront.
Syria usually receives at least two shipments of oil a month from Iran. But the next tanker isn’t due to leave Iran for Syria until early March—a hiatus of 11 weeks, according to commodities data firm from Kpler. The last shipment departed in mid-December, says Kpler, which relies on maritime tracking, port data and sources in the shipping community.
With sanctions on its oil sales expected to remain in place after talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal stalled last year, Iran heavily discounts its oil to most customers. But it could likely get more on the open market than what Syria paid until recently.
China typically imports around one million barrels a day of Iranian oil, most of it through covert routes, shipping trackers and Iran oil traders say—and unlike Damascus, China has historically paid for its oil upfront. Officials in Tehran say Iran is interested in increasing those sales to better support its economy.
The stakes are also rising for Mr. Assad.
Backed by Moscow and Tehran, he has clawed back control over much of Syria from rebel forces and the militant group Islamic State. But with infrastructure devastated in large parts of the country and the economy struggling to recover from more than a decade of war, Syria desperately needs foreign aid. Russia and Iran were expected to provide at least some of that assistance while benefiting from lucrative contracts for reconstruction and the development of Syria’s natural resources among other sectors of the economy.
Though Syria also produces some crude, Kurdish rebels control the oil fields in the country’s northeast. Supplies from there have been disrupted in recent months after Turkey carried out strikes against Kurdish militant groups based in the area.
With Russia preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, and Iran trying to stabilize its own economy, Mr. Assad appears to have less room to maneuver and might eventually look for help from other oil-rich neighbors, analysts say, including Iran’s rivals—the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
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US climate envoy Kerry outlines carbon offset initiative for developing nations
Kerry told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi the aim was to create bankable deals to accelerate the reduction of emissions, stressing that the ETA was not a substitute for other funding sources and would be time-limited.
ABU DHABI: US climate envoy John Kerry on Sunday outlined core principles for a "high-integrity" carbon offset plan meant to help developing nations speed their energy transition, and next steps including establishing a consultative group.
The Energy Transition Accelerator (ETA), first announced at last year's COP27 climate conference, is being developed by the US with the Bezos Earth Fund and the Rockefeller Foundation to mobilize private capital.
Kerry told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi the aim was to create bankable deals to accelerate the reduction of emissions, stressing that the ETA was not a substitute for other funding sources and would be time-limited.
"We believe you can have high-integrity, accountable, transparent credit which will help us to be able to put some money on the table," he said, acknowledging widespread criticism of voluntary carbon offset schemes.
Such schemes, in which companies get emissions credits in return for channeling cash to poor countries that cut their carbon output, have often been riddled with fraud and double-counting.
"There are only two purposes for which we will allow someone to be able to buy a credit - one, to be closing down or transitioning existing fossil fuel facility that is providing power, and two, for the actual deployment of renewables that will replace current dirty sourcing," Kerry said.
He said ETA principles also called for a near-term, inclusive and comprehensive approach to deliver on broader sustainable development goals and support power sector-wide energy transition.
The Rockefeller Foundation on Sunday published a joint statement with a preliminary list of members of the ETA High-Level Consultative Group which Kerry said would provide a broad cross-section of input and would add more participants.
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