No turning back: Canada must change course from its pre-pandemic path

Step back for a moment to the beginning of the year and remember the excitement and promise of the new decade that was just ahead of us. In those few short minutes before ringing in the New Year, we had no idea how profoundly our world was about to change.

But change it did. Seemingly, overnight, a deadly virus swept the globe, taking lives, destroying economies, disrupting governments, industries and businesses, and changing the way we live and work.

What many may be unaware of, is that even before COVID-19, Canada was a on a path that was threatening our standard of living.

Over the past several years, Deloitte has studied the issues impeding our well-being, speaking up when needed, and providing constructive—actionable--solutions for how we can address the challenges we face.

We made the business case for greater productivity in The future of productivity series, for equity and inclusion in Outcomes over optics, for global competitiveness in Bold bets for our country, for innovation in our series on Canada's AI imperative and for infrastructure in Canada’s Competitiveness Scorecard.

The pandemic has put a spotlight on many of the challenges we have long ignored, and the fact of the matter is, we are running out of time to right the course.

That’s why, today, Deloitte has released Catalyst: A vision for a thriving Canada in 2030 - a blueprint for a new future. A better future. This report provides clarity where little seemed to exist.

We used proprietary economic modelling to develop two forecasts: the “Stuck in Neutral" forecast, which illustrates what could happen if Canada returns to its pre-pandemic ways, and the “Thrive 2030” forecast, which lays out what we could achieve together with bold action.

To bolster these forecasts, we interviewed Canadian business leaders—surveying nearly 900 business executives—and held a youth symposium to get input from the next generation.

Here are a few of our most compelling findings – clearly making the case for not returning to our pre-COVID path and why we should work together to ensure a resilient future:

• Without concerted action, GDP growth would slow to just 1.7 percent per year, which is significantly lower than the average annual growth of 2.2 percent over the past decade – much of which would be driven by insufficient workers, capital investment, and innovation to drive growth. 
• With bold action, GDP growth rate could rise to 2.7 percent, putting Canada at the top of the G7 in economic growth and job creation, making it more attractive for both businesses and global talent. Per capita, this would mean an increase of $4,900 in annual income, or a $19,600 increase in annual income for a family of four – a big improvement in quality of life.

These findings come at a pivotal time – giving us the ability to see what could be. Now, we have to choose what we do with this information – do we take this opportunity to alter course, or stand by as our quality of life slips away?

This report is a challenge, a path forward and a call for action – to Canadian governments, business leaders, and citizens to work together with the same creative collaboration, respect and trust as we have shown during the pandemic.

Although everything still seems so uncertain and we are unsure of what the remainder of 2020 will bring – we must set our sights on the big picture; face up to the challenges, not turn away.

Please read this report. Open your mind to the possibilities and let it inspire you to act and help build a bigger, brighter and stronger Canada.

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