UK GDP Figures - ALTERNATIVE TAKE

Here's an alternative take on today’s GDP figures for anyone looking for a shot of optimism.

We've all seen this morning's headlines.

GDP fell by 0.5% in Dec, following growth of 0.1% (Nov) and 0.5% (Oct).

Q4 GDP GROWTH: 0.01%

Importantly, the UK has not entered recession. 

Despite wave after wave of apocalyptic forecasts.

Despite the recession achieving more sightings in 2022 than the Loch Ness Monster... it looks like Nessie may indeed have been the safer bet as, once again, the UK's much reported recession is nowhere to be found in the data.

DESPITE high energy prices negatively impacting consumer purchasing power.

DESPITE the worst transport and services strikes to hit the nation in decades.

DESPITE high interest rates throttling business and consumer credit markets.

DESPITE the conveyor belt of recession headlines driving investment hesitancy.

DESPITE all of it... you wake up to Declan Curry, Mr Numbers on LBCs market bulletin... the Economy bucks every prediction out there, avoids recession, even demonstrates a glimmer of growth… but rather than the celebratory headlines that our business sectors should be bathed in right now, we get this: 

The Economy is “Flatlining” - That Doesn't Sound Good.

You’re thinking... heartbeat monitor… right? 

So was I.  Just a few beats left I imagine… rest in peace Economy.

Hang on. 

What if our national economy is not actually a human heart, and when it comes to Gross Domestic Product, “flatlining” is not actually terminal? 

I suppose, to put it another way… economic output has been stable.

Very stable actually.

I'll admit, I am of somewhat optimistic leanings… but there are some genuinely interesting stats out there for those not quite ready to roll over, certainly enough to warrant this quick post.

The Big One: There is Still No Recession

In fact, the UK has not entered recession at any point in the last two years. Let that sink in.

We have a Revised Forecast

Take it from The BoE, today’s figures strongly suggest the downturn will be shorter and shallower than previously thought, as per the Bank of England’s revised forecasts.

UK Continues to Demonstrate the Strongest Economic Recovery of all Major Economies

Most economies have recovered from the pandemic recession by now, the UK's performance has been remarkable in this regard, considering the starting position was a far greater dip than all other major economies.  

UK Has Seen the Highest Performance Vs All G7 Countries For Two Years Running

In 2021 the UK saw 7.6% growth, the highest of all G7 countries.

In 2022, the UK saw 4% growth, the highest of all G7 countries.

FTSE 100 – All Time Highs

Still looking for signs of life? Various market indices have never been stronger, indeed the FTSE 100 reached an all time record of 7,911 yesterday (Feb 09 2023), one of many all-time highs achieved in recent weeks. The FTSE is HOT.

Bad Weather Passes

Overall, these are not the hallmarks of a recession. The storm does not appear to be upon us. Mild weather at worst.

The restraining economic factors are not expected to persist and many have already passed (I.e. premier league events cancelled due to world cup, wholesale energy prices reduced to Jan 2022 prices, retail prices to follow, inflation slowing fast...).

So don't take the doom and gloom to heart.

I’ll continue to beat the drum... right now the data is a lot less scary than the headlines. Opportunity is everywhere and business growth is as accessible today as it ever was.  

Anyway... that's enough hopium for today.

If you're looking for optimism and genuine growth strategies give Sopro a shout.