Ukraine Conflict and Long Term US Policy

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On January 1, 2022, I made a year end post including the alarming development at the time of the Russia-US relationship which unfortunately became even worse than I had feared.

"After the collapse of Soviet Union thirty years ago at the end of the Cold War, Russia eventually recovered its footing as a power player in the international system. President Vladimir Putin is now trying to reclaim some of the lost glory by demanding security guarantee. How the US will respond could have far reaching implication and set the stage for the next few decades for Eastern and Central Europe. The chasm is deep and the threats and brinksmanship have the feel of Cuban missile crisis."

A year since it broke out, the conflict in Ukraine has changed the world. Since the war began, the Biden administration has provided unweaving support and directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine. The abrupt change in position this week about delivering F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is another major turning point for US in this conflict. Looking through historical perspective, however, the US policy around Ukraine has been very reactive rather than being driven by a consistent long term vision.

Ukraine gained independence in 1991 as the Soviet Union dissolved. During the relatively short history since the independence of Ukraine, US has had six presidents in the thirty-two years and each had some notable moments about Ukraine.

President George H W Bush

On August 1, 1991, three weeks before the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine and four months before the December independence referendum in which 92.26% of Ukrainians voted to withdraw from the Soviet Union, President George H. W. Bush reiterated U.S. support for the aspirations of Soviet citizens for freedom and democracy. But he made clear that he backs Gorbachev's efforts to keep the Soviet Union together, and he warned against a single-minded pursuit of independence. In a speech to the packed parliamentary chamber in Kiev, here is what President Bush said:

"Freedom is not the same as independence. Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism. They will not aid those who promote a suicidal nationalism based upon ethnic hatred."

President Bill Clinton

Ukraine retained world third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed. In 1994, At the urge of the United States, Ukraine gave up these nuclear weapons. Ukraine is the only nation at the time which gave up its nuclear arsenal.

The Trilateral Statement was signed by Clinton, then-Russian leader Boris Yeltsin and Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk in January 1994. Russia, the U.S., and the United Kingdom then offered Ukraine a series of security assurances in exchange for eliminating nuclear weapons in the Budapest Memorandum later that year.

President Clinton recently expressed remorse over his role in negotiating the 1994 deal that resulted in Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal, suggesting that Russia never would have invaded its smaller neighbor if it still had nukes. 

President George W. Bush

In June 2001, George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin ended their first face-to-face meeting with an outdoor news conference in Slovenia. "Is this a man that Americans can trust?" Bush was asked by a journalist.

"Yes," Bush replied, "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul, a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”

In 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush did press for Ukraine to be allowed to start the process of joining NATO despite resistance from Russia and skepticism from the alliance’s European members.

President Barack Obama

In February and March 2014, Russia invaded and subsequently annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. 

Barack Obama declared there were no easy answers nor military solutions to the Crimea crisis. “Russia's seizure of Ukraine's Black sea peninsula did not herald a new cold war”, Obama told 2,000 people gathered in an arts centre in central Brussels in the big speech of his four-day trip to Europe.

President Donald J Trump

President Donald Trump coerced Ukraine into providing damaging narratives about 2020 Presidental candidate Joe Biden and giving misinformation relating to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections caused a political scandal in the United States. Trump enlisted surrogates, including his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, to pressure Ukraine to cooperate in supporting conspiracy theories concerning American politics. Trump blocked payment of a congressionally mandated $400 million military aid package to allegedly obtain quid pro quo cooperation from Ukrainian president Zelenskyy.

President Joe Biden

The Biden administration has been a steadfast supporter for Ukraine so far by providing more than $75 billion in military assistance. However, the outcome in Ukraine may ultimately not be decided militarily. The invasion of Ukraine has rapidly returned echoes of a Cold War mentality to the United States though even the outcome of the cold war was not decided on the battle field.

At the same time, as long as NATO or US is not ready to send their own troops, the war is likely going to be a protracted one with no obvious end in sight. Based on the recent history, American public do not always have the stomach to be involved in a protracted war.

In my recent book: The Odyssey of Self-Discovery: On Becoming A Leader, I discuss the need for maintaining long term focus in this short term world. Although the book is mostly exploring leadership in the context of business, the same principle applies for the geopolitical arena as well. Long-term goals will keep organizations energized and people motivated. They will also give direction for leadership decision-making.

Challenge for the US is that long term policy vision often gets interrupted by the four year presidential election cycles. It is hard to predict what the priorities will be for the next president after 2024 election which is only one year away. I do not pretend to have a good answer but I certainly have my concerns.

Meanwhile, best wishes for a happy Memorial Day and let's remember all who made ultimate sacrificed so we could live in freedom.

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