Ukraine: How to Hold the Line
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
// On Our Radar
Burkina Faso
A government-organised national conference in the capital Ouagadougou over the weekend agreed to extend military rule by five years. The military leadership had stated earlier that elections, originally scheduled for July, are not a priority, saying the focus should instead be tackling the persisting jihadist violence in the country. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says the decision is unlikely to make the transitional government any stronger, but it did allow President Ibrahim Traoré to show his increasingly numerous opponents that he retains support.
Gaza
The Israeli military this week expanded its air and ground offensive in the southern city of Rafah. An airstrike near the city Sunday killed at least 45 civilians in a tent camp. Aid agencies have warned that Israel’s operations in Rafah have significantly disrupted already difficult aid deliveries. Meanwhile, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi Wednesday stated the war will continue for at least another seven months. Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein and Tahani Mustafa say prolonging the war is unlikely to bring Israel closer to its aim of eradicating Hamas but it will deepen the humanitarian catastrophe millions of civilians in Gaza already face. The U.S. and other outside powers urgently need to ramp up pressure for a ceasefire.
Sudan
Sudan’s army this week again rejected calls to return to negotiations with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Fighting between the two sides is intensifying, particularly in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, where full-scale combat broke out earlier this month and UN agencies are warning of an increasingly dire humanitarian crisis. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says external powers must redouble their efforts to stop the hostilities and bring the warring parties back to the table. They must also deliver crucial humanitarian aid to those in need, ensure accountability for those who target civilians and sustain pressure on outside actors perpetuating the conflict.
// Faces of Conflict
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Looking for the Missing in Mexico
The disappearance of people in Mexico has a long and harrowing history. Officially 116,000 people have gone missing and have never been recovered since 1952, although the actual number could be far higher. The phenomenon has increased exponentially since 2006, when then newly-inaugurated President Felipe Calderón ratcheted up the country’s “war on drugs”. During his six-year term, over 40,000 people went missing, a figure roughly eighteen times higher than the entire number of people who had disappeared over the previous four decades. Since then, the toll has only got worse.
// Publications
// Podcasts
U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations
In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael Hannah and Steve Pomper are joined by Crisis Group trustee Gérard Araud, a former senior French diplomat, to talk about Europe’s views on the U.S. election and how political volatility in the U.S. might affect transatlantic relations.
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