Ukraine: The Rise and Impact of Drones

Good Saturday afternoon, everyone! As we get closer to Christmas, I’ve been thinking about something important: Why is the physical security industry in the West so slow to adopt new technologies, especially when technologies like Skydio drones, Command and Control systems from Palantir, and computer vision from Scylla AI are readily available on the market? Unlike the private sector, Ukraine, driven by self-defense necessity, has quickly embraced drones and AI tech in its defense strategy. But enough rhetorics—let's dive into the topic.

Strategy is everything

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine, deploying a wide range of advanced weapons. However, Ukraine’s defense, built on modern network-centric warfare, proved to be highly effective. Ukraine used drones for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, and intelligence gathering, while also relying on Western smart weapons like Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers, alongside Soviet-era tanks, artillery, and air defense systems. This strong defense forced Russia to pull back from Northern Ukraine and shift to a longer, slower war.

Ukraine’s strategy focused on using drones and advanced command systems to counter Russia’s superior firepower. Local Ukrainian tech companies played a key role, turning inexpensive drones into powerful weapons. By combining UAVs with advanced AI, GPS navigation, and creative techniques, Ukraine modernized its military, transforming it into a force capable of standing up to Russia. Drones became a central part of operations, providing real-time data and precise strikes, changing the way modern warfare is fought.

The Roots of Drone Operations in Ukraine

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Donbas in 2014, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have made significant progress in developing unmanned systems. At the time, Ukraine had very few drones, mostly outdated Soviet-era models that were no longer effective.

After the conflict began, Ukrainian manufacturers quickly stepped in to develop drones for the military. Most successful projects came from private companies, though progress was slow due to a bureaucratic defense procurement system that limited investment and slowed down production.

For example, the Furia drone, developed in 2014 by Kyiv-based Athlon Avia, was used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard, and Security Service right away. However, it wasn’t until 2019-2020 that it officially passed state tests and was adopted by the military. The same was true for other Ukrainian drones. The PD-1 UAV, developed by Ukrspecsystems in 2014, participated in frontline combat but didn’t get official clearance until 2018. The Skif UAV by Culver Aviation, developed in 2016, started mass production in 2021. The Leleka-100, developed in 2017, was used on the front lines but wasn’t officially adopted until 2022.

These examples reflect a broader trend. From 2014 to 2020, despite the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine struggled to develop and produce drones quickly enough. Their use in the military was inconsistent, lacking the speed and coordination needed for a full-scale effort.

A key moment in Ukraine's development of a strong drone fleet was the acquisition of several Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones in 2018. This purchase showed that Ukraine’s military leaders understood the importance of adding drones to their reconnaissance and strike capabilities, which include surveillance, command, and weapons. It marked a shift toward modern network-centric warfare.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) began using the Bayraktar drones in 2021, with their first major engagement against Russian troops on October 26, 2021. During this mission, a Bayraktar drone targeted and destroyed a Russian artillery system that had been shelling the Ukrainian village of Hranitne, violating the Minsk agreements. This marked a turning point in how drones were used by the UAF.

The Invasion created a necessity for progress

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the development of unmanned systems in the Ukrainian Armed Forces has rapidly accelerated. By the end of 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence reported that the Armed Forces were using around 70 different types of unmanned aerial systems, along with over 20 types of attack drone munitions. According to the Ministry of Strategic Industry, there are currently around 200 drone manufacturers in Ukraine, with most being private companies. In terms of production, various sources estimate that by the end of 2023, up to 50,000 drones were being manufactured in Ukraine each month. The majority of these are First Person View (FPV) drones, which have significantly transformed the battlefield due to their low cost (around $500-700) and high effectiveness.

The emphasis on drones and network-centric warfare in the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) required the development of integrated systems to ensure fast and efficient control cycles. These cycles involve determining enemy target coordinates, transmitting targeting information to command posts, and relaying it to the appropriate strike units. The UAF has used several systems to achieve this, with one of the key tools being the Kropyva tactical command and control system.

Kropyva’s development began as a volunteer effort in 2014 when a group from Army SOS started providing tablets to the military. Since Russia’s invasion, the system has been installed over 10,000 times. A dedicated technical support service has also been set up to continuously improve the software. In 2018, the Logika design bureau contributed Kropyva, along with its source code and a license, to the Armed Forces. This system helps automate various command and control tasks across different levels—such as battalion, company, platoon, and individual vehicle—by combining reconnaissance, control, and firepower into a single, unified information system.

Impressive speed of transformation

Despite the impressive progress already made, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are continuing to adapt to a drone-focused strategy, with plans for even more changes. In 2023, the UAF created special UAV strike companies within combat brigades and as separate units, bringing the total to 60. This allows them to use different types of drones to target and eliminate enemy positions as part of their Network-Centric Warfare approach.

These UAV strike companies are just the beginning of a larger modernization effort within the UAF to keep up with new technologies on the battlefield. Looking ahead, there are plans to set up specialized drone units, particularly FPV (First-Person View) drones, at the battalion level. The UAF is also considering the creation of a separate command for unmanned systems and a specialized branch focused on drone operations.

In early 2024, the UAF launched the Central Directorate of Unmanned Systems within the General Staff. This new body will oversee everything related to drone strategies, structures, and operational needs. This marks a shift from previous scattered efforts to a more organized, top-down approach, which should improve efficiency, budgeting, production, and growth.

What’s even more impressive is how quickly the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to innovate. The Ministry of Digital Transformation launched Brave1, a cluster aimed at driving the development of defense technologies. The main goal of Brave1 is to coordinate the efforts of key government agencies, including the Ministry of Defence, the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Strategic Industry, and the National Security and Defence Council, in advancing defense technologies and production.

Brave1 is also focused on building a strong community of international Defense Tech stakeholders who can share expertise and opportunities. It offers foreign partners access to Ukrainian Defense Innovations, with a smooth process for international collaboration. The initiative fosters partnerships between the public and private sectors and provides support for activities like pitches, hackathons, meetups, grants, and investments. It also helps with the development and testing of both Ukrainian and international advanced technologies, offering investment opportunities in Ukraine's cutting-edge defense tech.

The Ministry of Defence has also set up the Innovation Development Accelerator to speed up the adoption of new weapons and equipment. Thanks to this, the time it takes to integrate new technology has been cut from over two years to just 1.5 months. This has been especially useful for bringing in new drone technologies as more companies enter the market.

Together, the Accelerator and Brave1 are creating a new ecosystem for the development, production, and adoption of military technologies.

Ukraine has set ambitious goals for 2024, aiming to produce 1 million FPV drones, over 10,000 medium-range strike drones, and more than 1,000 long-range drones. The production capacity needed to meet these goals is already in place, ensuring the UAF is well-prepared for the future.

Along with all the advancements in warfare, Ukraine has also opened the door to AI-powered operations. AI has the potential to take network-centric warfare to the next level by further reducing control cycles. It can help quickly find enemy targets using predictive learning and computer vision, determine their coordinates, send that information to the commander, and even make decisions on whether to destroy the target. In modern warfare, it’s crucial to reduce these cycles as much as possible. AI-powered drones can speed up these processes and make military operations more efficient by integrating reconnaissance and strike capabilities. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have already introduced the first AI-powered drone, the Saker Scout20. This drone can independently identify and record the coordinates of enemy vehicles—even those camouflaged—and immediately send that data to the command post for further action.

The integration of AI could also enable the use of drone swarms, where each drone can independently identify, target, and neutralize its assigned target. Given the rapid advancements in military technology, AI has the potential to completely transform the battlefield in the near future.

The role of AI in the drone operations

1. Autonomous Navigation

AI allows drones to navigate challenging environments on their own, without needing constant input from humans. Using advanced algorithms, drones can plan their flight paths, adjust to changes in real-time, and carry out missions independently. For example, drones delivering medical supplies can automatically avoid obstacles and change their routes when necessary.

2. Perception and Sensor Fusion

Drones use a variety of sensors like cameras, LiDAR, and GPS to gather information. AI algorithms process and combine this data to give the drone a clear understanding of its surroundings. This helps the drone recognize objects, detect and track targets, avoid obstacles, and make smart decisions based on what’s happening around it.

3. Real-time Data Analysis

AI enables drones to process large amounts of data while in flight, using computer vision and context to make sense of the surroundings. This real-time analysis is critical for high-risk operations, such as search and rescue missions or suicide drone strikes. By quickly interpreting the data, drones can take action while also ensuring that the operator’s location remains hidden from enemy artillery, preventing the disclosure of their position.

4. Predictive Maintenance

AI-powered predictive maintenance enables drones to monitor their own condition by analyzing sensor data to predict potential issues before they happen. This proactive approach helps reduce downtime and extends the drones' lifespan by fixing problems before they cause failures.

Conclusion

In the context of drone warfare in Ukraine, AI is significantly enhancing combat superiority by enabling drones to operate with greater autonomy, precision, and decision-making abilities. These AI-driven systems allow drones to adapt quickly to changing battlefield conditions, accurately target enemy positions, and support strategic decisions while keeping human operators safe. As drone warfare becomes more advanced, it’s inevitable that physical security providers must transition to using AI and drones to maintain effectiveness in modern security operations. This shift is crucial for staying ahead in an increasingly technology-driven threat landscape.

Wishing you a great weekend and joyful Christmas holidays ahead!