Ukraine's Arms Monitor #43: 21.10 - 27.10.2024

Several reports in this week’s Monitor indicate that Russia maintains a high level of sustained military capability and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China, enabling it to continue its war efforts in Ukraine for several more years. Western countries have thus far failed to significantly curb Russia’s oil revenue or its access to critical components for military production. Meanwhile, Ukraine, despite its successes on the battlefield, urgently needs additional Western military aid, expanded sanctions targeting Moscow’s allies, enhanced intelligence support to defend its citizens. 

Military transfers to Ukraine and military cooperation:

• On October 22, the UK announced donation of an additional £120 million ($155 million) toward the Maritime Capability Coalition and is seeking partners to co-fund delivery of hundreds more maritime drones (aerial and uncrewed boats) to Ukraine, as well as surveillance radars to protect the Grain Corridor.
• UK to provide Ukraine with $2.9 billion military loan, to be repaid with proceeds from frozen Russian assets. The funds are the U.K.'s contribution to the Group of Seven (G7)'s initiative to provide Kyiv with a $50 billion loan by the end of the year. The U.K.'s loan will be allocated to Ukraine's military spendings. Kyiv will be able to invest in key equipment to fight Russia, such as artillery, air defense, and wider equipment support, the statement read.
• On October 21, the United States announced a $400 million aid package using Presidential Drawdown Authority that included munitions for HIMARS; 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition; Mortars; M113 armored vehicle; Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin missiles; AT-4 rockets; small arms, grenades, and training equipment.
• Zelensky announced on Oct. 21 that the U.S. will provide $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, aimed at funding the production of drones to strengthen the country's defense capabilities.
• The European Parliament approved a loan of up to 35 billion euros ($38 billion) for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction that will be repaid using future revenues from Russian central bank assets frozen abroad.
• German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall sent 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine at the end of the third quarter of 2024. The company also announced preparations to open additional defense industrial plants in Ukraine. Rheinmetall expects to begin the production of the Lynx infantry fighting vehicles at the recently operational plant in Ukraine by the end of 2024. The company also reportedly plans to open a joint production facility for air defense systems in Ukraine.
• UK prepares another group of future Ukrainian F-16 pilots, bringing total number of trainees to 200.
• Polish President Duda has ruled out the possibility of supplying newer weapons to Ukraine, including the tanks, self-propelled howitzers, missile launchers and light attack aircraft that his country has ordered from South Korean manufacturers for Poland’s military.
• After months of Ukraine’s pleas for permission to strike deep into Russia with Western weaponry, allies appear to have shifted their focus to helping Ukraine develop its long-range striking capabilities.
• South Korea warned it could consider supplying weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching troops to Russia.
• The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the U.S. Department of Defense examined the use of military aid. The investigation did not identify any significant discrepancies. However, a gap in the regulatory framework was found, which complicates the handling of spare parts from damaged military equipment provided to Ukraine by the U.S. as part of IMA. The inspectors mentioned the possibility of implementing a unified software product that would integrate the accounting of IMA by support services into a single system, updating current information in line with ongoing data updates from the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine (SAG-U).

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Lithuania is investing 10 million euros in the production of the "Palianytsia" missile-drone, following the "Danish model" approach, which involves direct funding of a Ukrainian manufacturer.
• Turkish aircraft manufacturer Baykar will complete the construction of a factory in Ukraine in August 2025. According to Baykar CEO, the construction is 80% complete. In total, Baykar is investing $100 million in three projects in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian military, lawmakers, and experts discussed the creation of a separate branch of Ukraine's Armed Forces dedicated to cyberspace operations.
• Ukraine is developing a new drone that can track and intercept Shahed-type attack drones. Kyiv's new weapon, named "Sting," is a first-person-view (FPV) drone that can chase and neutralize Shahed drones in lieu of conventional air defense systems.

Russia and its allies:

• Russia's excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfill labor demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries - The WP.
• Russia gets armored vehicles from UAE manufacturer. Recent video footage circulating on Russian social media appears to confirm a new shipment of Streit Group-manufactured armored vehicles delivered to Russian forces.
• Turkey has secretly barred exports to Russia of US military-linked hardware after Washington warned Ankara of “consequences” if it did not halt the trade. Turkey’s electronic customs system no longer allows exporters to proceed with sending shipments of the so-called “battlefield goods” to Russia.
• Russia is transporting North Korean troops to front lines in civilian trucks, Ukrainian military intelligence says. North Korea has dispatched pilots who can fly Russian warplanes to join the war in Ukraine.
• NATO and the United States have obtained evidence of North Korean military deployments in Russia.
• Satellite imagery shows signs of a major renovation and expansion at a restricted military facility near Moscow that once housed a Cold War biological weapons program - The WP.

Major developments:

• 'Ukraine is forced to fight against North Korea in Europe,' Zelensky says.
• Russian forces have made significant tactical advances into and around Selydove in recent days, but the Russian military command's apparent focus on securing Selydove has come at the expense of Russian forces' ability to sustain a meaningful offensive drive directly on Pokrovsk — Russia's self-defined operational objective on this sector of the front - ISW.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military.

Other news:

• More than 1,000 civilians have been affected by explosive devices in de-occupied territories since the beginning of Russia's invasion.
• The United States will allocate $35 million in 2025 as part of international support for humanitarian demining in Ukraine.
• France urged India not to help export spare parts for Russian Su-30s, including through Kazakhstan.
• Ukraine’s DELTA situational awareness system coordinated more than 50 drones at NATO exercises.

Opinion and analysis:

• South Korea supplying weapons to Ukraine directly unlikely given legal hurdles, experts say (Chris York for The Kyiv Independent). South Korea would likely have the same concerns the U.S. has in terms of escalating things, they'll be looking over one shoulder in terms of their future relationship with Russia, - experts say adding "There are probably lines that they won't want to cross."
• Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine (Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan for Center for Strategic and International Studies). Maintaining an average of over 23 missiles launched daily over nearly two years demonstrates a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China. An overall intercept rate of 79.8 percent suggests effective defense mechanisms in place, potentially involving advanced missile defense systems capable of neutralizing a significant portion of incoming threats. Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Drones Industry: Investments and Product Innovations (Report by Olena Bilousova, Emir Omelchenko, Maksym Makarchuk, and Tymofiy Mylovanov). This report examines the dynamic growth and evolution of Ukraine’s drone industry, highlighting the significant investments and innovative product developments that have emerged in response to pressing national defense needs. The report features notable case studies of successful Ukrainian startups, such as Swarmer. In addition to investment trends, the report delves into key product development areas within the drone industry, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), naval drones, ground drones, and electronic warfare systems.

Photo from the account of Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces @TDF_UA