The US job growth has beaten expectations in October
As experts predicted, the US job growth increased further in October. The only drawback is that the job growth rate seems to be slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%. This suggests that the previously tight labor market is somewhat loosening. This would allow the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates in smaller hikes, starting in December.
The unemployment report by the Labor Department on Friday portrayed a moderated annual wage growth in the last month. Household employment decreased and the prime age employment-to-population ratio too decreased. The chief economist of FWDBONDS, New York, Christopher Rupkey says, "The foundation of the labor market strength story fades a little when you pull back the tarp and look more closely at the details. The report to us looks like payroll jobs growth will falter in coming months as companies batten down the hatches as the Fed continues to take away the economy's punch."
Nonfarm payroll has increased by 261,000 last month. Also, the figure for September has been revised to observe 315,000 new jobs created. In 2021, the employment growth per month was averaged at 562,000. This year, the number is at 407,000. At the end of September, the labor market was still strong with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person. According to the government, Hurricane Ian which ran through Florida and the Carolinas in September, "had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data for October."
The Federal Reserve increased the interest rates by another 75 basis points on Wednesday. However, the US central bank believes that it is nearing an inflection point. Last month’s hiring increase was led by healthcare ad technical services. Healthcare added 53,000 jobs while professional and technical services contributed 43,000 new jobs to the labor market. The manufacturing sector created 32,000 jobs and the leisure and hospitality sector increased payroll by 35,000. Government payrolls rebounded by 28,000 jobs. The transportation and warehousing industry created 8,000 new jobs while the construction sector barely contributed to increasing payroll.
The job growth has been solid the past month because businesses were replacing workers who left. But we cannot expect the same scenario to continue to play out due to the mounting recession risks. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% after rising 0.3% in September. The YoY increase in wages was 4.7%. There was a 328,000 decline in household employment in September. Around 22,000 workers have quit the labor force. Therefore, the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%. This figure was at 62.3% in September.
The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks and more has also increased. Also, the number of those working part-time for economic reasons decreased to 3.660 million. In addition, the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers dropped. Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab in Washington says that the "Rates of job finding are declining. The hope is that the labor market is merely returning to a more normal pace, rather than sitting dead in the water."