Valmar Capital Update (Issue #63)
On A Serious Note:
Volumes: As it has been all summer long, we’ve been unable to sustain an increases in volume week over week. This past week saw volumes shrink as 7D ADV on spot BTC and ETH fell to $9.9B (-22.3% w/w) and $5.6B (-23.8%). Futures volumes told a similar story with 7D ADV on BTC and ETH futures falling ~22% week over week.
Volatility: With not many obvious catalysts and a lack of excitement in the market, 30D IV for BTC and ETH remain range bound at 54% and 61%, respectively.
BTC and ETH Price: Last week had BTC trading in a 9% range, peaking early in the week at $64,500 only for it to trade down to $59,000. As of this writing, we are currently trading back up to the top end of the range at $64,000. There is some hope that this prolonged consolidation since March is finally coming to an end.
Regulatory and Policy:
Aside from a Ripple cross appeal, no major movement in the SEC/Ripple battle, one that was thought to have been resolved after agreeing to a $125 M fine.
The SEC is now also taking aim at Cumberland DRW, alleging that the market maker is acting as an unregistered securities dealer. Add this to the growing list of deep-pocketed SEC opponents.
And while we are at it, add Crypto.com to the list too as the firm sues the SEC after receiving a Wells notice.
Settlements collected from crypto companies in 2024 exceeds $19 B (thanks, FTX), which is certainly not insignificant. So, the SEC may not exactly be cash-strapped either.
We reported last week on the coming exit of the SEC’s top enforcement official. This week we have Commissioner Matt Uyeda calling the SEC’s approach to crypto a “disaster.” Good to see a Commissioner other than Hester Peirce get more honest about the state of crypto regulations. External pressure on the agency is growing and seems like internal tension could be too.
FTX has been cleared by a judge to begin repayment of $16.5 B in recovered assets to customers. Disgraced FTX executive Ryan Salame also began his 8-year prison sentence with some cheek. Someone let me know if he’s still this funny in 6 months.
Betting odds for former President Trump have skyrocketed to a 10-point lead over Vice President Harris. As a reminder, betting lines are historically substantially more accurate than polls in predicting outcomes.
Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan has again been denied bail in Nigeria. It’s quite surprising and disappointing that there is not more outcry for his release. Bring Tigran home.
Even though it’s a long shot that she loses, will never miss an opportunity to hate on Elizabeth Warren. So will certainly be tuning into her debates with John Deaton. A guy can dream.
Recommended by LinkedIn
Adoption
Other than an early-week pop, muted flows for BTC ETFs. ETH ETFs doing just about nothing.
AIMA and PWC released their 6th Annual Global Hedge Fund Report (must read) and found that 47% of tradition hedge funds have some exposure, a huge jump from 29% just a year ago.
OKX goes live in the UAE with a fully-licensed exchange (VARA) for both retail and institutional clients.
HBO has released a documentary that attempts (and fails) to unveil Satashi Nakomoto’s identity. Whatever, it’s an intriguing story for NPCs.
Quick Take Or Two:
Last week's kickoff for CryptoMondays Wall Street was fantastic. The venue was packed with fantastic folks, energy was high, and Zach Pandl (Head of Research, Grayscale) shared crypto macroeconomic insights including:
Next guest for November 5 will be announce soon, so stay tuned.
Also, speaking of those interest rates (which were just slashed by a whopping 50 bps a few weeks ago), it appears we may go even lower. Odds of a November cut are rising again, which we will keep our eyes on.
On The Lighter Side Of Things:
Perfect Fall weather on East Coast, USA. A boost for morning coffee, extended runs, the spectrum of (responsible) gambling activities. ‘Till we do it again. Live look at Ryan Salame: