The viral spread of propaganda on Facebook in lead up to Sri Lanka's 2024 presidential election
Despite the (deeply problematic) media guidelines issued by the Elections Commissioner, and whatever Meta's promised authorities they will do to address platform trust and safety, as well as electoral integrity, the same kind of coordinated inauthentic behaviours (CIB) studied during 2019's presidential election, and 2020's general election, are widely present on Facebook in the lead up to this month's presidential election.
Just a couple of days ago, I wrote about CIB patterns in relation to the viral spread of fake postal polling results, designed to shape public opinion through totally bogus but professionally produced infographics.
What's more concerning is that hyper-partisan CIB signatures are more widely seen, signalling the instrumentalisation of Facebook to spread propaganda, and outright disinformation. Handicapped by the sunset of Meta's CrowdTangle tool, this CIB, exclusively in Sinhala, entirely escapes algorithmic red-flagging, ensuring that - by default - it goes viral before any sort of fact-check constrain reach or results in the de-platforming of content/accounts.
It's also the case that even when fact-checked, misleading content continues to be platformed without any interstitial. As I noted a couple of days ago,
This speaks also to the limitations of Facebook's own T&S in the Sri Lankan context to ensure that fact-checked material, flagged as fake/disinfo/misleading, is applied to all relevant material. Clearly, this isn't happening, allowing agile, strategic, and sophisticated disinformation entrepreneurs like the admins of ජනපතිට කියන්න to get away with the enduring promotion of falsehoods - with total impunity.
What follows is a rapid capture of partisan content linked to the three leading candidates - Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajitha Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake - using Meta's Content Library Tool to surface CIB signatures linked to the publication of content at or around the same time, on the same day, on a constellation of accounts that appear to be disparate.
None of these posts are in or ever will be in the Facebook Ad Library. The viral spread is ensured through cross-posting, and follows pathologies studied in 2019, and 2020. As I've noted in relation to the farcical interpretation of Sri Lanka's (new) campaign finance law by the Elections Commission,
Mirroring 2019's dark campaign finance signatures, this content is not (and never will be) in Meta's Ad Library because they are published as organic posts - i.e., not as ads or boosted posts. This is a campaign finance economy that is cash based, and now also near impossible to track, and trace comprehensively on Meta (given sunset of CrowdTangle). Given my own interactions with the account/page administrators of leading meme, and gossip pages in the country, the amount of money spent on these promotions, at scale, runs into tens of millions of rupees at a conservative minimum. 2024's figures could potentially be much higher. For the record, dark campaign finance, and propaganda signatures apply to all the leading candidates, including Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, their respective political parties, proxy accounts, and influencer networks.
Key points
The capture of content which follows undergirds several points that can be made regarding the timbre, tone, and thrust of contemporary CIB on Facebook. It's very likely the CIB captured below will increase in seed, and spread the closer we get to election day, and that these hyper-partisan campaigns will also continue without any respect for 'cooling period', as was already the case in 2019.
In short, this is a complex, fluid, hyper-partisan information environment designed to exploit the Sri Lanka's high (online/social) media consumption, and poor media literacy in what after 2022's aragalaya is a very high-stakes election in which partisan rhetoric already frames loss and victory as existential. This online discourse informs a volatile socio-political context that's simultaneously shaped by, and helps shape offline developments. It is a symbiotic dynamic that's generationally beyond Sri Lanka's Elections Commission ability to even remotely grasp, leave aside respond to in a timely manner.
The dynamics studied - though not new to the platform - still escape Facebook's own T&S frameworks, and algorithmic oversight. Meta's sunset of CrowdTangle also presents an unprecedented challenge for researchers to grasp what's going on, and wrong, with the Content Library a risibly poor alternative. What's happening in Sri Lanka is a harbinger of how Meta's product, and platform surfaces will be instrumentalised for IO, disinformation, and propaganda in elections held elsewhere, including in the US.
Fundamentally, one finds the entrenchment, and realisation in Sri Lanka of what Tactical Tech 's Influence Industry Project has presented around the threats to democracy through the datafication of elections - enabled by the use of data as a political asset, for political intelligence, and as political influence. Using these principles, all post-aragalaya elections in Sri Lanka will be Petrie dishes for domestic, and foreign experiments around the manipulation of constituencies, at scale.
Our institutions, laws, frameworks, and policies are very far from fit for purpose to deal with resulting threats, and risks to electoral integrity, and liberal democracy.
Pro-Ranil Wickremesinghe CIB
This post notes "සුද්දි කියන කතාව "ගිලෙන නැවක් වගේ තිබුණු ශ්රී ලංකා ව බේරා ගත්තේ රනිල්. නැව ඇතුළේ ඉන්න අයට නැව ගිලෙන බව පේන්නේ නෑ" පිට ඉන්න අපිට යි පෙනුනේ නැව ගිලෙන වා කියලා. ලංකාවේ මිනිසුන්ට කෙලෙහිගුණ යක් තියෙනවා නම් රනිල් ව ජනාධිපති වශයෙන් පත් කර ගනියි."
I'd translate this as "The story Suddi (meaning a white foreign woman) says 'Ranil saved Sri Lanka, which was like a sinking ship. The people inside the ship couldn't see that it was sinking.' It was us on the outside who saw that the ship was sinking. If the people of Sri Lanka have any gratitude, they will elect Ranil as President."
This post was featured on,
This post noted ""ESTIMATES AS OF TODAY "ROAD TO VICTORY TOUGH BUT WE'LL GET THERE" පොහොට්ටු වේ චන්ද ලක්ෂ 32 ක් එජාප චන්ද 13.5ක් ශ්රි ලංකා චන්ද ලක්ෂ 4ක් උතුරු නැගෙනහිර චන්ද ලක්ෂ 15ක් සජබ චන්ද ලක්ෂ 2ක් පාවෙන චන්ද ලක්ෂ 1ක් අලුත් චන්ද ලක්ෂ 3ක් වශයෙන් සම්පූර්ණ චන්ද ලක්ෂ 70.5 ක් රනිල් ට ලැබෙන බව සමීක්ෂණ යකින් හෙළි වී ඇත. ඉදිරි ප්රචාරක කටයුතු වලදි තවත් වැඩිවේ. රනිල් ට පුළුවන්. රනිල් ට ජනාධිපති වෙන්න පුළුවන්."
I'd translate to English as "ESTIMATES AS OF TODAY "ROAD TO VICTORY TOUGH BUT WE'LL GET THERE" Pohottuwa (flower bud) votes: 3.2 million UNP votes: 1.35 million Sri Lanka votes: 400,000 North and East votes: 1.5 million SJB votes: 200,000 Floating votes: 100,000 New votes: 300,000 A survey has revealed that Ranil is expected to receive a total of 7.05 million votes. This may further increase during upcoming promotional activities. Ranil can do it. Ranil can become President."
This was featured on,
This post noted "දුක් මහන්සියෙන් හදන දේවල් පිට රට අයට විකුණල තමයි අපි ජීවත් වෙන්නෙ. මීට අවුරුදු 2කට කලින් අපි වේලක් කෑවෙත් හරිම අමාරුවෙන්. සංචාරකයො නැතුව අපේ ආදායම බිංදුවටම වැටුන. මේ ජනාධිපති තුමා රට බාරගත්තෙ අපේම වාසනාවට. අද සංචාරකයො එන විදිහට එහෙම කාලයක් තිබ්බද කියලවත් අපිට මතක නෑ. ඒකයි ඇත්තම තත්වෙ. හුඟක් අය කරන්න බෑ කියල කියපු දේ රනිල් ජනාධිපති තුමා කරලම පෙන්නුවා."
I'd translate to English as "We survive by selling things we make with great effort to foreigners. Two years ago, we struggled even to have a single meal. Without tourists, our income dropped to zero. This President took charge of the country for our own good fortune. Today, we can't even remember a time when tourists came in such numbers. That's the real situation. President Ranil has successfully done many things that others said couldn't be done."
This was featured on,
Pro-Sajith Premadasa/SJB CIB
This post by the SJB noted "දැන් වෙන ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයෝ සහ යුඑන්පී ,පොහොට්ටු ඩීල් දේශපාලනය දකිනකොට ,ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයෝ සහ පාක්ශිකයින්ගේ කතා සහ ක්රියාවන් ,හැසීරීම් දකිනකොට ව්මල් වීරවංශ කියන කතාව ඇත්ත වෙන්න පුළුවන් ,ජේවීපී මාලිමාවට දිනන්න බෑ කියලා ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයෝ දන්නවා ,එහෙම දැනගෙන ජේවීපී මාලිමා පාක්ශිකයින්ගේ ඔලුගෙඩි වලට දිනන මානසිකත්වයක් දාලා ඒ ජයග්රහණය සජබ,පොහොට්ටු ,යුඑන්පී අය වංචනිකව උදුරා ගන්න හදනවා කියලා ඔවුන්ව අපරාධ ,ලේ වැගිරීම් ,කාල කෝලාහල ,ම්නීමැරුම් ,ගිනිතැබීම් කරන තැනට මෙහයවනවා ,මේ වීඩියෝ දකිනකොට ඒ කාරණාව ඇත්ත කියලා ඔප්පු වෙනවා,88,89 ජේවීපී නායකයෝ හැංගිලා පාක්ශිකයින් එලියට දාලා කලෙත් ඕකයි ,මැයි 9 ය හවස සහ රෑ කලෙත් ඕකයි , ඇත්ත තේරුම් ගන්න ,ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයෝ කියන ව්දියට නටන්න ලෑස්ති වෙන්න එපා කවුරුත් ,ඒකේ වාසිය යන්නේ අනුප්රාප්තික ජනාධිපතිට සහ ඔහුව තවමත් බලයේ තියාගෙන ඉන්න 124 දෙනාට, ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයෝ කියන ව්දියට කාලකෝලහල,ලේ වැගිරීම් කරන්න ගියොත් වෙන්නේ ජනාධිපතිවරණය තුලින් ජනාධිපති වෙන කෙනාට උනත් ජනාධිපතිකම නොලැබී යාමක් සහ දැඩි නීති ගෙනල්ලා අනුප්රාප්තික ජනාධිපති සහ ඔහුගේ ගෝලයින් 124 ර එකතුවෙලා ඉදිරියටත් රට පාලනය කිරීමක් ,ජේවීපී මාලිමා නායකයොන්ට අවශ්ය වෙලා තියෙන්නේ ඒ දේ කරන්න වෙන්න පුළුවන් ,මොකද ඔවුන් දිගු කාලයක් ඩීල් දේශපාලනයේ යෙදෙන අයවලුන් නිසා ,ඕකයි ඇත්ත ,ඇත්ත තේරුම් ගන්න ,මේ ඩීල් දේශපාලනය අවසන් කරන්න හොදම දේ ඉවසීමෙන් ඉදලා සැප්තැම්බර් 21 උදේම ගිහින් සජිත් ප්රේමදාස මැතිතුමා ජනාධිපති කරන්න කෝටියක් හරි එකට එකතුවෙලා ලොකු ච්න්ද පරතරයක් හැදෙන්න ච්න්දය දෙන එක පමණයි ,එහෙම උනොත් පමණයි රටට වෙන්න යන ලොකු ව්නාශයකින් ඇත්තටම රට බේරෙන්න පුළුවන් ,ඇත්ත තේරුම් ගන්න ,රැවටෙන්න එපා"
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In English, I'd translate this as "When you see the current JVP leaders' and UNP, Pohottuwa's deal politics, and when you see the JVP leaders' and supporters' words, actions, and behaviors, what Wimal Weerawansa says might be true. The JVP leaders know they can't win. Knowing this, they are instilling a winning mentality in the minds of JVP supporters, claiming that SJB, Pohottuwa, and UNP are trying to fraudulently snatch their victory. They are leading their supporters towards crimes, bloodshed, chaos, murders, and arson. When you see these videos, it proves that this is true. This is what JVP leaders did in 88, 89 - hiding while sending their supporters out. This is what they did on the evening and night of May 9th. Understand the truth. Don't be ready to dance to the tune of JVP leaders. The benefit of that goes to the successor President and the 124 people who are still keeping him in power. If you engage in chaos and bloodshed as the JVP leaders say, what will happen is that even the person who becomes President through the presidential election might not get the presidency, and strict laws will be introduced allowing the successor President and his 124 followers to continue ruling the country. This might be what the JVP leaders want, as they have been engaged in deal politics for a long time. That's the truth. Understand the truth. The best thing to end this deal politics is to be patient and go early on September 21st to vote, even if it's just a million people uniting to create a large vote margin to make Sajith Premadasa the President. Only then can the country be truly saved from a great destruction that is about to happen to the country. Understand the truth. Don't be deceived."
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Pro-Anura Kumara Dissanayake/JVP/NPP CIB
This post, published on Anura Kumara Dissanayake's official Facebook page noted "අද (06) පස්වරුවේ පැවති විජයග්රාහී රැලි මාලාවේ පුත්තලම රැලියට එක්වෙමින්..."පොහොසත් රටක් - ලස්සන ජීවිතයක්" උදාකරන නව පුනරුද මඟට රට හරවන 2024 ජනාධිපතිවරණයේ විජයග්රහණය වෙනුවෙන් රොද බැඳි සුවහසක් ජනතාවනි, ඔබට අපේ ප්රණාමය!"
I'd translate this as ""Joining the Puttalam rally this evening (06) as part of the victorious rally series...Thousands of people united for the victory in the 2024 Presidential election, which will steer the country towards a new renaissance path to create 'A Prosperous Country - A Beautiful Life'. We salute you!"
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This post noted "මේ කියන්න යන්නේ ,රනිල් රාජපක්ශලා ඇතුලු හොර නඩේට වෙලා තියෙන හුටපටයක් ගැන . සජිත්ටත් එක්කම . සැප්තැම්බර් 08 වෙනිදා NPP YOUTH එකේ තරුණ ප්රතිපත්ති ප්රකාශනය එලිදවන්න VENUE එක හැටියට තිබ්බ SLECC ශාලාව තව දවස් 04 ක් වගේ කෙටි කාලයක් තියෙද්දී , වැඩේට දෙන්න වෙන්නේ නැහැ කියලා ,සංවිධායකයන්ට කෝල් කරලා කියලා . ඊයා නේද ?? කවුද වැඩේ පිටිපස්සේ ඉන්නේ ? ප්රසන්න රණතුංග කියන්නේ කවුද කියලා ඕගොල්ලන්ට අලුතින් කියන්න ඕනේ නැහැ නේ. බඩ්ඩ ගැන ටොප් එකට අපි හැමෝම දන්නවා නේ.. ලැජ්ජයි නේද ?? ඕකට තමයි කියන්නේ පරාජයේ අඳෝනාව කියලා .. උන් දන්නවා , ලාංකීය තාරුණ්යය ජාතික ජනබලවේගයට කියලා . ඒකියන්නෙ ,අනුරට කියලා . උන් හිතන්නේ , හෝල් එක නොදුන්නා කියන්නේ වැඩේ අල වෙයි කියලා .. ඕක ආරංචි වෙච්චි ගමන් ,සැප්තැම්බර් 8 වැඩේට නොඑන්න හිතාගෙන හිටපු කොල්ලෝ කෙල්ලෝ සෙට් එකත් වැඩේට එන්න සෙට් වෙලා ඉන්නේ . කොල්ලෝ කෙල්ලෝ කියන්නේ , උන් හොරාකාලා ,කප්පම් අරගෙන ,මජර වැඩ කරලා,තව අපේ අනාගතය කන්න හදනවා කියලා ... සැප්තැම්බර් 08 කොල්ලෝ කෙල්ලන්ගේ ගැම්ම බලන්න , පුළුවන් නම් එන්න ප්රසන්න ඒ පැත්තට .... රට දිනවන MATCH එකේ PLAYERS අපි"
I'd translate as "This is about a predicament faced by the gang of thieves including Ranil, Rajapaksas, and even Sajith. On September 8th, the NPP YOUTH was supposed to unveil their youth policy statement at the SLECC hall, which was the planned VENUE. But with only about 4 days left, the organizers were called and told that the venue wouldn't be available for the event. Isn't that something? Who's behind this? You don't need to be reminded who Prasanna Ranatunga is. We all know about Badda very well, don't we? Isn't it shameful? This is what's called the lament of defeat. They know that the Sri Lankan youth are with the National People's Power, which means with Anura. They think that by not giving the hall, the event will fail. As soon as this news spread, even the boys and girls who weren't planning to come on September 8th are now getting ready to attend. These young people are saying that they (the opposition) have stolen, taken bribes, done dirty work, and are now trying to eat away our future too... If you can, Prasanna, come to that side on September 8th to see the enthusiasm of the boys and girls.... We are the PLAYERS of the MATCH that will win the country."
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This post noted "සැප්තැම්බර් 21 මාලිමාව ඉදිරියේ ඔබේ ඡන්දය ලකුණු කරලා ඔබේ සමාජ යුතුකම ඉටු කරන්න".
Translate, this meant "Cast your vote in front of the 'Malimawa' on September 21 and fulfill your social duty."
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This post features a long list of individuals, with figures (unverified, and without any credible source) presented as sums of money they had gained through corruption or graft. The first sentence noted "සුළු හෝ බුද්ධියක් තිබේ නම් උත්තරය මාලිමාව පමණයි". I'd translate this as "Even if you just have a little intelligence, the only answer is Malimawa."
This post was featured on 40 Facebook accounts including,
Disinformation targeting the NPP
This post noted ""මාලිමාව ආවාම ආමි පොලිස් ඔක්කොටම ගහන්න හදන හමුදාවෙන් පැන්නූ පුද්ගලයාගේ තෝම්බුව මෙන්න…" (Which can be translated as "When the JVP/NPP comes, here's the record of the person who deserted the army and is now planning to attack all army and police personnel...")
On Facebook, this post carried a link to a well-known pink-slime Sinhala news website. This post (also in Sinhala) describes a former military personnel who has recently released a video threatening violence against the army and police, stating that he's with the NPP. It then goes on to provide detailed personal information about this individual, including their full name, date of birth, national ID number, and address. The post outlines their military service history, including the date they joined and left the service. It also details several allegations of misconduct against this person, including fraudulent activities while in service, such as importing vehicles illegally and misappropriating funds from civilians. The post mentions legal actions taken against them, including arrests and ongoing court cases.
None of this is verified, credible, or accurately sourced.
Parenthetically, and in a darkly funny twist, the same pink-slime website carries another article featuring a letter attributed to NPP's Akalanka Ukwatta from the party's own election monitoring unit suggesting they have complained to the Elections Commissions about this content, and a related video. So the same page actively featuring, and promoting disinformation against the NPP is also debunking the content by featuring the NPP's response.
You really can't make this shit up.
The post linking to the disinformation was shared on,