Voodoo and You

I woke up one day this week and realized, I am an old man. It’s not much fun, sorry. The saying that the 70’s are the new 60’s and 60 is the new 50 etc. in an infinite regressing time series means I am a baby. Indeed, I sleep like one, waking up crying about the state of my country every few hours. The saying “age is just a number” is true but the number is high, damn it. I would rather have a different number. 30 sounds Ok.

I am either 93 or 14

But what really resonates with me is “you are as old as you feel.” Well, by that cliché, I feel either 93 or 14, the two years where government interventions created the worst depression and recession, respectively. For the 2008 crisis we can thank Bill Clinton for his reckless Community Reinvestment Act that pushed bankers to abandon caution in lending, but it was the quantitative easing/bail outs by Bush and Obama that turned the inevitable crash into a miserable decade. Then it was the 1929 market crash that turned into almost two decades of misery by Hoover and Roosevelt. No, Roosevelt’s New Deal didn’t end the depression. If you would like an explanation, read this short essay.  You don’t have to like it, but it may give you a better understanding of what’s to come, which may be useful when you make recommendations to executives. Or, you can just trust me- after all, I am old, and the only benefit of age is being skeptical of quick solutions that never ask: Did it work? The answer is: No, it made it worse.

And these days, I am watching history repeating.

I am definitely uneducated

When it comes to comments on MSN pieces in my feed, there are the single-issue zealots who just hate Trump and in that, they carelessly leave their future in the capable hands of the IRB. IRB- which stands for the Inflation Reduction Act, a most Orwellian use of terminology, is truly an International Republican Brotherhood act because after it fails miserably, everyone but the nonbinary voters will vote Republicans.

It’s easy to understand those who hate Trump. He has become a cartoon figure – way more clownish than scary- but the haters ignore the alternative which is voodoo economics designed and pushed by highly educated people who are all but certain to make history repeat. The overwhelming majority of those who Just Hate Trump look down on the other 80 million voters as “uneducated.” Sure, surveys show the Republicans (and Trump) appeal way more to people without advanced degrees. Yet what I find hilarious is that “educated” people believe in magic, or what the famed economist – by no means a Trump follower- Mohammad El-Arian calls fairytale economics.

Well, for some of those “educated” people magic exists as their debt magically disappeared. But for most, voodoo economics foretells a nasty surprise.

Let’s retire the word educated  

Believing the IRB reduces inflation puts the term “educated” into disrepute. First, the notion of making up the shortfall in revenues compared with the enormous spending by squeezing corporate is a delusion of the psilocybin sort. Just ask yourself who is in a better position to shift profit around and find tax shelters with the help of the Big 4 accounting armies who are so much smarter than even the 87,000 additional tax collectors with their liberal arts degrees. How much tax did Apple eventually pay on the billions it stashed in Ireland after it was revealed and reviled? Google it. Or even better, Google how much Google pays in taxes in the US. And if you still believe that will change, put down that drink and go for rehab.

How much did Apple pay in tax on the cash it stashed in Ireland? Google it. Or Google Google's tax...

Thus, those who believe the taxmen and taxwomen and taxnonbinary are only coming for the rich are educated in Disneyland.  

But it’s all for a good cause, right?

I realize those educated in Fine Arts, Humanities, French Lit., social work, gender, and environmental studies etc., say to themselves: Well, so be it. It’s for a good cause. Alas, it’s not. Good intentions and good results are two very different creatures. The results of sticking to a failing energy program can be seen clearly in Germany. But of course, unless you majored in German Lit maybe you don’t realize the connection between (hot air) wind and solar policies and your rising utility (and all other energy-dependent) bills. Or maybe you work remotely and say, oh, well, I don’t need much gas, I have a Tesla. Ooops, Tesla is a no-no since Musk is uneducated. So you have a Rivera. Or not since it is going bust. Well, you’ll just bike to the store. But inflation in bike prices is amazingly more than 3 times Biden’s official 8.5% inflation.  

Good intentions and good results are two very different creatures.

There is no recession, just the Opposite of an Upturn.

As to your job, recessions have a funny way of bringing a reality check even to the sacred knowledge workers. Luckily there is no recession because Biden said there isn’t, and everything is peachy except your 401K.

Unemployment is at an all-time low we are told, so if you want to work as a hotel cleaning person, sorry, hospitality sanitation engineer, the job is yours.  

But then the Fed will hike rates even faster, and we may need to find a new word to replace the anti-democratic “recession.” How about “slowing down of demand for your company’s products and services that results in layoffs which slow demand further which results is, oh, I know, I know- let’s call it the opposite of an upturn?” Thank god we have the Inflation Redacting Act. That is not a typo, of course. If we also redact the word inflation from our discourse, people will vote on other issues such as how much they hate Trump.

Now tell me if “educated” people's belief that pouring gasoline on the inflation fire will actually reduce the fire is a sign of being educated. Do they teach Economics 101 in liberal colleges right after the class of Shame on you White People (SoyWP 101) or the advanced class, We are all Fluid (WaaF 201)? How about Logic- if A then B, if B then C, if C then Part D?

Prediction you can’t take to your bank

Here is a prediction, and you can come back in a few years and throw it in my even older face: the Inflation Reduction Bill will cause a mess that will be left to the next administration or next generation to clear. Many millennials and Gen Z will be around carrying signs “looking for a job” or “hungry, can you spare a $1,000?” or “Speaking Chinese, will work.” Of course, I am exaggerating. Gen Z doesn’t carry signs, they Tik Tok.

Alternative perspective: I believe many “uneducated” have more common sense in their pinky than some of the “educated people.” I don’t know your standing on burning social issues, but I believe I know your standing on having a job, providing for your family, and giving your kids a reasonable future. Or maybe you believe in magic, then vote for your favorite cause-de-jour and forget about a silly paycheck.