War and Peace: A Diary

𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 4𝐭𝐡 -

France’s European Affairs Minister hit the airwaves this weekend claiming that last summer’s great bedbug scare was the result of a Russian disinformation campaign. Jean-Noel Barrot told TF1 that Russia was responsible for ‘amplifying’ a story that included allegations that Ukrainian refugees were responsible for the importation of the insects into France.If anyone was wondering why the world is today afflicted with so many conspiracy theories, we now have an explanation: it’s Russia. That, of course, might just be another conspiracy theory. Berlin is also accusing Russia of disinformation mischief after of a recording between German military officials was played on Russian media channels. That looks to be a case of old-fashioned espionage rather than disinformation - the German officers really do seem to be discussing not sending sophisticated hardware to Ukraine. That chimes with Chancellor Scholz’s statement about giving Germany’s version of the Storm Shadow cruise missile to Kyiv.Scholz claimed that Germany couldn’t take the same risks as France and the UK: both countries, according to the German leader, have soldiers on the ground in Ukraine giving technical advice on how to fire Storm Shadows. It’s hard to see that public statement as anything other than an abuse of intelligence. It’s also hard to see Europe stepping up to fill the vacuum left by the rise of US isolationism. Scholz’s timidity is the latest piece of evidence that suggests Europe’s biggest economy still doesn’t get it: the days of turning cheap Russian oil and gas into fancy cars really are over.The last time Europe was asked to step up was back in 1991 as the former Yugoslavia broke up. ‘Europe’s time has come’ said Luxembourg’s foreign minister, whose name has not gone down in history. He was right in one sense but wrong in one very critical respect: Europe’s time came and went.

𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 5𝐭𝐡 -

Iran has reportedly asked Sudan if it can establish a permanent naval base on the Red Sea coast. The Institute for the Study of War cites a Wall St Journal story which says Iran has offered a helicopter carrying warship in exchange for a presence in Sudan. The ISW reckons Iran is seeking to up the threat level to shipping in the region. Iran is thought to be a major supplier of drones to Sudan and is known to have sought naval facilities there for some time. The foreign ministries of both countries denied the story.

Meanwhile, a Houthi missile, almost certainly Iranian-made, struck yet another ship in the Gulf of Aden.2024 has been called ‘The Year of the Vote’, with perhaps as many as two billion people going to the polls.

Over the next two years, around a one third of the world’s population will vote in one kind of election or another. The most predictable of those exercises in democracy will take place in a few weeks on St Patrick’s day when Vladimir Putin will be re-elected as President of Russia. A former Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, yesterday gave an address that essentially repeated all of Putin’s previous ramblings about history and Russia’s place in the world. ‘Ukraine is Russia’ was a core message, once again denying the existence of a Ukrainian people or language.Russia’s territorial ambition remains unchanged: the only bits of Ukraine it doesn’t deem to be Russian seem to belong to ex-Soviet bloc countries like Hungary.

At least Medvedev didn’t repeat his usual threats to use nuclear weapons against major Western cities. Medvedev once kept the Presidential seat warm for a while.  Putin uncharacteristically obeyed the Russian constitution (the bit about term limits). That constitution was then changed.

𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 6𝐭𝐡 -

The ‘war on drugs’ first appeared in popular usage in 1971, a battle declared by then President Richard Nixon. It was a fight widely thought to have been lost before it started. In the latest iteration of that war, roughly six million Americans are said to be hooked on opioids, a third of a million US citizens have died of overdoses over the past ten years for which we have data, and 75,000 have perished in the last year. Synthetic opioids are the current most lethal drug of choice. One dose of Fentanyl can lead to death. Whereas cocaine and cannabis are bulky to transport, The Economist reckons that three lorries can carry enough Fentanyl to supply American demands for a year.

Drug deaths have contributed to an abrupt reversal in the trend increase in American longevity.The US government spends around $45 billion every year on the war on drugs. Old fashioned policing and education are the two biggest costs. The only small victory is a recent slowing in the death rate. One of the biggest battles is with the Chinese government over the supply of ‘precursor’ chemicals to Mexican drug cartels.

The other big fight is with those cartels.A cynic - or conspiracy theorist - might ask about the incentives facing the Chinese authorities. An obvious way to mess with America is to get millions of its citizens hooked on drugs that often kill them.If that is too much of a conspiracy theory, consider this: last year, France was gripped by an epidemic of bed bugs. Stories about infected hotels, homes and the Paris metro went viral. It turns out that a few pictures and videos posted on the usual social media platforms were enough to send France into a neurotic frenzy. It turns out that most of those pictures were planted by Russian intelligence agencies. Mischief comes in many forms

𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 7𝐭𝐡 -

The Houthis have managed to kill and injure a number of sailors on board a dry bulk carrier in the Gulf of Aden. These are the first fatalities since the campaign against shipping began last November. The Houthis most consequential attack prior to this week was the sinking of another cargo ship, The Rubymar. As that carrier went down, its anchor dragged across the sea bed, cutting three telecommunication cables. That has disrupted internet traffic in the region, as well as links between Europe and Asia. It has long been recognised that undersea cables are largely unprotected and offer a tempting target for terrorists and hostile governments.

Other undersea vulnerabilities include gas and electricity pipelines and connectors. The mystery of the 2022 Nordstream pipeline explosion in the Baltic Sea has never been explained.When those telecommunication cables were first cut there were unsubstantiated report that the Houthi’s had somehow to blame, a claim which they denied. US National Security spokesman John Kirby yesterday confirmed the Rubymar’s dragging anchor was to blame.Normally, ships carry detailed maps of where the cables are laid and avoid dropping anchor anywhere near the vital telecommunications infrastructure.

Bloomberg reports that there are at least a dozen major cables running through the Red Sea, with more planned as internet traffic continues to build. The data that would have been carried by the three severed cables has now been successfully transferred to other links.

North Korea’s state news agency, not usually known for its reliability, is reporting that Vladimir Putin will shortly pay a visit to Pyongyang. If true, that’s the first such trip made by Putin in over two decades. North Korea has become an important supplier of weapons to Russia - over 10,000 containers shipped so far, according to The Economist. Kim Jong Un has long been a sabre rattler but his rhetoric has stepped up several notches in recent weeks, making more explicit threats against South Korea in particular.

𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 8𝐭𝐡 -

The annual budget circus came to the U.K. this week, with all of the usual focus on trivial short term tweaks to policy and little attention paid to anything resembling fiscal strategy. Ireland will begin its very similar budget theatrics soon, with both countries now firmly in pre-election mode. At least both countries don’t have to factor in the costs of war. Israel is due a budget very soon, an emergency one because of  spiralling spending necessary for the military.

The Economist reckons that the measures likely to be adopted by Netanyahu’s fractious coalition will include extra money for West Bank settlers and for teenagers to study the Torah rather than science. Such are the needs of the fundamentalists in that coalition.

Even more seriously, it is possible that Netanyahu will break Israel’s implicit social contract which promises a generous welfare state alongside a strong military. A deep and wide social safety net has roots in Israel’s socialist past. The costs of war are piling up and could result in deep cuts to non-military spending.Israel’s army is burning through cash. In the final quarter of the year, extra spending, in addition to the normal run rate, amounted to 2% of GDP. Rating agencies have downgraded Israel’s debt for the first time.The Lithuanian intelligence services yesterday published its assessment of the Russian threat.

According to that report, Russia is capable of sustaining the war in Ukraine for the foreseeable future and is also getting readily for a confrontation, in the longer term, with NATO. The Institute for the Study of War says Russia is deploying troops and equipment along its North Western frontier, although with increasing emphasis on Naval and Air power, given the needs to sustain the ground war in Ukraine.

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