We hit something big this May and it’s not what you think

Why the recent flip of renewables topping coal is not just an anomaly but a trend that would be a pattern and a defining feature of not just near future but our shared future.  

What’s Burning? 

My home state of Montana is rich in natural resources, including “Black Gold” – coal which is mined for electricity generation in Montana and for export markets. I have watched never ending trainloads full of coal in a relentless march out of the Powder River Basin which supplies about 40 percent of the coal in the U.S. 

Since the territorial days in the late 1800’s, coal has been a part of the Montana way of life. Coal has contributed to the economy of Montana, providing much-needed jobs and tax revenues. But that may now become a thing of the past. 

As someone who has dedicated his career to the clean-energy transition, I’d like to share an insider view on this tectonic-shift which may well be a defining feature of our age- just like coal was for the industrial revolution and oil was for 20th century America.   

In Black & White 

There was a lot of noise recently and much was said and written about renewables taking the top spot for energy generation. And it came from all quarters and regions and not just confined to the US borders- it makes sense then, to take a step back and analyze it a bit more and put it in perspective.  

The news came in flashes and was everywhere- In April, more power was generated from renewables like wind and solar than coal for the first time in US history and that too for 47 days straight.  Let me break it down in black & white for you- this figure from EIA shows the annual production and you can see how the white patches in 2020 have outpaced the black blocks of coal- it’s unbelievable the change and its unbridled  pace.  

And the figure could be even bigger because it does not include the power generated by rooftop solar panels which is a big chunk.  

Source: EIA

No Longer a blip 

The current situation with the pandemic- though bleak and depressing has come up with some positive news as well. With most of the country in lockdown and economic activity declining, the EIA estimates that U.S. demand for electric power will fall by 5% in 2020, and though this may look like an anomaly it represents a trend and a defining pattern of our age.  The only thing that the pandemic has done is to  speed up the demise of coal which has long been coming-  

The average coal plant in the U.S. is 40 years old, and these aging, inefficient plants are finding it increasingly difficult to compete against ever-cheaper renewable energy sources.  

In contrast, renewables are still expected to grow by 11%. The reason behind this is partly due to how energy is dispatched to the grid. Because of cheaper costs, renewables are used first if available, followed by nuclear power, natural gas, and then finally coal. 

And the trend is not just limited to the US, it’s coming from other countries irrespective of their developing status- the UK just recorded its longest period of renewables topping coal for straight 35 days- a feat that has not been achieved since the Industrial Revolution more than 230 years ago! China is in a league of its own and though coal is still very much the major source of its power, that figure changing fast. India too has shown a lot of heft and has ambitious targets for its solar generation. 

What’s Next ? 

• The decline of thermal energy is not just a trend, but a veritable certainty- the pandemic has forced us to take climate-change seriously perhaps for the first time 
• Solar energy with its focus on energy-autonomy for individuals and businesses would pick up speed- as more people realise the importance of individual responsibility 
• The economics of renewables have now been proven globally and there is no turning back on it, its sooner than we anticipated 
• The coal subsidies will eventually go- but the government needs to re-define its strategy for communities dependent on coal and make them a part of clean-energy transition  
• It is a milestone that seemed all but unthinkable a decade ago, when coal was so dominant that it provided nearly half the nation’s electricity 
• The EIA forecasts that America’s emissions will fall by another 11% this year, which is the largest drop in the last 70 years 
• America has an opportunity to lead the climate change initiatives- by not only cutting back on coal but promoting and incorporating renewables as the baseload of our energy-consumption- a feat that felt improbable by even staunch optimists 

Credit: The Kintigh Generating Station in Somerset, N.Y., the state’s last coal-burning plant, just before it was shut down in March. Photo Credit: Libby March for NY times  

Not So Long Road Ahead

Though the present situation is incomparable to anything we have witnessed as a country and is extremely difficult to navigate and make sense of- this pandemic has also forced us to reflect and redefine our ways- and the coal mines of Montana may be a thing of past in less than a decade- it would be a closing of a chapter and starting of new greener and more prosperous future for our future generations. 

#energytransition #decarbonisation #renewableenergy #solarenergy #solarpv #technology