Weathering The Crisis

Exhausted and resigned, my gaze turns upward as if an answer could be found there. No matter how many scenarios I run through in my head, there is no clear path and no simple solutions. At that very point, I realize all at once that I am neither a military strategist nor a geopolitical expert. I go through grief and anger, like many others who look helplessly at this senseless war.

At the beginning of any analysis, one expects that the most probable path will quickly become visible - one just needs to know a little more about the situation and the circumstances. Yet, the deeper you dig, the more you come to the realization: countless paths are possible, perfect answers impossible.

Order only in retrospect

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, analyses have been pouring in. Whether experts from the fields of geopolitics, the military, energy or finance, everyone is poking around in uncertainty and looking for the right path into the future.

In the history books, events unfold in an all too orderly fashion - with a knowing look back. Assassination of an heir to the throne, attack on a country, precise start of the great world wars. However, this clarity is a fiction. Living through the times was far more chaotic and by no means a linear development.

Former financial specialist, now author and thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes about this in his book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”

<< ...subsequent narratives connecting events are merely “good sounding stories”. >>

Focus on the essentials

As Chief Investment Officer and thus ultimately responsible for Bank Gutmann's investments, my top priority is to get our customers' portfolios through this crisis in good shape. To do this, my team and I do not have to foresee the development of the war and all the geopolitical variants.

It is much more important to be prepared for a broad spectrum of development paths. The entire Gutmann Chief Investment Office is just that. In addition, we hold regular discussions in various formats, review our position, and constantly challenge opinions that have already been formed.

Ask the right questions

Take equities, for example: Business model after business model has to be put to the test repeatedly in a changing world. Are the competitive advantages as strong as we thought? Are the growth prospects still intact? Can the company implement price increases for its goods and services in the market? This will be particularly important in an inflationary world.

Successful entrepreneurs all over the world have one thing in common: they accept every challenge and face reality; they adapt to new circumstances and make the decisions today for a profitable future.

We want to participate in this future for you, dear customers. We do not invest in the stock market in general; we invest in carefully selected, successful companies. In turbulent times, we thus manage your portfolio with a steady hand.