As Donald Trump prepares to take office, global dynamics are at a crossroads. His anticipated policies signal significant shifts in trade, politics, and economic strategy, but the world is already moving. For global leaders, understanding these developments is critical to decode how they could intersect with Trump’s agenda and shape the global landscape.
Here is a snapshot of major global policy developments ahead of Trump's inauguration:
- North America – A tenuous balance in Canada and Mexico: Justin Trudeau’s resignation exposes deep divisions in Canada’s political and economic structure, which risks undermining its ability to negotiate effectively with a protectionist U.S. administration. For Mexico, looming renegotiations on trade agreements due in 2026 and border policies could disrupt supply chains critical to both economies. These developments are pivotal, as they threaten North America’s competitiveness as a bloc and its unity in trade and security, with wide-ranging effects on industries and cross-border ties.
- Europe and the UK – Moves to strengthen global positioning: European leaders keep warning about the need for Europe to protect its leadership by prioritizing green innovation, industrial resilience, and the integrity of the single market. These priorities not only seek to counter risks, but also to position Europe as a key player. Additionally, the UK's role adds a new angle as both parts are rebuilding their institutional and commercial relationships.
- Asia- Pacific – Strategic shifts amid uncertainty: The Asia-Pacific region is facing critical transformations. As traditionally stable players like South Korea grapple with institutional turmoil, China's aggressive trade and investment policies redefine the rules of the game. Japan and ASEAN countries are recalibrating their trade and security policies in the face of potential trade and defense tensions. As an example, just before the end of the year, Japan approved a record $55.1 billion in defense spending for fiscal year 2025, with the cabinet of the Prime Minister anticipating “the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II.” Ultimately, the region’s resilience will depend on its ability to transform competition into a driver of collective strength and innovation.
- Africa and Middle East – Bridging instability and global influence: In Africa, continental frameworks like the African Union and leadership roles in global platforms like the G20 -with South Africa holding its rotating presidency this year- highlight the continent’s push for greater influence. Meanwhile, the Middle East continues to face great security tensions and conflicts, paired with regional rivalries, with Iran and Saudi Arabia competing for dominance.
- Latin America – Venezuela’s turmoil shapes a complex regional agenda: Nicolás Maduro’s contentious inauguration for a third term is testing the cohesion of Latin-American frameworks, with divisions among nations on how to respond. Brazil and Colombia’s conflicting approaches to Maduro’s legitimacy could weaken regional cooperation, creating an environment ripe for external powers to exert influence. The situation also undermines Latin America’s economic integration and diplomatic unity, diminishing the region’s ability to negotiate effectively and assert its place on the global stage. With Trump’s administration poised to recalibrate U.S.-Latin America relations, business leaders in the region face heightened challenges in managing internal divisions while navigating new political pressures and economic shifts.
