A Week in #Intelligence - W9 - 2023 - #ExMergere - #OSINT #Analysis #AI #Strategic #Cyber #Criminal #Services
Pierre Memheld
AI/Data for Human Analysts: methods, solutions, implementation, conditions, human ressources/capacities - @exmergere, @beta_economics & @EDACournot.
– Selon nos informations, une publication semestrielle baptisée "Études françaises de renseignement et de cyber" sera lancée en septembre et regroupera la plupart des chercheurs de la spécialité. L’objectif de ce projet initié par Floran Vadillo, enseignant à Sciences Po: permettre à la France de combler son retard par rapport aux autres pays.
• Studies
– In 2018, I made a blog post about the different archive locations where articles from CIA’s internal ‘Studies in Intelligence’ journal can be found. Published since 1955, the declassified articles provide a wealth of material for the intelligence studies community, as well as interesting perspectives for security and foreign policy researchers. You can find some background information about the journal from this New Yorker piece.
- For decades, the Central Intelligence Agency has cultivated its appeal as an organization shrouded in secrecy, engaged in cutting edge tech and no-holds-barred espionage in defense of the US. It’s an image that sells in Hollywood. The CIA also assisted in the making of some movies about some real life operations. But as the agency ages, it continues to strive to stay up to date. In 2022, when the CIA turned 75, the agency launched operation:podcast. Brooke speaks with David Shamus McCarthy, author of Selling the CIA: Public Relations and the Culture of Secrecy, about the latest venture for the agency and the CIA's long history of public relations initiatives.
– Russia’s renewed invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022 marked the start of Europe’s deadliest armed conflict in decades. After a steady buildup of military forces along Ukraine’s borders since 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with Russian ground forces attacking from multiple directions.
– The Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers takes great pleasure in inviting you to participate in the 32nd AIPIO Intelligence Conference and Exhibition, Intelligence 2023, at Hilton Adelaide on 16–18 August 2023.
- The Center for Intelligence Research Analysis and Training (CIRAT) at Mercyhurst University is a hub of activity with students working on intelligence and cyber security projects for dozens of clients spanning government and private industry. Amid this nucleus of intensive intelligence exploration, a group of students fixates on CIRAT’s newest piece of equipment: the AirNav Radarbox, which offers worldwide tracking of commercial, military, and general aviation flights.
– The following is a transcript of an interview with CIA director William Burns that aired on "Face the Nation" on Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023.
• Artificial
- The Central Intelligence Agency is using artificial intelligence and machine learning to parse through data and alert officials to global developments, but one of the agency’s top analysts doesn’t see ChatGPT or any other bots giving the president’s daily brief anytime soon.
- Si vous avez suivi la série d’articles intitulée « Ce que ChatGPT fait à la veille« , il ne vous aura pas échappé que je reviens à plusieurs reprises sur ce que les grands modèles de langage (ou LLM’s) impliquent quant au traitement et à l’analyse de corpus documentaires.
- The nature of crime is continually evolving, and as nefarious actors take advantage of emerging trends across the economic, political, environmental, social and technological landscapes the threats they pose become augmented, and emphasizes the need to think strategically and anticipate for longer-term drivers of change and conceivable future scenarios. A foresight project entitled the “Future of Crime” was undertaken to present changes across the domain of crime and illustrate how these shifts could alter our crime landscape and impact defence and security. The project is used as a case study to demonstrate the need to apply strategic foresight methodologies on different levels of decision-making from strategic to tactical. This chapter explores the ability for foresight methodology to inform strategic planning and operational capabilities in the domain of defence and security.
– This study improves the understanding of trust in human-AI teams by investigating the relationship of AI teammate ethicality on individual outcomes of trust (i.e., monitoring, confidence, fear) in AI teammates and human teammates over time. Specifically, a synthetic task environment was built to support a three-person team with two human teammates and one AI teammate (simulated by a confederate). The AI teammate performed either an ethical or unethical action in three missions, and measures of trust in the human and AI teammate were taken after each mission. Results from the study revealed that unethical actions by the AT had a significant effect on nearly all of the outcomes of trust measured and that levels of trust were dynamic over time for both the AI and human teammate, with the AI teammate recovering trust in Mission 1 levels by Mission 3. AI ethicality was mostly unrelated to participants' trust in their fellow human teammates but did decrease perceptions of fear, paranoia, and skepticism in them, and trust in the human and AI teammate was not significantly related to individual performance outcomes, which both diverge from previous trust research in human-AI teams utilizing competency-based trust violations.
• Strategic
– Initial U.S. intelligence suggesting that China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine was gleaned from Russian government officials, according to one current and one former U.S. official familiar with the intelligence.
– Russia is likely offering Iran help with its advanced missile program in exchange for military aid for its war in Ukraine, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency said on Sunday.
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered more than 1,000 companies to curtail their operations in the world’s 11th biggest economy, revealing an imperative for global firms to bolster their ability to anticipate geopolitical risk and build resilience.
– La guerre en Ukraine et les dépendances à la Chine révèlent les besoins criants des pays occidentaux en minerai rare stratégique, tout particulièrement pour leurs industries de souveraineté. Chacun cherche à connaître son degré de fragilité en mobilisant toujours plus les outils du renseignement.
– For years, the US intelligence community has dedicated resources to countering the threat of terrorism. Pivoting to Beijing won't be easy.
• Collection
- Today’s advertising technology, generating vast amounts of data that includes our identity, locations, and connections, has immense intelligence potential but also poses a threat from adversaries. The Intelligence Community can help develop countermeasures.
– The Chinese state is suspected of impersonating two senior foreign journalists in order to spy on activists involved in organising rare anti-lockdown protests last year.
– Senior Biden administration officials urged Congress to renew a warrantless surveillance program that expires later this year, calling it a “key intelligence authority.”
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– The head of the _Cyber_security and Infrastructure Security Agency warned Monday of potentially dire consequences if technology manufacturers fail to bolster the security of their products, in a blistering speech about the dangers posed in _cyber_space by China.
- In this episode of the Technology and Security (TS) podcast, Jessica Hunter from the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) joins Dr Miah Hammond-Errey to talk about emerging technologies and signals intelligence. They cover ASD’s role in Australian intelligence, REDSPICE, offensive and defensive operations and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, technology as statecraft and cyber__crime. They also discuss alliances, the security of everyday technology, the Optus and Medibank hacks, international standards, and the value of creativity and vulnerability for leadership in intelligence.
– Avatars are not used just to push out disinformation. A massive leak of 500,000 documents reveals how fake online accounts are also used to spy on journalists and activists
– Analyze and explore the relationships between beneficial owners, sanctions and politicians with OpenScreening, powered by OpenSanctions KYB data.
- The nature of crime is continually evolving, and as nefarious actors take advantage of emerging trends across the economic, political, environmental, social and technological landscapes the threats they pose become augmented, and emphasizes the need to think strategically and anticipate for longer-term drivers of change and conceivable future scenarios. A foresight project entitled the “Future of Crime” was undertaken to present changes across the domain of crime and illustrate how these shifts could alter our crime landscape and impact defence and security. The project is used as a case study to demonstrate the need to apply strategic foresight methodologies on different levels of decision-making from strategic to tactical. This chapter explores the ability for foresight methodology to inform strategic planning and operational capabilities in the domain of defence and security.
• Criminal / Terrorism
– MI5 is expected to face pressure to explain the missed opportunities to stop Manchester bomber Salman Abedi after the publication of a final report into the atrocity on Thursday....
– In July 2021, less than two months before Americans would bear witness to the end of the United States’ 20-year war in Afghanistan in the chaotic withdrawal from Hamid Karzai International Airport, President Joe Biden appeared before reporters in the East Room of the White House and insisted that despite Taliban’s slow march across the war-torn country towards the capital of Kabul, a militant takeover was “not inevitable.”
– Depuis l’invasion russe, ces hommes d’affaires richissimes, qui régnaient depuis trente ans sur le pays, ont perdu leurs leviers d’influence. Un tournant.
– There is no security vetting for people hired as parliamentary assistants by TDs or Senators, it has emerged in the wake of Australia’s decision to cancel the visa of an Irish-Russian woman who worked for both Fine Gael’s Bernard Allen and Willie Penrose of Labour.
- The Australian government on Monday said it planned to overhaul its cyber security rules and set up an agency to oversee government investment in the field and help coordinate responses to hacker attacks.
- Indonesia is seeking assurances from the UK that it will secure a share of any future financial settlement stemming from a British corruption investigation into aircraft maker Bombardier after Jakarta was left out of a deal reached with Airbus three years ago.
- The nature of crime is continually evolving, and as nefarious actors take advantage of emerging trends across the economic, political, environmental, social and technological landscapes the threats they pose become augmented, and emphasizes the need to think strategically and anticipate for longer-term drivers of change and conceivable future scenarios. A foresight project entitled the “Future of Crime” was undertaken to present changes across the domain of crime and illustrate how these shifts could alter our crime landscape and impact defence and security. The project is used as a case study to demonstrate the need to apply strategic foresight methodologies on different levels of decision-making from strategic to tactical. This chapter explores the ability for foresight methodology to inform strategic planning and operational capabilities in the domain of defence and security.
• Services
– At 21 years old, Amaryllis Fox was recruited into the CIA. By 22, she was one of the youngest female officers assigned to “non-official cover,” which means she conducted operations abroad but had no diplomatic protections as part of the most top-secret unit at the Agency.
– “I am a foreign agent of the special services of the Estonian Kapo,” the man, whose face has been blurred and whose voice has been rendered into bass, states on camera. “For a long time, I carried out tasks assigned to me by representatives of the Estonian Kapo, both on the territory of Estonia and in a number of other European countries, as well as on the territory of the Russian Federation in relation to civilians and including members of criminal groups.”
– U.S. Cyber Command, tasked with defending Department of Defense IT networks and coordinating _cyber_space operations, is developing its own intelligence hub, after years of relying on other information-gathering sources.
– After a years-long assessment, five U.S. intelligence agencies conclude it is ‘very unlikely’ an enemy wielding a secret weapon was behind the mysterious ailment
– Lancé dans une réforme d'ampleur de ses services de sécurité et de renseignement, l'émir du Koweït s'attaque désormais à son service de sécurité nationale. Il prévoit de le rattacher au ministère de l'intérieur, ce qui devrait renforcer encore un peu plus ce dernier.
– In the November 22, 2017 edition of "Spy Agency Happenings," the rebuilding of Putin's KGB spy agency is the central theme. The article explores Vladimir Putin's childhood as a street fighter living in a crowded housing development in the Soviet Union and his aspirations to become a spy. As a teenager, Putin attended a public reception at the KGB Directorate office to inquire about how to become a spy. It also discusses other KGB spies who defected from the agency and turned up in Britain and the US with large amounts of sensitive intelligence to share.
– The first American university to engage in a counter_intelligence_ programme of this kind, MIT is working on an investigation and monitoring system for Chinese students and researchers, close to Japanese academia's methods.
– The intelligence chiefs of 25 countries gathered in India’s capital New Delhi this week to discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
AI/Data for Human Analysts: methods, solutions, implementation, conditions, human ressources/capacities - @exmergere, @beta_economics & @EDACournot.
1yEn tête cette semaine l'initiative de Floran Vadillo pour créer une publication scientifique d'études de renseignement. La France est paradoxale sur ce sujet: ancienneté et structuration de ses services de renseignement, publiquement peu "interactifs" avec le monde de la recherche malgré des coopérations effectives, versus un relativement petit nombre de chercheurs sur le sujet, principalement concentrés sur l'histoire, le droit et la politique du domaine. Après la création du premier, et seul, diplôme nationale de renseignement, j'espère que cette publication fera avancer le sujet.
Quentin Ladetto , la #veille de Pierre Memheld devrait t’intéresser ;) superbe sélection Pierre Memheld !