Weekly economic report (week 8)

Last week saw stable currencies across regions amid mixed economic indicators. The UK Pound held at $1.26, buoyed by a better-than-expected increase in the S&P Global UK Composite PMI Index, while the Euro remained steady at $1.07 despite a slight dip in inflation. In the USA, the Dollar remained cautious around 104 as markets awaited GDP data, with Fed officials signalling ongoing inflation concerns. This week, key events include ECB President Lagarde's speech, Euro Area economic sentiment and inflation data, USA GDP growth rate estimate, and Japan's consumer confidence figures.

UK:

• The Pound remained comparatively stable last week around $1.26 after the S&P Global UK Composite PMI Index and Consumer Confidence Indicator data release.
• The S&P Global UK Composite PMI Index (the average of manufacturing and service sector PMIs) increased by 0.4%, more than expected.
• The Consumer Confidence Indicator unexpectedly fell to -21 from -19 last month.

EURO:

• The Euro remained stable last week around $1.07 after the data release for the inflation rate YoY in January.
• The inflation rate declined by 0.1% in January compared to December, being 2.8%.
• The consumer confidence indicator in the Euro area improved by 0.6 points, mainly attributed to the Composite PMI Flash increasing by 1 point, above the market consensus of 0.5 points.

USA:

• The Dollar remained stable around 104 last week, with caution that the GDP Data coming this week could affect this scenario.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that while the U.S. central bank has made a lot of progress lowering inflation pressures, ongoing risks mean he’s not yet ready to call for interest rate cuts.
• The global composite PMI flash declined by 0.6% in January.

Data this week

Monday (26th February)

ECB President Lagarde Speech (4 PM)

Wednesday (28th February)

Euro Area Economic Sentiment (10 AM)

USA GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Estimate (1:30 PM)

FED Bostic Speech (5 PM)

Thursday (29th February)

France YoY Inflation Rate (7:45 PM)

USA Core PCE Price Index MoM (1:30 PM)

Friday (1st March)

Japan Consumer Confidence (5 AM)

Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash (10 AM)

Euro Area Unemployment Rate (10 AM)

Italy Full Year GDP Growth (10 AM)

Italy Inflation Rate YoY Preliminary (10 AM)

Italy Government Budget (10 AM)

USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (1:30 pm)