Let’s take some brief stock of what went adrift last week.
🇨🇳 The number of ministers removed from office in China increased to four. It's already rare to see movement in China's top leadership, but sending three more ministers down the drain - after the foreign minister was sacked in the spring - is quite unusual.
Defence Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen since August. Finally, last Tuesday, Chinese public television announced without explanation that he was being relieved of his position, and his successor has not even been named yet.
CCTV footage has also revealed that the Minister of Finance, Liu Kun, and the Minister of Science and Technology, Wang Zhigang, have been replaced by leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with similar portfolios.
Foreign Minister Qin Gang met a similar fate in the spring, quietly disappearing from the public eye for a while, and then having his replacement announced. Not to mention Li Keqiang, former PM, who died of a heart attack the other Friday. He was two years younger than Xi himself.
State funeral of Li Keqiang.
🏮 By his third term, Xi Jinping has been able to centralize his grip on power to an almost Maoist degree, elevating and removing people in the blink of an eye at various levels of the hierarchy. The fight against corruption has long been a tool in China, meaning it is cracking down on those who are not loyal enough to Xi. In the army, for example, he has replaced more than 100 leaders in the last five years.
It is unclear even to sinologists whether this above reshuffle at ministerial level is simply a case of elite infighting, or whether Xi is looking for a loyal elite he can trust almost completely in a state of war.
The unexplained replacements do not reinforce the image of a solid China, but rather show how the CCP operates under Xi.
👁️🗨️ Administrative inquiries. In the US-China trade war, critical raw materials are not the only important things. In the latest development, Chinese authorities have launched an investigation into Foxconn, the world's largest electronics assembler, which, for example, assembles nearly 70% of Apple iPhones. The Chinese tax and land use investigation could send a pretty clear message to the White House about what awaits US companies in China if trade pressure intensifies.
Meanwhile, the US is also turning up the heat on big IT companies. Last week, 33 (!) attorneys general agreed to sue Facebook-Instagram owner Meta for allegedly developing an addictive algorithm and endangering the mental health of young people.
The lawsuit is similar to the former cigarette manufacturer lawsuits: the company chose to make more profit even though it knew and exploited the public health risks.
AI: Biden on Monday issued a new executive order regulating several critical areas of artificial intelligence–what to share with the government, what to share with consumers–beating his own Congress and the EU to it. Even the G7, a little bit. Next week we will delve into the UK AI summit as well.
Mike Johnson poses for a photo at his son's first rodeo. The Louisiana congressman has become Speaker of the House (Source:
🏛️ A MAGA speaker inda House. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives reached an agreement on the Speaker. Mike Johnson, a rather fresh member who has only been in the House since 2017 was elected. So far, his main activities have been focused on curbing LBGTQ+ rights, anti-abortion legislation, and the impeachment investigation of Biden, so we’re talking about a true Trumpist. Moreover, Johnson was part of the effort to keep Trump in power in 2020 regardless of the election results. His track on Ukraine votes is also mixed.
His first Fox interview with Sean Hannity was somewhat more subtle (compared to a MAGA person), but of course, in his opinion, the mass shooting in Maine over the weekend was not the fault of the gun control legislation. It is worth watching.
His most important and most difficult task will be to find a lasting solution to the government funding issue, which will expire in December. Otherwise the US risks again government shutdown (his predecessor McCarthy was essentially ousted for the compromise on this).
In connection with the shooting, the Washington Post made a count: 2,411 people have been killed in mass shootings (defined as 4 or more dead, excluding the perpetrator) since 2006. 56% of the victims are family members, 65% occur in family homes. 89% of perpetrators are male, 85% are lone perpetrators. Counterintuitive: only 28% of victims are strangers to the perpetrators. Basically, domestic violence is the most dominant motive. Details here with WaPo quality infographics.
🇪🇺 Fruitless EU summit. European Union heads of state and government gathered for two days in Brussels last week to agree on a common position on Gaza and Israel and to reach a deal on expanding the EU's common budget.
No particular breakthrough was achieved. What’s more, on Thursday, the joint EU statement (which talks about humanitarian pauses–that’s right, plural!) was adopted, and by Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the second phase of ground operations against Gaza, still ongoing one week late, encircling Gaza city.
The Multiannual Financial Framework–the seven-year budget, or MFF in EU-speak – was finalized in late 2020. So upgrades are badly needed. That's why the Commission has put on the table a €66 billion budget increase and new borrowing plans. One main item is the €50 billion four-year financial assistance to Ukraine.
No consesus was reached, so the leaders will reconvene in December.
🤝🏻 New pair. It was the first EUCO where Fico and Orbán participated together again. Robert Fico, the incoming Slovak PM, rejected support to Ukraine on the grounds of corruption in Kyiv, while Orbán cited its uselessness for peace purposes. Hungary is asking for an overall assessment of EU support to Ukraine: what did it achieve?
The Hungarian Prime Minister received a few comments on the Orbán-Putin meeting, but interestingly Macron said that he was "not shocked" by the handshake, as long as it does not call into question European unity. Macron then went on to talk instead about how Orbán's comparison of Moscow and Brussels is so wrong: confusing a sovereign election (that is to say, Hungary joining the EU) with the military domination of a country (Russian-Soviet occupation) is a "serious" "confusion of spirits".
Macron and Orban have cosied up recently: they share interest in keeping nuclear power subsidised in the EU.
It's not going well for Central-European autocrats' parties in the European Parliament: Fico's party, Smer, was suspended by the European socialists, while the membership of Babis' ANO party (Czech Republic) is being investigated by the liberals in the EP. Fidesz has previously "quit" the EPP.
Speaking of which: Orbán's friend, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who visited Beijing Belt and Road Forum, has announced early elections for Serbia on 17 December.
🔎 Self-check. For few sentences, I will return to the news mentioned in previous newsletters, because they demonstrate beautifully how difficult it is to filter information.
The mood surrounding the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector pipeline started to cool down earlier this week, with reports that it was just a ship's anchor that got caught in the pipeline in the shallow waters. In contrast, Baltic officials last week claimed that a state perpetrator was behind the incident. Lithuania has even announced increased underwater patrols of its offshore LNG terminal and there has been talk of banning Russians from the Baltic Sea. Then, by the end of the week, it emerged that Russian owners were behind the ship from Hong Kong after all, with the crew being replaced in Kaliningrad and the IDs switched off when they were near the pipeline. The Estonian side has indicated that they believe that the gas pipeline and two telecom cable cuts are linked because not only did they occur in the same time window, but the Chinese and another Russian vessel may have been present around all three incidents. We shall see, anyhow, the case is getting more interesting by the day!
Netanyahu had to delete a Facebook post blaming secret services for the October 7 terrorist attack. He then admitted his own responsibility. More and more people think he should resign soon. Friday's polls showed that 49% of Israelis would have held off on a military operation in Gaza.
Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu from Otzma Yehudit was suspended on Sunday from government meetings after he said dropping an atom bomb on Gaza is an option in an interview with Kol Baram on Sunday morning. (Source:
📚 Capitalizing on the holiday today, some long-read recommendations, most from the scene of espionage - to keep you awake after the Halloween holidays!
Vsquare has an excellent piece on the untroubled lives of Russian spies in Brussels.
The other side: sabotage operations and the activities of Ukrainian spies in Russia, by the WaPo.
If you want to get even closer: Austria, the nest of spies. Interview with an expert blogger.
