Weekly Global Conflict OSINT Report (September 26th - October 2nd)
Metis Analytics- OSINT Recon Center (Cyber, GEO)
The Cyber and Geospatial Reconnaissance center of Metis Analytics.
Summary
· Russia captured the small fortress of Vugledar.
· A shootout between gang members and Mexican police result in reportedly only gang casualties.
· The conflict in the Middle East escalates significantly from the assassination of Hezbollah's leader to the start of a ground operation unofficially called the 'Third Lebanon War' to Iran launching their long awaited retaliation.
· Hamas, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and Ansar Allah did not idly sit around either with all three launching their own attacks against Israel.
· In addition, Israeli Embassies are being targeted likely in support of the Axis of Resistance.
· Sudanese forces managed to counterattack in Omdurman and gained a foothold in the city.
· The Wall Street Journal claimed that China lost a prototype nuclear submarine in May.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Incident: On the 1st of October, Russian forces reportedly captured Vugledar after recent pushes along the eastern and southern sides of the fortress town. Vugledar has stood since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
North America
Incident: On the 26th of September, a shootout between an unknown criminal group and Mexican police left 11 members of that gang dead.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Northern Europe
Incident: On the 1st of October, three Swedish citizens were arrested for throwing hand grenades at the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen, Denmark. Fortunately, no one was injured and the embassy reported only minor damage.
Threat Level: Low
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Attacks on Israeli businesses and government facilities worldwide may come under fire in the coming days or weeks and staff at these facilities should maintain a heightened awareness of suspicious activity.
Western Asia - Middle East
Subsection: Israel-Lebanon Conflict
Incident: On the 26th of September, the IDF targeted all the official border crossings between Lebanon and Syria claiming they were being used to transport weapons and rockets into Lebanon from Syria. It is worth noting that the transportation or smuggling of weapons into Lebanon are most likely taking place through unofficial crossings or underground facilities.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: The only mitigation solution for this type of situation would be for the Lebanese Government to implement a stronger border control policy that rejects weapons coming in from foreign actors. However, this isn't a mitigation effort the Lebanese Government is willing to do due to the prevalence of Hezbollah in the government.
Incident: On the 27th of September, Israel struck Hezbollah's central headquarters located underground in the Dahiye district of Beirut, Lebanon. Both Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah's drone force, were killed in this strike.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Despite successfully killing Hezbollah's leader, Hezbollah was not deterred and remain an active threat to Israel.
Incident: On the 28th of September, Hezbollah launched their first major retaliation against Israel since the death of Nasrallah. This response knocked out power to the Kfar Adumim settlement near Jerusalem.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As the war continues to escalate, civilians are advised to seek shelter immediately upon hearing an air raid siren. Additionally, everyone in Israel should keep up to date with all local guidelines to ensure their safety. This will be a recurring recommendation.
Incident: On the 30th of September, Israel officially launched their special military operation in southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah positions near the border at a reported maximum depth of 20 kilometers. The IDF claim this operation will be much shorter than the 2006 Lebanon War but only time will tell how long the operation, popularly called the 'Third Lebanon War,' will last.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Despite the goal of this operation being the destruction of Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, it is unlikely this will alter Hezbollah's attacks on Israeli population centers. Anyone living in Israel should keep up to date with all local guidelines regarding Hezbollah's potential actions.
Incident: On the 1st of October, the first ground battle between the IDF and Hezbollah reportedly took place near the town of Adaisseh in southern Lebanon along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: Throughout the week, Israel launched multiple assassination strikes killing ten major leaders, officers, and commanders belonging to various different groups. Without counting the strike that killed Nasrallah and Karaki, here is the list of the six assassination airstrikes conducted by Israel:
· On the 26th of September, Muhammad Hossein Sarour, Hezbollah's drone force commander, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in the southern districts of Beirut, Lebanon.
· On the 28th of September, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoshan, an IRGC commander stationed in Lebanon, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon.
· On the 28th of September, Hassan Khalil Yassin, Hezbollah's Intelligence commander, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in the Dahiye district of Beirut, Lebanon.
· On the 29th of September, three high-ranking members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon.
· On the 29th of September, Fateh Sharif Abu Al-Amin, commander of Hamas in Lebanon, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in El-Buss, Lebanon.
· On the 1st of October, Muhammad Ja'far Qasir, commander of Hezbollah's Weapons Transfer Unit (Unit 4400), was claimed to be killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon.
Threat Level: Intermediate to Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As with last week, civilians will not know where anti-Israel forces are gathered. This means that the best possible mitigation available is to provide aid where possible and to get the wounded to any nearby hospital as fast and as safely as possible.
Subsection: Iranian Response
Incident: On the 1st of October, Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack of at least 200 missiles against Israel called Operation True Promise 2. Per Iranian officials, only the Mossad HQ, Nevatim airbase, Hatzerim airbase, Ort Tel Nof airbase, strategic radars, and gathering places of Israeli tanks were targeted. As videos shared online show, a lot of ballistic missiles struck civilian areas around central Israel. Reportedly, hypersonic missiles were utilized this time around. In addition to the previously listed targets, at least one gas rig off the coast of Ashkelon was damaged or destroyed.
Threat Level: High
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As the war continues to escalate, civilians are advised to seek shelter immediately upon hearing an air raid siren. Additionally, everyone in Israel should keep up to date with all local guidelines to ensure their safety. This will be a recurring recommendation.
Subsection: Ansar Allah's Actions
Incident: On the 26th of September, central Israel was targeted by a ballistic missile fired from Yemen.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As the war continues to escalate, civilians are advised to seek shelter immediately upon hearing an air raid siren. Additionally, everyone in Israel should keep up to date with all local guidelines to ensure their safety. This will be a recurring recommendation.
Incident: On the 27th of September, Yemen's Ansar Allah claimed they utilized a mixture of 23 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones to attack three US Destroyers in the Red Sea, further claiming to have hit all three ships. Despite Ansar Allah's claims, they have provided no evidence to indicate successful hits and the three destroyers are most likely unharmed.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 28th of September, Yemen's Ansar Allah fired hypersonic missiles at Israel shortly before Hezbollah's rocket attack with at least one of them targeting Ben Gurion airport during Netanyahu's return from the UN.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As the war continues to escalate, civilians are advised to seek shelter immediately upon hearing an air raid siren. Additionally, everyone in Israel should keep up to date with all local guidelines to ensure their safety. This will be a recurring recommendation.
Incident: On the 29th of September, Israel launched a series of retaliatory airstrikes on Hodeidah in response to Yemen's ballistic missile attacks the night before.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: As the war continues to escalate, civilians are advised to seek shelter immediately upon hearing an air raid siren. In specific for those living in Yemen avoid port facilities and energy substations as much as possible as these are the most likely targets Israel will strike.
Incident: On the 1st of October, Ansar Allah struck the British tanker Cordelia Moon and the Marathopolis in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean respectively with both ships taking moderate damage.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Traversing areas around Yemen remains very dangerous and onboard security should constantly be on the ready to either engage approaching drones or provide assistance with damage control efforts.
Subsection: Hamas and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Incident: On the 30th of September, following the invasion of Lebanon, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted the Baghdad International Airport hoping to strike US forces stationed there. At least one rocket fired by the IRI landed on the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service HQ.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Incident: On the 1st of October, a pair of Hamas terrorists carried out a mass shooting in Jaffa, Tel Aviv killing eight and wounding 10 others. At least one attacker was killed shortly after by security forces with the other attacker unaccounted for due to the Iranian missile attack. Per the Israeli Army Radio news group, the two terrorists stabbed an IDF soldier, stole his guns, and proceeded to shoot anyone they saw.
Threat Level: Medium
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: Active shooter situations remain highly volatile and dangerous, even more so when it's a terrorist attack. The best course of action is to either run away towards safety or to shelter in place and out of sight until the threat is neutralized by security forces.
Eastern Africa
Incident: On the 26th of September, after months of setbacks, the Sudanese military reportedly organized a successful major counterattack in the city of Omdurman, gaining a foothold within the city and pushed back RSF forces.
Threat Level: Intermediate
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: For those still residing in Omdurman, it may be best to either remain sheltered in place or evacuate towards SAF controlled areas.
Eastern Asia - Pacific
Incident: On the 26th of September, the Wall Street Journal claimed that the newest Chinese nuclear submarine sank while docked pier-side back in late May. Wall Street Journal further claimed that information about this accident wasn't made public due to extensive cover-up operations by the Chinese Government.
Threat Level: N/A
Risk Mitigation Recommendations: N/A
Sources
Russo-Ukrainian War
North America
Northern Europe
Western Asia - Middle East
Subsection: Israel-Lebanon Conflict
Subsection: Iranian Response
Subsection: Ansar Allah's Actions
Subsection: Hamas and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq
Eastern Africa
Eastern Asia - Pacific
Predictions/Op-ed
The Middle East Continues to Burn
This week ended up being probably the most consequential week for the Middle East since early July of 2006 when the Second Lebanon War started. We begin this week with significant news about Hezbollah and Lebanon before bouncing south to Ansar Allah launching ballistic missiles at Israel and more conventional missiles at ships in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean and ultimately closing out the week with Iran launching their largest attack on Israel ever.
For the past few weeks, Hezbollah suffered significant losses to Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations ultimately culminating in the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the now former leader of Hezbollah. To make matters worse for Hezbollah, Israel began their special military operation in southern Lebanon with the goal of destroying Hezbollah's positions along the border and establishing a security buffer zone reportedly all the way up to the Litani River. Despite their losses, Hezbollah hasn't backed down and seem intent on putting a fight for every inch of the south.
Looking at Ansar Allah's actions, they continued to do what they do best, launch missiles that get intercepted by Israel before receiving multiple precision strikes on important facilities by the Israeli Air Force. However, Ansar Allah's increased proclivity to using hypersonics against Israel poses a grave threat that even the best air defenses struggle with intercepting. And we can't forget that Ansar Allah will attack civilian ships in any of the waters around Yemen. Luckily the two ships attacked this week were able to get to safety and no deaths onboard.
And our last summary, Iran, with absolutely no warning, managed to attack Israel with around 200 ballistic missiles, many of which were hypersonics from the Fattah 1 and 2 series. While it would've been good to a repeat of their April attack that was largely stopped, this one was far more successful due to the lack of warning and type of missile used. Even with US ships intercepting a few missiles, air defenses were simply overwhelmed. A full damage assessment is not possible at this time.
So with all that said, where are we now? With Rosh Hashanah taking place until the 4th of October and Israel focused primarily on the Lebanese front, we may have to wait for Israel's response which will happen. Depending on Israel's response, we may see the entire region escalate into a very, very devastating war that will cause a lot of collateral damage to every nation due to the oil facilities in the path of war and embargoes likely to happen. As always, only time will tell but we're standing over a very serious and dangerous precipice right now that has the potential to reshape the world.