Welcome

Welcome to this third edition of the Fix NDIS Campaign Newsletter. Our aim to to get several people from the disability community elected to the next federal parliament to Fix NDIS. No-one else is going to do it for us, so we will do it ourselves. Subscribe. Keep informed. Become involved.

River Night | Candidate for Blair (QLD)

River Night is a disability advocate, carer and entrepreneur. He has been working for 30 years to create a united voice on disability issues. He is the Democracy First candidate for Blair, based on Ipswich, west of Brisbane.

Blair is held by Labor. It is the kind of seat Labor politicians have held and ignored for decades.

River has three decades experience in community sector activity across disabilities, child safety, guardianship, advocacy, youth justice, forensic services, primary, high school and adult education, and drug and alcohol programs in government and non-government agencies. With personal, lived experience of disability, and as a carer and father, he is a significant voice in media and as a sector advocate.

He co-founded Developing Australian Communities which runs disability networking and Expo events across Australia.

He started the National Disability Leadership Organisation which works to recognise the front line work of dedicated people living with disability, professionals, volunteers and staff.

River is a proud husband and father living with autism He is a carer for his wife, who has multiple disabilities.

Blair is typical of many electorates on the fringe of our cities, a mix of city and country. It has a complexity of real-world issues that have been ignored by Labor and Liberal for decades - challenges for small business, education, health, drug and alcohol abuse, regional services, infrastructure and housing, affordable living and the ability for everyday Australians to establish security for their families without constant changes and policy turmoil imposed by career politicians.

River is one of the many in Blair that live in ‘NBN ready’ suburbs that still simply can’t get NBN or a mobile phone service that can be used reliably by small business.

He is stepping forward to provide an intelligent choice for voters, when the major parties are hard to tell apart and the far left and far right seem more interested in YouTube views and shock tactics than running a country. River's approach demands less talk and spin and real world practical change.

Campaign Director

We are seeking a Campaign Director to oversee our national campaign. This is a voluntary position for the next five months. We require a person with exceptional commitment and skills in renovating Australian democracy and transforming the social services landscape.

See www.democracyfirst.org.au/fixndis/

Enquiries to: Vern Hughes 0425 722 890 vern@democracyfirst.org.au

Is it possible to win seats in the House of Reps?

Labor's support has remained at 29% according to the latest Resolve poll in the SMH/The Age. This figure is low enough to make a string of House of Reps seats winnable for a mainstream Third Party positioned in the centre, as we are in Democracy First.

Many people don't understand how our electoral system works. We've all been told since the year dot that politics is about Labor vs Liberal. Pick a side. That's all you need to do.

This has never been more untrue than today. This is how it works:

In the national figures above, there are 35% of people saying they will vote for Others, compared with 29% for Labor and 37% for Liberal.

The vote for Others (35%) is higher than it has ever been (it was 34% last month, and that was a record high). It is high enough for a mainstream Third Party candidate to win in more than 70 seats out of the 150 in the House of Reps - providing the Green voters (13%) and the One Nation voters (6%) and the Independent voters (10%) and Others (6%) give their no.2 or no.3 preference to a centrist Third Party candidate.

This is exactly what happened in the 2022 result in Fowler in Sydney's West, where a centrist Independent, Dai Le, was in the race and polled 29% of the vote. Dai Le won with 29%, defeating Labor's Kristina Kenneally (36%) and the Liberal's Courtney Nguyen (17%). Because Dai Le is a centrist, the voters for other minor parties in Fowler (6% Greens, 5% UAP, 4% One Nation, 3% LibDems) gave their no.2 preference to her. Normally they would give them to Labor or Liberal, but because Dai Le is a centrist they went to her first. If Dai Le had not been in the field, those voters would have given their no.2 preference to Labor or Liberal as they usually do, and Kristina Keneally would now be on the ALP front bench.

But thanks to Dai Le, that didn't happen.

So, what would happen if there is a centrist like Dai Le in ever contest? Well, in 70 of the 150 seats, the centrist would win. This analysis is based on the votes actually cast in 2022 by voters for various Others. In other words, with 35% for Others, all that is required for 70 seats to be won by a Third Party is that there be a good centrist candidate in the middle of the field to attract the no.2 and no.3 preferences ahead of the majors.

And this poll figure of 35% for Others is higher than the 32% recorded for Others in 2022. Amongst the Others, we know that the Greens vote has peaked at 13%, and One Nation at 6%. We can say this for certain because polling over the last 12 months has produced remarkably stable figures for these parties. That is, no matter how much the Greens campaign, they have reached their ceiling of 13%. Their hard Left positioning prevents them going past this number. The same applies to One Nation, with a ceiling of 6%.The only option that has not peaked is the mainstream centrist option, Democracy First.

This means that with some serious organisation, a swag of seats can be won from the mainstream centre. Most of these are Labor-held seats in outer urban areas, where voters have no inclination to vote Liberal. With Labor at 29%, a swag of seats can be won.

The Lib-Lab duopoly is a House of Cards. It still looks formidable. But its foundations have rotted away.

For a community with large networks, a presence in the lives of families everywhere, and good organisational skills, a swag of seats is there for the taking.

Join our Fix NDIS Campaign are become involved. www.democracyfirst.org.au/fixndis/

Join Up | Participate | Become Involved

Everyone is welcome. We want tens of thousands of Australians involved in this campaign, from various backgrounds.

• People with disabilities
• Family members
• Carers (unpaid)
• Support workers
• Service providers
• Advocates
• Supporters

Register and tell us how you would like to be involved. www.democracyfirst.org.au/fixndis/