What is the Anthropocene Reality?
“As we peer into society's future, we – you and I, and our government – must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow.”[i]
When Eisenhower spoke these words in his farewell speech in 1961, he was more concerned about democracy and society than sustainability. Nonetheless, the words resonate powerfully given the challenges currently faced, with some of his fears well founded.
America started measuring atmospheric CO2 levels at the Mauna Loa observatory on Hawaii 3 years beforehand, in 1958. Since then atmospheric CO2 levels have increased from around 320 ppm to around 420 ppm today, an increase of over 30%. Scientists estimate this level is comparable to the Pliocene period, when sea level may have been 17 meters higher, global temperatures 2˚C to 3˚C higher and poles ice free. Climate change is happening more quickly than anticipated with the impacts already being felt by billions. These impacts will continue to be felt and will become more severe till well into this century.
Over the same period the global population has soared from around 2.5 billion to nearly 8 billion, with life expectancy rising from 50 to over 70. Total wealth has increased to around $500 trillion but it is spread incredibly unevenly, with the richest 1% owning more than the poorest 55%. This economic growth has been supported by huge increases in human material and energy consumption, with energy consumption tripling over the period 1960 to 2022[ii].
Humans are now so numerous and so dominant, that for the first time in planetary history, the activities of a single species are driving planetary outcomes, rather than geological and natural processes. Scientists have started to refer to this as the Anthropocene, coining the phrase for a new geological epoch in which the activities of humans have become the dominant force on the planet.
The mass of human produced items is estimated to have exceeded the mass of all the biomass on the planet in 2020[iii]. Habitats have been destroyed and approximately 25% of all species are now threatened with extinction[iv]. Human activity is polluting the biosphere which provides food, water, air and the raw materials which are the base of much economic activity. Humans are also using up the Earth’s resources at a faster rate than they can be replenished, breaching planetary boundaries on multiple dimensions[v]. 1.7 Earths would be need to satisfy current consumption rates on an ongoing, sustainable basis[vi].
Myriad other problems are faced, including antibiotic resistance, plastics, space junk and obesity. Most of this is financed and facilitated by today’s financial and economic system, which continues to allocate capital to activities which exacerbate these issues. A market failure of epic proportions, patently neither sustainable, nor in the public interest.
These problems are well documented and broadly recognised, so why is it so hard to address them?
Examining the current system reveals shortcomings in its design and perhaps more critically in our embedded societal beliefs about it, such as broadly held beliefs that more financial wealth will lead to improved prosperity, that the ‘invisible hand’ of the market is wise or that prices should not capture externalities. Identifying these shortcomings leads to a list of 10 recommendations to address these, design principles for a better future, or a good Anthropocene, defined as a future with a stable climate, which supports sustainable and equitable prosperity within the finite bounds of the planet.
Delivering a good Anthropocene will require a fundamental re-tooling of humanity’s financial and economic system, to one that recognises humans are part of the Earth system and wholly dependent on its continued functioning. This transformation will need to be driven by a new shared story of human prosperity, a story in which humanity is intricately connected to, a steward of, and dependent on nature and the Earth system. This can be a story of abundance, justice and equality. A story of co-operation in which humankind leverages all its busy endeavour to create a better and sustainable future for all life on Earth, a Good Anthropocene.
This is the Anthropocene Reality. Now that we’ve worked out we are driving the planet, it is in our collective gift to drive it responsibly, rather than recklessly.
Figure 1: The Anthropocene Reality
Success is not a given, nor does history offer much encouragement given humanity’s track record on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the protection of nature or the reduction of inequality.
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But there is hope. More people than ever before are aware of the climate crisis. Net zero commitments span hundreds of governments and thousands of companies, cities, states and universities. More people than ever before believe the story of climate change and that we must now take action at unprecedented pace and scale to decarbonise our economy and so limit global warming. Climate change solutions are scaling rapidly, showing many of the characteristics of the classic S-curve that is frequently observed with human technology shifts[vii]. Capital is also beginning to be materially allocated to low carbon technologies with renewables investments exceeding fossil fuel investments and breaking the $1 trillion mark in 2023. It remains technically possible to reduce emissions and stabilise the climate. Where climate has led, equity and nature topics must follow.
On the other hand, if we fail to limit climate change and protect the asset that is nature, then scientists predict significantly reduced human habitability. All the societal and economic gains of the last 250 years may be lost as we push the Earth system out of the ecological niche in which our civilization has evolved.
A particular risk of a Bad Anthropocene is presented by the non-linear change characteristics of complex systems and so called tipping points or tipping elements. The impacts from triggering Earth System tipping points would cascade through interconnected social and economic systems, beyond the ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude never before faced by humanity[viii].
Adapted from IFOA Redington Prize Essay, May 2022.
[i] Military-Industrial Complex Speech, Dwight D.Eisenhower,1961
Principal and Consulting Actuary at Milliman UK
10moVery thought-provoking Sandy
Nice chart! Super encouraging to see some actuaries (Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) do I hear you?) are discovering more about dynamical chaotic systems such as weather and climate, with key concepts such as fluid dynamics, quasi-geostrophic theory, circulation systems, turbulence, homeostasis, probabilism (in addition to stochasticism) and uncertainty in complex systems on the same page as "rocket science" (and beyond traditional statistical "return periods"). The late great mathematician and meteorologist Ed Lorenz (who the Nobel Laureate gave the cold shoulder to despite his seminal work on chaos aka "the butterfly effect") would be smiling 😊 today: there is multi-disciplinary hope after all for humanity's sake! Cc: Ranjan Bhaduri Stephanie Gould Rabin Andreas Zell Ajay Somani