What is Break-even point in elections – dynamics of vote & seat share

By all accounts, the 2024 assembly elections in Andhra will be very closely contested and hard to predict.  Given the tight elections, what should each party focus on – vote or seat share. The 2024 elections will prove whether YS Jagan, has the charisma of his father, YSR, to win a second consecutive term or will Chandrababu Naidu leave the electoral politics with a big ‘hurrah’. 

In the Indian electoral system, defined as first past the post method, we will look at the vote & seat share of the parties in the context of AP. The seat share (proportion of total seats won) is the most important consideration for winning but is not necessarily the best indicator of the proportion of voters who voted for the party.  To understand that, let us look at some examples. There are 3 main scenarios and let us see how they played out in the context of AP elections

• Scenario 1: high vote share & very high seat share – a winner takes all phenomenon. This results in higher than the break-even point in the seat share by vote share ratio. This ratio is an interesting indicator of how well a party has converted votes into seats.  Generally, a party with high seat share goes on to form the govt. E.g., TDP in 1983/1985/1994/1999, INC/YSRCP in 1989/2004/2009/2019
• Scenario 2: relatively high vote share but lower proportionate seat share i.e. lower than the break-even point. Generally, the 2nd placed party E.g. YSRCP in 2014 & TDP in 2019
• Scenario 3: relatively low vote share but much lower seat share. Ex. PRP in 2009, JSP in 2019

• In the graph indicated above, X/horizonal axis is the vote share & the Y/vertical axis is the ratio of seat share by vote share. The seat share by vote share ratio indicates how efficient was the vote share in winning seats; it is an important metric which disproportionately rewards the party with a highest vote share and penalises a party with a lower vote share. E.g. If a party wins 20% of the votes and get 20% of the seats then the ratio/factor is 1 and that party has hit the ‘break-even point’.
• The 2009 election and 2014 elections have been contrasting for TDP & INC/YSRCP – because both parties have been at wrong end of the break-even point spectrum, once.                         

In 2009 elections  

• INC with 38.7% of the vote share, managed to win 106 ACs. So, with an additional 4.6% of the vote share (over TDP), INC managed to win double the ACs of TDP. The seat share/vote share ratio is 60.6%/38.7% i.e. a factor of 1.5 and much higher than the break-even point (Scenario 1), indicating the efficiency of the vote share of INC
• TDP with 34.1% of the vote share, managed to win only 53 ACs. The seat share/vote share ratio is 30.3%/34.1% i.e. a factor of 0.9 and hence lower than the break-even point (Scenario 2)
• PRP with 19.2% of the vote share, managed to win 16 ACs i.e. 9.1% of the seat share (16/175). The seat share/vote share ratio is 9.1%/19.2% i.e. a factor of 0.5, much lower than the break-even point (Scenario 3)

 -          The tables turned in the 2014 elections for the two main parties

• TDP with 45.2% of the vote share, managed to win 102 ACs i.e. 58.3% of the seat share (102/175). The seat share/vote share ratio is 58.3%/45.2% i.e. a factor of 1.3, higher than the break-even point (Scenario 1)
• YSRCP with 44.6% of the vote share, managed to win only 67 ACs i.e. 38.3% of the seat share (67/175). With an additional 0.6% of the vote share, TDP managed to win 35 more ACs than YSRCP. The seat share/vote share ratio is 38.3%/44.6% i.e. a factor of 0.9, lower than the break-even point (Scenario 2)
• In 2019 JSP’s debut electoral performance was significantly under-whelming than PRP in 2009. Apart from the fact that their vote share was 6.2% as compared to the 19.2% of PRP in 2009, if we look at it from the lens of break-even point, the ratio/factor for PRP was 0.5 while it was only 0.1 for JSP.So if we look at the last 9 elections the vote share & the number of seats difference between the No.1 party & the No.2 party it is as follows

Based on the understanding from the past 9 elections, for a party to emerge as a winner, they need to be ahead of the No.2 party in vote share terms by at least 6% (except for 2014 elections). Questions that come to mind in terms of the likely 2024 scenarios in AP are

-          Is YSRCP ahead of TDP by 6% vote share at the total AP level

-          Is YSRCP ahead of a combined TDP+JSP by 6% vote share – unlikely if we factor in at least a bit of anti-incumbency

-          Is TDP ahead of YSRCP by 6% vote share

-          Is a combined TDP+JSP ahead of YSRCP by 6% vote share

The only exception to the rule is the 2014 elections. Will 2024 be a very closely contested election like the 2014 elections. It is quite possible given the 2 main parties are fighting it out like a do-or-die battle. If we must draw the battle lines in terms of the vote share of the parties, the following vote shares can be assumed as the core vote bank which may not be swayed that easily.

So the 2024 elections, the balance 10% swing voters will decide who will form the govt in AP in 2024.