What is the future of COPs - repeal or repeat?
As the second week of COP29 in Baku is ending, the question of whether or not the COP process makes sense has gained momentum once again. The biggest point of contention at this COP concerns climate finance, as representatives from developing countries and the civil society have demanded that the developed countries scale up their effort by 10 times, to a minimum of $1 trillion per year (for a comprehensive overview of the issue see this paper, by Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis and Patrick Bolton and this one by the same authors and Jeromin Zettelmeyer).
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Despite their flaws, COPs have delivered the Paris Agreement, two global climate funds - the Green Climate Fund and the Loss and Damage Fund - and have brought countries to commit to phase out fossil fuels, end fossil fuel subsidies, operationalize carbon trading globally, and stop deforestation.
In an open letter to all States that are part of the UNFCCC, also to Simon Stiell (Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC) and to António Guterres (UN Secretary General), a high-level group of signatories has suggested a way forward to reform COPs. To enhance credibility they suggest changing the selection process of COP presidencies, introducing strict eligibility criteria based on countries commitment to the UNFCCC climate agenda, and limiting the number of fossil fuel lobbyists participating to COPs, who last year reached the record number of 2,456 (a thousand more delegates than those from the ten most climate vulnerable nations combined). They also suggest that COPs should shift away from gigantic annual events to smaller thematic meetings, mainly focused on progress reporting, so to streamline and speed up negotiations. They also put forward recommendations to strengthen countries accountability, amplify the voice of science and institute a Climate-Poverty Envoy.
Their plea for reform should be heard and changes swiftly enacted. In a world that is getting more and more fragmented we do not need new fora or exclusive climate clubs, but a stronger multilateral COP framework.