What is the Future for European Security?

A lot depends on the United States' commitment to NATO and what Europeans choose to make of their own security.

Last week, the leaders of the NATO member countries from Europe and North America gathered in Washington D.C. They joined U.S. President Joe Biden to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO, the world's most successful intergovernmental military alliance. This military alliance has helped secure peace for its members in the North Atlantic region since its beginnings in the era that saw the end of World War 2 and the advent of the Cold War.

The North Atlantic Treaty which created the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, more commonly known as NATO, was signed in Washington in 1949. Its primary goal has always been defensive rather than offensive. It seeks a lasting peace, based on its member countries’ common values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. 

It has achieved this goal over the last 75 years through credible deterrence which is buttressed by the principle of collective defense enshrined in Article 5 of the organisation’s founding treaty. This provides that an armed attack on a member NATO country will be considered an attack against all members.  

NATO, Cornerstone of European Security

NATO, which has its headquarters in Europe, has been the cornerstone of European security throughout the Cold War and beyond. At the time of NATO’s founding, the biggest threat facing its original twelve member states was the threat posed by the Russian-led Soviet Union, the expansionist one-party communist state headquartered in Moscow. NATO member countries in Europe were particularly vulnerable to this threat from the East.

Today, NATO has grown to include thirty-two member countries, with the newest member, Sweden, joining this year. It is fair to say that the alliance has adapted to the times and has maintained its relevance beyond the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Indeed, all its military interventions occurred in the post-Cold War era.

During the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, the alliance conducted its first military intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995 to help bring lasting peace to this European region that found itself at war. After the horrific terrorist attacks on America on 9/11, Article 5 was invoked for the first and only time. All NATO member countries participated in the multinational military mission in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014.

More recently, the European security landscape has deteriorated and the alliance has had to adapt to this changed landscape. One of the biggest threats to European security right now derives from a reemerging menace in Europe’s Eastern neighborhood. In what seems to be a case of history rhyming with its earlier self, Europe has witnessed the return of an old behaviour in international relations that it may have hoped would never occur again: that of a belligerent state disregarding international law, violating sovereign borders, and seeking the annexation of a neighbouring state.

Inter-state war has now returned to the European continent. Europe and its allies are now confronting the largest violent conflict since World War II as an irredentist Russia continues its ongoing invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. This invasion beginning in 2022 follows Russia’s annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014. This war on NATO’s eastern borders represents the antithesis of the organisation's common values.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but it wants to be. It is situated in the European neighbourhood so its security matters for European security more broadly. At the NATO summit in Washington last week, NATO member countries endorsed increased support to Ukraine to aid its self-defense against Russian aggression. This includes long-term projects that support recovery and reconstruction in the country, institutional transformation, and help transition towards NATO interoperability. If Ukraine can secure peace it may one day be able to join NATO.

All for One and One for All

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty has effectively deterred attacks on European NATO member countries throughout its history, as the cost of such aggression was deemed too high. It was always understood that the U.S., by far the strongest member of the alliance, would come to Europe’s aid if and when needed. For Europeans, the support of the American superpower towards their security was considered ironclad.

Reassured that an attack from the outside could be deterred, most European member countries had gained the political space that allowed them to transform their relations for the better, given their recent war-torn history. They sought to use this political space to bolster the goal of lasting peace within Europe through European integration. This progressive pursuit was another strand in transforming the European security landscape.

The increasing political and economic integration of Europe which has resulted in today’s twenty-seven member state European Union has made the prospect of war between its member states very unlikely. It should come as no surprise that the majority of European NATO member countries are also EU member states, have benefited from EU membership, or want to be EU member states because their common values overlap. It is also no surprise that in addition to NATO, Ukraine wants to integrate into the West by becoming an EU member.

Inside the overlapping NATO and EU tents, it is fair to say that Europe is now at peace with itself, however, on the outside, war rages to the East and the threat from highly armed hostile countries who do not share its values, such as a highly nuclear-armed Russia, remains. With shared common values NATO and the EU complement each other. However, it remains an open question if a politically and economically integrated Europe could continue to enjoy lasting peace without the collective security umbrella the traditional NATO transatlantic alliance provides.

Under-Investment and Over-Reliance

Historically, Europe has had some of the strongest collective military capabilities in the world. This could still be the case if European nations had not engaged in frequent conflicts with each other. However, the major wars of the 20th century significantly altered international power dynamics. As Europe's global power declined, American power accelerated.

Despite postwar prosperity, European countries have also not helped their security posture by overindulging in the peace dividend that followed the end of the Cold War. This overindulgence has led to insufficient investment in their military capabilities. Recent data on military spending shows that many European NATO member countries spend only slightly more than the minimum of 2% of GDP on defence. Some, including some of the largest member countries, do not even meet this minimum threshold.

Europe seems to have not sufficiently prepared for a world remarkably different from what was expected when the Berlin Wall was torn down. Arguably only a handful of European countries are capable today of deterring an attack on their territories, let alone having the capability to simultaneously deter an attack on a fellow member country. Britain and France, for example, are the only two European NATO member countries with an independent strategic nuclear deterrent.

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