What's Past Is Prologue

As I described in my recent post, Fareed Zakaria’s recent book, “Age of Revolution,” provides an examination of the forces that shaped our modern world. From the revolutions of the past, Zakaria articulates the seismic shifts that have redefined global dynamics, influenced political landscapes, and reshaped societal structures. In a world that looks eerily like prior periods of revolution, there is much we can learn by analyzing history. However, analysis is meaningless if we do not learn from the past, and historically, we have failed to do so. It was Henry Kissinger that once said: “it is not often that nations learn from the past, even rarer that they draw the correct conclusions from it.” Analyzing periods that look like our current day is the first step, but it’s the application of these lessons to our current context that enables constructive pathways.

Some theorize that as those who lived through previous revolutionary periods leave us, we lose their wisdom and repeat our mistakes. The book titled The Fourth Turning does a great job of describing these repeating cycles of history. Considering this phenomenon, I view a focus on the past as a critical step towards breaking the cycle. This book by Zakaria and many like it are instructive. I’ve distilled the book into eight key themes that illuminate the narrative of our evolving world, as viewed through the eyes of the author. Many books have recently been written to explore the past and gather its lessons. It is telling that the focus on history is intensifying. After presenting the key themes from the Age of Revolutions, I will explore the perspectives of various authors in my book library.

Zakaria argues that revolutions, in various forms, have driven profound transformations throughout history. These waves of political, economic, and social upheaval are interconnected and collectively impact the course of human development. The book covers revolutions from the 17th century to the present day. It explores their origins, courses, and long-term consequences, emphasizing their global context and importance. Zakaria begins with the Enlightenment, which planted the seeds for the 17th and 18th-century revolutions. He traces the rise and fall of empires, the formation of nation-states, and the struggle for rights and representation. The book delves into the rise of classical liberalism, as well as periods of rage and counter-revolution following seismic changes. For instance, it starts with the upstart Dutch Republic—a modern republic and techno-superpower—where refugees and rebels sought individual liberty. With that as the backdrop, the key themes are:

Theme One: Political Dynamics and Power Shifts

The end of the Cold War in 1991 marked an extraordinary period of unipolarity with the United States at the helm. This era saw unprecedented global stability, free from major geopolitical conflicts and arms races. American ideals – such as free markets, democracy, and human rights -were widely promoted and accepted. However, as American dominance waned, we witnessed a resurgence of political polarization and a retreat from openness and liberalism. The increasing polarization echoes the divisiveness of America’s Civil War, underscoring how political power shifts can destabilize global and domestic landscapes.

In summary, the theme of political dynamics and power shifts underscores how the changing global landscape impacts both domestic politics and international relations. It highlights the delicate balance between stability and upheaval, as well as the need for adaptive governance in an interconnected world.

Theme Two: Backlash Against Rapid Change

Rapid advancements in technology, economic practices, and social identities often trigger significant backlash. Societies struggling to adapt to these swift changes tend to look backward, yearning for an imagined golden age. Zakaria highlights how such backlashes create new political movements, as seen after the Industrial Revolution. This era of change split societies along new ideological lines, much like the Left-Right division born from the French Revolution, illustrating the cyclical nature of societal reactions to radical change. These three forces – technology, economics, identity – together almost always generate backlash that produces a new politics. Human beings can absorb only so much change so fast. The old politics inherited from a prior era often cannot keep pace. Societies must navigate the delicate balance between embracing progress and preserving essential aspects of their identity. This tension shapes political landscapes.

In summary, the theme underscores how societies grapple with the tension between progress and tradition, and how this tension fuels political shifts. It reminds us that history is not a linear march forward but a complex interplay of adaptation and resistance. Zakaria’s exploration of backlash against rapid change highlights the cyclical nature of societal reactions. It serves as a reminder that history is multifaceted, shaped by both adaptation and resistance. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for comprehending our present and anticipating the future.

Theme Three: Economic Modernization and Social Disruption

Zakaria highlights how economic modernization, exemplified by the Industrial Revolution, has consistently triggered social upheaval. While the Industrial Revolution significantly increased productivity, it also brought about profound changes. Urbanization accelerated, labor dynamics shifted, and traditional ways of life were disrupted. The transition from agrarian societies to industrialized urban centers reshaped communities and relationships. Interestingly, Zakaria argues that the modernization process in the United States had a more profound impact on society than even the American Revolution. While the latter focused on political independence, the former transformed the fabric of everyday life. The rise of factories, mass production, and new technologies altered work patterns, family structures, and social hierarchies.

Economic modernization often left many individuals behind. As industries boomed, some segments of the population faced unemployment, exploitation, and poverty. The stark contrast between the wealthy elite and the struggling working class fueled discontent. Movements like European socialism and American populism emerged in response, advocating for reforms to address these inequities. Zakaria’s exploration of economic modernization underscores the delicate balance between progress and its unintended consequences. While modernization brings prosperity and innovation, it also disrupts established norms and creates winners and losers. Understanding this tension is crucial for policymakers and societies as they navigate the complexities of economic change.

In summary, the theme sheds light on the transformative power of economic shifts and their impact on social structures. It serves as a reminder that progress must be accompanied by measures to mitigate disruptions and ensure a more equitable distribution of benefits.

Theme Four: Impact of Globalization

Zakaria acknowledges that globalization has fostered economic growth and raised incomes. However, it also brings significant disruptions. As global markets integrate, certain groups face economic hardships. The benefits of globalization are not evenly distributed, leading to disparities and discontent. The integration of markets can lead to financial crises. Historical events like the Great Depression and the financial panic of 1873 serve as cautionary tales. These prolonged economic downturns reshape economic policies and societal attitudes toward globalization and free trade. Zakaria’s exploration of globalization highlights its complexity. While it offers opportunities for prosperity, it also poses challenges. Balancing economic growth with social stability remains a delicate task.

In summary, globalization is a double-edged sword – a force for progress and disruption simultaneously. Understanding its impact is crucial for shaping policies that address both economic growth and social well-being.

Theme Five: Technological Revolutions and Societal Change

Technological advancements continuously reshape societies, driving both progress and upheaval. The digital revolution, much like the advent of the printing press, has increased productivity and democratized information but also intensified social polarization and misinformation. Zakaria’s analysis underscores how technological revolutions disrupt established norms and create new societal challenges, highlighting the ongoing struggle to balance innovation with social cohesion.

Zakaria situates the digital revolution within a broader historical context. Just as the Gutenberg printing press revolutionized Europe, the internet has reshaped our world. However, he notes that while Western societies embraced these changes, non-Western countries retained primary oral cultures for longer. Alongside technological advancements, Zakaria explores the impact on identity. How do digital platforms shape our sense of self and belonging? Social media, for instance, influences how we present ourselves, connect with others, and perceive the world. The tension between individual expression and collective identity remains a central theme.

In summary, Zakaria’s analysis underscores the complex interplay between technological revolutions and societal dynamics. As we navigate this age of rapid change, finding equilibrium between progress and cohesion remains an ongoing challenge

Theme Six: Global Crises and Economic Policies

Major economic crises often lead to significant shifts in economic policies and political ideologies. The 2008 global financial crisis was a seismic event that reverberated across economies, institutions, and households. Initially, it triggered a surge in leftist movements. People questioned the unfettered free-market approach that had contributed to the crisis. However, the aftermath revealed a different trajectory. Right-wing populism gained ground, fueled by anti-establishment sentiments and a desire for strong leadership. The crisis exposed vulnerabilities in interconnected global systems, emphasizing the need for systemic reforms.

Governments responded with unprecedented interventions. Bailouts, stimulus packages, and regulatory reforms became essential tools. The crisis challenged the orthodoxy of laissez-faire economics. Policymakers reevaluated the role of the state in economic affairs, while calls for state intervention grew louder. Prioritizing national interests over global market forces gained prominence, and a delicate balance emerged: How much regulation is necessary without stifling innovation? The crisis also blurred ideological lines. Populist leaders exploited public discontent, promising protectionism and nationalism. Left-wing parties grappled with their identity, with some embracing social democracy, while others moved toward centrist positions. The clash between globalists and nationalists intensified, and economic nationalism gained traction. Ideological polarization deepened, affecting electoral outcomes and policy debates.

In summary, economic crises reshape societies, prompting shifts in policies and ideologies. The 2008 crisis initially energized the left but ultimately fueled right-wing populism. State intervention and national priorities gained prominence. As we navigate the pandemic-induced crisis, finding equilibrium between market forces and social welfare remains critical.

Theme Seven: Rise and Fall of Dominant Powers

Zakaria examines historical examples of dominant powers, including the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These nations achieved prominence through innovation, economic prowess, and strategic positioning during their respective eras. Their dominance was closely tied to their ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Zakaria emphasizes that adaptability is crucial for maintaining global leadership. When dominant powers fail to adjust to new technological, economic, or geopolitical paradigms, their decline becomes inevitable. Economic stagnation and social upheaval often signal the beginning of the end for once-dominant nations.

Economic shifts, technological disruptions, and social transformations constantly challenge established powers. The ability to innovate, restructure, and reinvent is essential for staying ahead, while failure to adapt can lead to loss of influence, as seen in historical examples. Today, we face similar challenges. The rise of emerging economies, technological advancements, and shifting global dynamics demand adaptability. China’s ascent, for instance, reflects its ability to harness innovation and adapt its economic model. The United States, once a dominant power, must navigate these changes to maintain its position. Zakaria’s analysis serves as a reminder for leaders and policymakers. They must anticipate shifts, invest in education, research, and infrastructure, and foster a culture of adaptability. The rise and fall of dominant powers are not predetermined; they hinge on deliberate choices.

In summary, Zakaria’s exploration underscores that adaptability is the linchpin of global dominance. Whether a nation rises or falls depends on its capacity to evolve with the times, embrace change, and navigate complex challenges

Theme Eight: Cultural and Identity Politics

Cultural and identity politics are pivotal in shaping societal reactions to change. Movements resisting modernization often draw on traditional values and religious fundamentalism. These dynamics are not exclusive to any specific era, they persist across history. In the United States, industrialization triggered significant societal shifts. Rather than adopting secular Marxist ideologies, the response was rooted in traditional and religious values. This shaped labor movements, social reforms, and political debates. Debates over immigration, nationalism, and globalization reveal deep-seated tensions. Questions of who belongs, cultural preservation, and national identity remain contentious.

Beyond the U.S., similar dynamics occur worldwide. Cultural conservatism often clashes with progressive forces seeking change, and balancing tradition and adaptation is an ongoing struggle. Leaders must navigate these complexities. Acknowledging cultural diversity while fostering unity is essential. Policies should address identity-based grievances without exacerbating divisions. The interplay between cultural heritage and modernity defines our collective journey.

In summary, cultural and identity politics influence societal reactions to change. Whether embracing or resisting transformation, understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and citizens alike.

Now let’s compare these historical perspectives with authors who have recently written about history and what it might mean to our future.

THE CONSERVATIVE FUTURIST

While Zakaria emphasizes the social and political disruptions caused by rapid change, James Pethokoukis, in his book The Conservative Futurist, offers a more optimistic perspective. Pethokoukis argues that human ingenuity and free-market dynamism can harness technological advancements to create a future of abundance and progress. This viewpoint emphasizes the importance of fostering an environment that encourages innovation and adaptation, allowing societies to navigate the challenges of change while reaping the benefits of technological progress. However, Pethokoukis identifies a shift in the cultural landscape. America, once a beacon of optimistic futurism, seems to have grown wary of progress. Fear of job displacement by AI, environmental anxieties, and economic stagnation have replaced the can-do spirit. While Pethokoukis offers a more optimistic view of technological change, it’s worth noting that he likely agrees with Zakaria on the disruptive nature of change in the short term.

THE LOOM OF TIME

Robert D. Kaplan, in his book The Loom of Time, offers a counterpoint to Zakaria’s analysis by emphasizing the enduring influence of history and geography on global dynamics. Kaplan argues that understanding these factors is essential for navigating the complexities of international relations. He also advocates for a realist approach to foreign policy, acknowledging the limitations of promoting democracy universally. This perspective highlights the importance of considering historical context and regional realities when engaging with other nations. Additionally, Kaplan warns of the dangers of state fragility and the potential for anarchy in the absence of strong central authority. This sheds light on the challenges associated with rapid economic and social change, emphasizing the need for robust institutions to maintain order and stability.

Just as a weaver carefully intertwines threads to create intricate patterns, so too does history unfold through the interconnection of civilizations, cultures, and events. The loom of time captures the dynamic and interconnected nature of human history, showing how the actions and interactions of societies weave together to create the fabric of our collective past. Here again, history is very instructive. Robert D. Kaplan delves into the complexities of the Greater Middle East, a vast region stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to China. He argues that this region has a long history of oscillating between periods of imperial rule and periods of instability, a dynamic he believes will likely continue in the 21st century.

THE TECHNOLOGY TRAP

Carl Benedikt Frey, in his book The Technology Trap, offers a critical perspective on the impact of technological change. Frey argues that automation, while a historical trend, now presents a significant challenge due to its potential to displace a large swathe of middle-income jobs. This highlights the need for proactive policies to address potential mass unemployment and rising inequality. Frey emphasizes that while technological advancements have historically led to long-term prosperity, the short-term social disruptions can be severe. This aligns with the concept of societal backlash explored by Zakaria. Frey’s work underscores the importance of social safety nets and education systems that can equip workers with the skills necessary to adapt to the evolving job market. Additionally, his focus on the rise of “superstars” and widening inequality adds another layer of complexity to the social and political ramifications of rapid technological change.

Frey takes us on a journey from pre-industrial times to our current day. Innovation flourished in pre-industrial times – but labor-replacing technology was blocked by the ruling class to avoid societal unrest. It took a competitive trade environment to shift that prevailing view of technology. As the factory system replaced the domestic system in Britain, technology increasingly became labor-replacing. In the early days of the Industrial Revolution, the working class suffered through a period of human misery. The Revolution saw a paradox: rapid economic growth alongside stagnant wages for workers. This period of hardship, known as Engel’s pause, fueled the ideas of Karl Marx.

BLOOD IN THE MACHINE

Brian Merchant, in his book Blood in the Machine, provides an historical lens to our understanding of automation. By exploring the struggles of the Luddite movement, Merchant reminds us of the recurring anxieties surrounding technological unemployment and the potential for worker displacement. This strengthens the argument for considering the human cost of progress alongside its economic benefits. The book also sheds light on the historical power struggles between workers and those wielding technological advancements. This aligns with the theme of cultural and identity politics explored by Zakaria. Merchant emphasizes the importance of worker solidarity and adaptation in the face of automation. His work suggests that by focusing on education and collective action, workers can play a more active role in shaping the future of technology and ensuring it benefits all of society.

Merchant focused on a story of the Industrial Revolution that often goes untold: alongside every major labor-saving innovation, a spasm of protest burst out from the workers whose lives it disrupted. We get a view of the times through the eyes of those who fought against the machines, and those that tried to protect them and the factory system they enabled. As Mr. Merchant describes, it wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution, when automation began to intrude on livelihoods, that automation was seen as a threat to our humanity

SLOUCHING TOWARDS UTOPIA

Bradford DeLong, in his book Slouching Towards Utopia, offers a long-term historical perspective on economic development. DeLong argues that despite the disruptions and challenges highlighted by Zakaria, the 20th century witnessed a remarkable period of economic growth that significantly improved living standards for much of the world. He views the 140-year period between 1870 and 2010 as the most consequential years of all humanity’s centuries. In an earlier book by Robert J. Gordon (which I cover below), he told a similar story of a special century between 1870-1970. The common denominator is the starting point of 1870, or the start of the second industrial revolution. Both books tell a compelling story about a period of economic prosperity never seen in human history.

This underscores the potential of technological innovation and sound economic policies to drive progress. However, DeLong also acknowledges the persistence of inequality alongside economic growth. This aligns with the theme of cultural and identity politics explored by Zakaria. DeLong’s work suggests that ensuring broad-based prosperity and social stability requires addressing issues of inequality alongside technological advancements and economic development. His work also underscores the importance of history. Mr. DeLong shows us how the events of earlier periods drove outcomes in later periods. For example, the effectiveness of a command-and-control economy during World War I convinced some that the market was not the most effective way to run an economy. The war and following depression drove some individuals to pursue alternative governance models. While Lenin pursued a socialist economy, Benito Mussolini pursued Fascism. As the author states, “In much of continental Europe, the Depression reinforced reaction – which is to say, it reinforced the sense that Mussolini in Italy had it right, and that fascism was the way of the future and the best way to organize industrial societies.”

THE JOURNEY OF HUMANITY

Oded Galor, in his book The Journey of Humanity, complements Zakaria’s analysis by providing a long-term historical perspective on economic development. Galor argues that mass education, rather than just industrialization, was the crucial factor that unlocked sustained economic growth in the West. This sheds light on the importance of human capital development in navigating the challenges and opportunities of economic transformation. Additionally, Galor highlights the influence of geographical advantages on early economic development, adding another layer of complexity to the social and political dynamics explored by Zakaria. By understanding these historical factors, we gain a richer understanding of the forces that continue to shape global inequality and economic disparities.

Galor explores the origins of wealth and inequality. He takes a fascinating journey from our migration out of Africa, through the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions, to our modern day. Along the way, he describes how technological advancements and higher land productivity led to larger but not richer populations. The fact that improvements in our standard of living only occurred during a tiny stretch of recent human history – and the reasons why – are explored in detail. A somewhat perplexing fact that hunter-gatherers evidently lived longer, consumed a richer diet, worked less intensively, and suffered fewer infectious diseases, is echoed in the book titled Work by James Suzman.

THE RISE AND FALL OF AMERICAN GROWTH

Perhaps no book impacted me more than Robert J. Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth. It offers a distinct perspective that challenges some of the assumptions explored in Zakaria’s work. Gordon argues that the exceptional economic growth experienced by the United States in the past century was due to a confluence of unique factors and may not be easily replicated. This highlights the limitations of historical analogies when analyzing future economic trends. Additionally, Gordon emphasizes the transformative power of past technological revolutions, while suggesting that recent advancements may not hold the same growth potential. This adds a layer of complexity to the discussion of technological change explored by Zakaria. Furthermore, Gordon underscores the issue of rising inequality alongside growth, aligning with the social and political themes also explored by Zakaria. By integrating Gordon’s perspective, we gain a more nuanced understanding of the forces shaping growth and the challenges of navigating the future.

The special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what the author calls the great inventions (Electricity, Internal Combustion Engine, Telephone). The author concludes that the 1870-1970 century was unique in that many of the great inventions could only happen once. Mr. Gordon states that by 1970 the basic elements of our modern standard of living were already achieved. In making a compelling argument, Mr. Gordon dismisses the views of the many techno-optimists that see a return to productivity and enhanced well-being, as automation drives labor productivity and scarcity gives way to abundance.

THE FOURTH TURNING

Neil Howe’s work, particularly The Fourth Turning and its follow-up The Fourth Turning is Here, offers a unique cyclical theory of history. Howe proposes generational archetypes and recurring crisis points, including Fourth Turnings every 80-100 years. This cyclical lens adds another dimension to the analysis of political dynamics and power shifts explored by Zakaria. By understanding these generational cycles, we can gain insights into potential turning points and political realignments. Furthermore, Howe argues that Fourth Turnings, while disruptive, can also be catalysts for institutional renewal and national identity formation, which resonates with the cultural and identity politics explored by Zakaria. Howe emphasizes the importance of strong leadership and civic engagement during these crises, aligning with the overall message of Zakaria’s work. By understanding these cyclical patterns and fostering civic engagement, we can be better prepared to navigate the challenges and shape the future during potential turning points in history.

The author describes “turnings” as follow: First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.

The Fourth Turning was written in 1997 and accurately predicted some of the events that occurred in what the book refers to as a period of unraveling. If the cycle which has repeated itself six times was to do so again, we would have entered a crisis period somewhere prior to 2010. The crisis period would last one generation – moving towards a resolution that dramatically alters the social order by the late 2020s.

DESTINED FOR WAR

Graham Allison’s Destined for War offers a critical perspective on the theme of political dynamics and power shifts explored by Zakaria. Allison introduces the concept of Thucydides’s Trap, where a rising power threatens an established one, historically leading to war. This framework sheds light on the potential for conflict in the current geopolitical landscape, particularly between the United States and China. However, Allison doesn’t view war as inevitable. He emphasizes the dangers of miscalculation by both sides, which can escalate tensions. Allison also explores historical examples where rising and established powers found peaceful co-existence. This suggests that through clear communication, strategic thinking, and a commitment to diplomacy, nations can avoid falling into the trap of war and navigate the challenges of power transitions peacefully.

The geopolitical landscape of the next several years is dominated by the dynamics of a current world power (America) grappling with the rise of an emerging power (China). Here again history is instructive. Some have argued that a shift of this magnitude – when the reigning world power is challenged by an emerging power – inevitably ends in war.

HOW THE WORLD BECAME RICH

While Zakaria focuses on the dramatic political and social upheavals that reshaped the world from the late 18th to mid-19th centuries, Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin’s How the World Became Rich takes a longer view. They delve into the underlying factors that fostered economic growth and prosperity over a much broader timeframe. Both perspectives, however, offer valuable insights. Zakaria highlights how revolutions can create fertile ground for new ideas and institutions, potentially leading to economic dynamism. “How the World Became Rich” complements this by emphasizing the long-term importance of factors like secure property rights, cultural norms that encourage innovation, and infrastructure development – elements that revolutions can sometimes disrupt but are ultimately crucial for sustained economic progress.

HOW CAPITALISM ENDS

While Zakaria explores the historical context and outcomes of revolutions, How Capitalism Ends asks a more provocative question: what might bring an end to the dominant economic system of our time? Steve Paxton might argue that revolutions of the past were driven by societal pressures that emerged under the existing system. Could similar pressures – rising inequality, environmental concerns, or technological disruption – eventually lead to a more fundamental economic transformation? Whether capitalism undergoes a radical shift or not remains to be seen. However, by examining both these books, we gain a broader perspective on the potential for historical change, driven by both revolutionary upheaval and more gradual underlying currents.

Paxton describes how historical change is driven by technological development. Various economic structures arise and persist because they promote development at the then existing level. As technology develops, an economic structure that had previously promoted development may now hinder further development. In such a case, the economic structure will (eventually) give way, and a new economic structure will (eventually) emerge which promotes further development.

AGAINST THE WORLD

Tara Zahra’s Against the World delves into a period strikingly like our own. Following the devastation of World War I, a tide of anti-globalism rose, mirroring anxieties about job losses due to trade, immigration, and a perceived loss of national identity present today. Nationalistic movements gained traction, leading to isolationist policies and trade restrictions, much like the rise of nationalist populism in recent years.  However, crucial differences exist.  Unlike the simpler globalization focused on trade in goods during the interwar period, today’s world is intricately connected through technology and complex supply chains. Additionally, international institutions like the WTO and UN provide a framework for navigating globalization, a stark contrast to the pre-WWII era.

When a period looks like the past, it is helpful to understand the path of the prior period. In the story arc of the book, we learn about the drivers of anti-globalism sentiment. The build up to the era in question was the Gilded Age, which was an era in United States history that lasted roughly from 1877 to 1900. It was a period of significant economic growth and expansion, but also one of gross materialism, corruption and social inequality. That early age led to World War One, which planted the seeds of the story told by the book. Our current anti-globalism sentiment is rooted in the same dynamics as that period so long ago. The path the world took back then is a scary look into possible futures.

POWER AND PROGRESS

Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson’s Power and Progress offers a thought-provoking look at how technological advancements haven’t always translated to widespread prosperity.  The book argues, much like historical examples show, that technological progress can be a double-edged sword. Medieval agriculture’s bounty enriched the clergy while peasants lived in poverty, highlighting how societal structures determine who benefits from innovation. The book goes further, analyzing how the breakneck speed of modern innovation presents unique challenges. Automation disrupts jobs at an alarming rate, and the rise of AI throws entirely new questions into the mix, demanding solutions far beyond those needed in past eras.

The authors explore a thousand years of history and contemporary evidence, making the case that progress depends on the choices we make about technology. This journey through the Middle Ages and industrial revolutions illuminates the point around choices. The path that technology takes is not predetermined or inevitable. Both in times of human misery and prosperity, it is human choice that defines an era. The authors take these historical signals and apply them to this emerging age of AI. Will we strive for machine intelligence and the automation that follows, or will we seek machine usefulness and the expanded possibilities it represents?

SEVEN CRASHES

Harold James’ Seven Crashes delves into the unnerving familiarity of financial crises throughout history. The book lays bare the repetitive cycle of booms and busts, highlighting how past meltdowns echo the vulnerabilities present in today’s global financial system.  James doesn’t just explore the economic fallout, but also the social and political upheaval triggered by crashes, mirroring historical events where economic hardship fueled unrest.  However, “Seven Crashes” offers a fresh perspective by potentially classifying crashes based on their root causes and analyzing how globalization, a non-factor in many historical crises, now significantly influences both the triggers and potential solutions.

The book examines seven turning points in financial history, from the depression of the 1840s through the Great Depression of the 1930s to the Covid-19 crisis. James shows how some crises prompted by a lack of supply, like the oil shortages of the 1970s, lead to greater globalization as markets expand and producers innovate to increase supply. In contrast, other crises, such as the Great Depression, led to a smaller, less prosperous world. The author explores the question of why some shocks foster globalization, while others seem to reverse globalization.

CONCLUSION

The books we’ve explored paint a powerful picture: history offers a treasure trove of lessons for navigating the complexities of our present. From the rise of anti-globalism to the double-edged sword of technological progress, and the unnerving echoes of financial crises, understanding the past empowers us to shape a better future. By learning from both the successes and failures of those who came before us, we can foster a more equitable, prosperous, and resilient society.  This doesn’t mean simply repeating the past, but rather using its wisdom to chart a new course – a course informed by historical knowledge and driven by a collective will to create a brighter tomorrow.